Forum: Richard Fun House

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 05:45:48 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 200545
SWODY2
SPC AC 200543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and
severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late
Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe
wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of the
Carolinas and Georgia.

...NE into northern KS...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will develop over the northern to
central Plains on Friday, as a surface trough develops over the High
Plains. This will result in directional shear with elongated
hodographs featuring 50 kt effective deep-layer shear. Storms are
expected to develop near the low-level lapse rate plume during the
late afternoon over central to western NE, with cells moving
southeastward into the mid 60s F dewpoints and producing very large
hail. Isolated significant wind gusts may also occur if
storms/outflows merge, possibly extending into northern KS during
the evening. Overall storm coverage is uncertain, but at least
scattered cells appear likely, with high conditional risk of severe
hail/wind.

...Carolinas...GA...
A very moist and unstable air mass is forecast over the region on
Friday, near a surface trough and south of a cold front pushing into
NC. Numerous storms are forecast to develop after 20Z, within a weak shear/strong instability environment. MLCAPE is forecast to be over
3000 J/kg, supporting vigorous updrafts and locally severe
microbursts and outflows.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 17:24:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 201724
SWODY2
SPC AC 201722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and
severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains late
Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe
wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest
and Southeast.

...Central Plains...

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the
region on Friday. Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
will shift east across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley.
A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will be in place within east/southeast low-level flow across portions of KS/NE ahead of a
west-to-east oriented surface boundary. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast by late afternoon into evening, supporting
widely scattered thunderstorm development near the surface boundary.
Vertically veering wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs
and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support initial
supercells. Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches
diameter) will be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster
could develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS. Some
potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph) will be possible
given large instability and steep low-level lapse rates.

It is uncertain how far south the severe risk will persist into the
overnight hours. Forecast guidance, including CAMs, vary
considerably, but some potential could spread into parts of northern
OK late Friday/early Saturday. For now, have extended the Marginal
risk southward across KS to account for conditional severe
potential.

...IA/WI/IL...

Northwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase on Friday as an
upper trough deepens over the Midwest. Cooling aloft will also
result in areas of steepening midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally
moist airmass ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This
will aid in a corridor of moderate to strong destabilization across
portions of IA into northern IL and southern/eastern WI. Vertical
wind profiles will support supercell thunderstorms capable of large
hail and strong wind gusts. The southward extent of the risk into
central IL is a bit uncertain, but some risk could persist into late
evening.

...Southeast/Carolinas...

A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place in the
vicinity of a surface trough Friday afternoon. Strong heating and
weak confluence will aid in thunderstorm development along the
surface trough and higher terrain. Sufficient storm coverage could
result in clustering/forward propagating as storms move eastward
through the afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, weak vertical shear
will limit overall organization, but sporadic severe/damaging gusts
could occur from wet microbursts within the unstable/high PW
airmass.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 05:50:18 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 210550
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ARKANSAS AND VICINITY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible in the Ohio Valley and Arkansas
vicinity. Severe gusts are possible across the central High Plains
and northern Idaho into western Montana.

...Northern Idaho and western Montana...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest on
Saturday with modest diffluence ahead of it during the day. Strong
heating should result in steep lapse rates and weak instability
across the region. Storms should develop over the mountains by
midday and advance northeast. As 6km flow strengthens to ~40 knots
by mid-afternoon, adequate shear should be in place for a few
organized storms. The steep lapse rates and inverted-v thermodynamic
profile will support severe wind gusts as the primary threat.

...Central High Plains...
Diurnal, terrain driven thunderstorms will develop by early
afternoon and eventually move into the adjacent Plains by late afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to potentially
strong instability across the Plains with moderately steep lapse
rates and dewpoints perhaps into the low 60s. The primary limiting
factor will be shear with less than 30 knots of flow below 300mb.
However, enough flow should be present, when combined with the
moderate to strong instability, to support some storms capable of
severe wind gusts.

...Arkansas and Vicinity...
The most favorable environment across the CONUS on Saturday appears
to be from eastern Kansas to Arkansas beneath a belt of stronger
mid-level flow where moderate to strong instability may also be in
place. This environment would even support supercells. However,
storm coverage remains uncertain. Added a small 5% in the Arkansas
vicinity where at least isolated storms appear most likely. However,
with relatively nebulous forcing, perhaps related to remaining
convection from Friday, confidence is low where the strongest storms
may occur.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Saturday and become negatively tilted toward the end of the period.
As this occurs, a surface low will deepen somewhat across southern
Ontario with a cold front sweeping across Ohio and northern Kentucky
through the day. Despite relatively weak heating across the region
due to extensive cloud cover, moderate instability is forecast to
develop amid upper 60s dewpoints and cooling temperatures aloft.
This, combined with 25 to 30 knots of shear, should be sufficient
for multicells and occasional supercells capable of primarily
damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 17:28:32 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 211728
SWODY2
SPC AC 211726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE FRONT RANGE INTO CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS...MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND ADJACENT LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms may impact a corridor from near the northern
Rockies into the southeastern Great Plains, as well as the middle
and upper Ohio Valley vicinity, Saturday. These may pose at least
some potential to produce severe wind and hail.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the increasingly deformed remnants of a
mid-level low will be forced inland across the northern U.S. Pacific
coast during this period, with a still vigorous remnant perturbation approaching the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late Saturday
night. Downstream, the center of a prominent mid-level ridge is
forecast to slowly shift across and east of the southern Rockies,
with amplified ridging within the westerlies to the north
overspreading much the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great
Plains.

To the east of this ridging, it appears that large-scale troughing
will undergo further amplification across areas east of the
Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this
regime, guidance indicates that one vigorous short wave impulse will
dig southeast of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes through the
upper Ohio Valley by late Saturday night, trailed by a similar
strength impulse across northwestern Ontario toward the northern
Great Lakes vicinity. These are likely to be preceded by at least a
couple of increasingly sheared perturbations, including one
generally forecast to accelerate northeastward offshore of the
southern Mid Atlantic coast early in the period.

Near the southwestern flank of the larger-scale troughing, a
convectively generated or augmented perturbation might maintain
strength within modest north-northwesterly flow, around the eastern
periphery of the stronger mid-level ridging, across the southeastern
Great Plains toward northwestern Gulf coast.

In lower-levels, it appears that the leading edge of a series of
surges of cooler air, probably reinforced by convective outflow
across at least portions of the Great Plains, may reach central
Texas and northern portions of the remainder of the Gulf Coast into
southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Sunday. This is expected in
the wake of a modestly deepening surface low to the north of the
lower Great Lakes, and a weaker secondary low developing
near/offshore of the Mid Atlantic.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
In advance of the vigorous lead digging short wave trough, and an
associated influx of surface cooling, a corridor of low-level
moistening may contribute to potential for moderate boundary-layer destabilization by late afternoon. It appears that this will have
to occur in the wake of early period warm advection driven
convective cloud cover and precipitation likely to overspread the
region. However, breaks in the cloud cover and the onset of cooling
aloft may become sufficient to support scattered vigorous
thunderstorm development. Despite generally modest to weak vertical
shear, modest steepening of lower into mid-level lapse rates of
temperature and potential wet-bulb temperature may be sufficient to
contribute to profiles conducive to localized downbursts, in
addition to marginally severe hail.

...Front Range into southeastern Great Plains...
Latest convection-allowing guidance and other model output remains
rather varied concerning the potential evolution of storms and the
associated risk for severe weather through this period. However,
there do appear at least a couple of corridors with a somewhat
higher likelihood for thunderstorm initiation and organization
Saturday through Saturday night.

One may develop on the eastern periphery of the mid-level high
across the southeastern Great Plains, where stronger
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may focus near the nose of an increasingly suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air. Wind fields/vertical shear may be modest to weak, but a corridor of
higher low-level moisture content may support storm inflow with
large CAPE ahead of a remnant convective perturbation, supporting
potential for the evolution of an intensifying and organizing south/southwestward propagating storm cluster with risk for severe
hail and wind.

Another may focus in moistening upslope flow along/east of the
Laramie mountains through Colorado Front Range by late Saturday
afternoon. Perhaps aided by a weak short wave impulse slowly
pivoting across this region, around the periphery of the mid-level
high, convection may consolidate into an intensifying and organizing
cluster propagating into the adjacent Great Plains by Saturday
evening, aided by updraft inflow of air characterized by moderately
large CAPE.

...Eastern Idaho into western Montana...
Multiple waves of scattered thunderstorm development appear possible
across the region Saturday into Saturday night, ahead of the inland
advancing short wave trough. In the wake of an initial round of overnight/early period convection, models suggest that boundary
layer moistening will be sufficient to support increasing, though
still rather modest to weak, CAPE with heating and deep mixing by
late Saturday afternoon. Still, thermodynamic profiles may become
conducive to a few localized downbursts into Saturday evening.

..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 05:59:26 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
MONTANA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the
Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.

...Montana...
A deamplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Pacific
Northwest into eastern British Columbia on Sunday. As this occurs, a
lee cyclone across Montana will advect moisture northwestward into
central Montana with some 60F dewpoints expected. Moderate mid-level
flow along the southern periphery of this mid-level trough will
overspread a weak to moderately unstable airmass across Montana. The
majority of the forcing will be farther north across Canada,
however, weak height falls and terrain driven circulations should be
sufficient enough for storm development by mid-afternoon across
central Montana. 30 to 35 knots of shear should be sufficient for
storm organization including some supercell potential. In addition,
strong heating will result in steep lapse rates and an environment
supporting damaging winds.

...Dakotas...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast across
central South Dakota and vicinity on Sunday afternoon, southwest of
a frontal zone. Persistent southwesterly 1km flow is expected for
much of the day. Isentropic ascent within this zone will support the
potential for thunderstorms for much of the day. Thunderstorm coverage/intensity may increase as a mid-level shortwave trough
approaches the region during the afternoon. In addition, the
low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening which
will result in more widespread storm development. The environment,
featuring moderate to strong instability and 35-45 kts of effective
shear, within a zone of moderate forcing, may result in some strong
storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast...
A strong mid-level trough across the Great Lakes will become a
closed upper low across southern Ontario on Sunday. An individual
mid-level trough revolving around the primary trough will become
negatively tilted as it pivots through the Northeast. A secondary
mid-level shortwave trough will dig into the western portion of this
trough and emerge around the base of the trough late Sunday evening.
These features amid the deepening upper low will result in
persistent ascent across the region where weak instability will also
be present. Shear may be relatively weak (20 to 25 knots), which may
limit overall storm organization. However, the cool temperatures
aloft should be sufficient for isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

...Arkansas and Vicinity...
Most guidance shows a moderate low-level jet and isentropic ascent
across eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas late Sunday night and
early Monday. Forecast soundings, other than the HiRes NAM, show
relatively meager instability. Therefore, while thunderstorms are
likely along this zone given the strong forcing, severe storms may
struggle amid relatively weak instability. Therefore, no
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 17:33:06 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 221732
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
and Great Plains, and across parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the
Northeast, Sunday through Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as an upper
trough slowly traverses the Northeast tomorrow (Sunday). A mid-level
impulse will crest the upper ridge tomorrow afternoon across the
northern Rockies while a small impulse embedded in the
aforementioned upper trough overspreads the northern Appalachians.
From the northern Rockies to northern High Plains, as well as parts
of the Northeast, stronger flow above the boundary layer will
promote adequate vertical wind shear, in tandem with buoyancy, to
promote strong to severe thunderstorms. Elsewhere from the central
Rockies to the Gulf/Carolina coastlines, strong surface heating amid
pockets of low-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm
development, with an isolated severe storm possible.

...Northern Rockies...
By mid to late afternoon, a well-mixed boundary layer should develop
beneath a plume of cooler temperatures aloft (e.g. 8+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates) with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level
impulse. A belt of stronger mid- to -upper level westerly flow will
also accompany this impulse, resulting in elongated hodographs and
30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear coinciding with the steep
low- and mid-level lapse rates. Multicells and transient supercells
should develop, accompanied by a risk of severe gusts and perhaps an
instance or two of hail. A gust over 75 mph is possible.

...Northern High Plains into South Dakota...
Convective evolution and morphology remains unclear in this region.
Steep lapse rates will emanate from the northern Rockies and
overspread a moistening warm sector (e.g. mid 60s F dewpoints),
yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Modestly curved and elongated hodographs
suggest multicells and supercells as the main storm mode, at least
initially. Severe gusts/hail would accompany these storms if they
can become sustained. There is also some indication by the latest
CAMS that storms may merge into a cold-pool-driven MCS, though
guidance consensus is weak on this scenario. Nonetheless, any MCS
development that does occur would support severe gusts, including a
75+ mph gust.

...Portions of the eastern Great Basin to the central Rockies...
A cluster of multicell storms should develop around the eastern
Great Basin into the central Rockies by afternoon peak heating.
Stronger flow aloft will glance the region to the north, atop a
strongly mixed boundary layer. Forecast soundings show classic
inverted-V profiles extending to 500 mb, with surface-500 mb lapse
rates reaching at least 9 C/km. As such, severe gusts are possible
with the stronger multicells that form.

...Portions of the Northern Appalachians into New England...
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm well into the 70s F
as earlier showers and thunderstorms make way for at least partly
clearing skies. While not overly steep, mid-level lapse rates
exceeding 6.5 C/km will result in marginal buoyancy, amid stronger
flow aloft (yielding elongated hodographs). A couple instances of
damaging gusts/hail will be possible with the stronger multicells
that manage to sustain themselves.

...Gulf to Carolina Coastlines...
A heated and moist boundary layer should develop by afternoon given
the presence of mid 70s F surface dewpoints and temperatures rising
well into the 80s F. Such rich low-level moisture will support
2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from LA to extreme eastern NC despite
mid-level lapse rates only reaching 6-6.5 C/km. Across the Gulf
Coast, pulse-cellular storms are expected given weak flow aloft,
with damaging gusts originated from wet downbursts the main threat.
Along the Carolina Coastline, southwesterly mid-level flow will be a
bit stronger given the upper trough glancing by to the north.
Multicells capable of isolated severe gusts are possible. Locally
higher severe probabilities may be needed in future Day 1 outlooks
if greater storm coverage becomes apparent.

...Portions of southern Arizona...
Locally stronger southeasterly mid-level flow will pivot around the
upper ridge and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer by late afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, surface temperatures around 100
F, amid 60 F surface dewpoints and overspread by modestly cooler
temperatures aloft, will yield 9+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates and
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the modest flow aloft and
aforementioned buoyancy, a few organized multicells may occur,
accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 05:53:36 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 230553
SWODY2
SPC AC 230551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible
across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern
Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may
also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to
the eastern Carolinas.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Canadian prairies on
Monday with some weak height falls overspreading North Dakota and
northern South Dakota. A weak surface low will accompany this trough
with a cold front extending into the Dakotas. Moderate to
potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this cold front.
Subtle forcing from the height falls and weak convergence along the
front may support isolated storms during the afternoon/evening.
Long/straight hodographs would support supercells capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts. Steep lapse rates will support some
potential for 75+ mph wind gusts. In addition, if any longer lived
supercells can develop, 2+ inch hail is also possible. Stronger
forcing, hinted at by the more amplified mid-level trough on the 00Z
NAM, would support greater storm coverage and potentially greater
hail/wind probabilities in later outlooks.

...Northern Great Basin into the central High Plains...
Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop over the higher
terrain from the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies. As
storms move into the adjacent Plains, where strong heating and steep
lapse rates are forecast, severe wind gusts are possible. Storm mode
will be single cell to multicell, with only 15 to 25 knots of shear
across the region. However, the thermodynamic profile will support
an isolated severe wind threat.

...Southeast...
Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s amid mid 70s F dewpoints will
yield MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg from Louisiana to the North Carolina
coast. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough moisture-fueled
buoyancy will support the potential for wet downbursts capable of
damaging gusts during the afternoon.

...Maine...
Deep-layer ascent ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough
will support scattered thunderstorm development during the late
morning into the afternoon hours across central and northern Maine.
A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will pivot around the
upper trough and overspread Maine during the afternoon, when
buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750 J/kg with over 50
kts of effective bulk/speed shear. Therefore, any storms that
develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in
nature, posting an isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the
afternoon.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 17:30:42 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing scattered severe gusts appear likely across
the central High Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow
(Monday). Isolated severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a
damaging/severe gust or sparse hail threat, may also occur across
parts of the Northern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, the
Gulf to Carolina Coastline, and Maine.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the western and central U.S. as an
upper trough is poised to traverse the Northeast and impinge on the
Atlantic tomorrow (Monday). A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough
will crest the ridge and eject into the northern Plains by tomorrow
afternoon, encouraging surface lee troughing along the central High
Plains to the U.S./Canada border. Adequate low-level moisture
advection northward across the Plains, beneath seasonably cooler
temperatures aloft, in conjunction with stronger mid-level flow (and
thus vertical wind shear), will encourage strong to severe
thunderstorm potential over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, some
severe threat may exist with storms across the northern Great Basin,
Maine, and parts of the Gulf coastline.

...Northern Plains to the central High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected develop
ahead of a surface lee trough from the Canadian border to the
southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. Mid to upper flow will be
strongest across the northern High Plains into the northern Plains,
where 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow will support similar values
of effective bulk shear. The latest high-resolution guidance
consensus depicts a higher density cluster of multicells and perhaps
supercells developing somewhere around the Black Hills of SD and
propagating south-southeastward into NE. Given merging cold pools,
scattered severe gusts are possible, along with a couple instances
of severe hail. Closer to the Canadian border, convective coverage
is less certain, though 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and modestly
curved/elongated forecast hodographs suggest supercell potential
exists in this area. An upgrade to a Slight Risk may be needed
pending guidance trends involving greater storm coverage.

Tropospheric flow across the southern to central High Plains will be
weaker compared to points farther north. However, the presence of a
dry boundary layer extending upward to at least 700 mb, amid 1000+
J/kg MLCAPE, should support some risk for dry downbursts with the
stronger storm cores, perhaps accompanied by an isolated severe gust
threat.

...Portions of the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies...
By afternoon peak heating, scattered high-based thunderstorms should
develop amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will
develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft (driven by a
departing mid-level shortwave trough), some organization is
possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some of which may pose
a severe gust threat. An upgrade to a Slight Risk may be needed if
guidance consensus trends upward in convective coverage.

...Maine...
By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will
encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in
marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly mid-
to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England
during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and
30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. As such, any storms that
can develop and become sustained should become organized multicells
capable of supporting a few damaging gusts.

...Portions of the Gulf to Carolina coastlines...
By late morning into the afternoon, the heating of a very moist
boundary layer (e.g. 70s F surface dewpoints) will yield 2000-4000
J/kg MLCAPE, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Once convective
temperatures are reached, several pulse storms and multicells will
develop, capable of producing wet downbursts and at least isolated
damaging gusts. Vertical wind shear will be locally stronger along
the NC coastline, where a supercell cannot be ruled out.

A consensus among CAMS depicts a relatively more organized cluster
of multicells emanating from a warm-air-advection regime across the
Ozark Valley, which will mature over southern MS into LA. Here,
there may be a locally denser cluster of damaging gusts, hence the
introduction of Category 2/Slight Risk severe wind probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 06:02:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 240602
SWODY2
SPC AC 240600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the
central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may also
occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
Upper Midwest on Tuesday with an associated surface low and cold
front moving across Minnesota and eventually into Wisconsin. Low 60s
dewpoints ahead of this cold front will result in weak to moderate
instability by mid-afternoon. Storm organization may be somewhat
lacking during the afternoon, but as the mid-level jet streak
overspreads the warm sector during the evening, a more favorable
environment is expected across northwest Wisconsin and vicinity.
Within this zone, a few supercells may occur during the evening with
a greater severe weather threat. However, the limited temporal and
spatial scale, and some concerns about storm coverage during this
timeframe, preclude Slight Risk issuance at this time.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast within a northwesterly
flow pattern across the central Plains. Weak height falls and strong
heating should result in scattered storm coverage across most of the
High Plains by the mid to late afternoon. 00Z guidance has trended
toward a stronger convective signal and greater instability across
southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Have shifted the Day 3 Slight
Risk area accordingly. While storms remain likely across much of
this region, the more organized severe threat will likely be near
the greatest instability.

...Southeast...
Moderate to strong heating is expected amid a very moist airmass
(mid 70s dewpoints) from the Gulf Coast to the GA/SC coast. Within
this zone, strong to isolated severe storms capable of water-loaded
downdrafts and some damaging wind potential are expected.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 17:11:34 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 241711
SWODY2
SPC AC 241709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow
(Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts
are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado
are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will dominate most of the CONUS as an upper trough
over the Northeast ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Tuesday).
Multiple embedded impulses are expected to pivot around the upper
ridge over the central U.S., encouraging surface troughing over the
Plains states. Low-level moisture advection beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft, along with modest forcing for ascent with the
surface trough, will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm
development across portions of the High Plains to the Upper MS
Valley.

...Portions of the central Plains...
Upslope flow of low-level moisture toward the higher
terrain/immediate lee of the Rockies will encourage thunderstorm
development tomorrow afternoon across the central High Plains. A
deep and relatively dry boundary layer will develop through the day,
with high-based pulse cellular and multicellular storms expected
(given relatively poor tropospheric vertical shear). Lapse rates
from the surface to 500 mb will reach the 8-9 C/km range, with
robust updrafts likely. These storms will quickly become outflow
dominant, leading to the cold-pool merger and the subsequent
organization of one or more loosely organized MCSs. Given steep
boundary layer lapse rates, efficient evaporative cooling will
promote the potential of severe gusts with the more organized storm
clusters, from far southern NE to the TX Panhandle.

...Parts of the Upper MS Valley...
By late afternoon, thunderstorms are poised to develop immediately
ahead of a surface trough as a 500 mb impulse and associated wind
maximum overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Surface dewpoints should
reach the low to mid 60s F, but will be overspread by modest
mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km), yielding 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast hodographs are elongated, with some low-level
curvature noted. Supercells are expected to be the main storm mode,
accompanied by a sparse risk of all severe convective hazards.

...Eastern parts of the Gulf Coast...
Pulse cellular storms will develop along the Gulf Coast again
tomorrow, where mid 70s F surface dewpoints will yield enough
buoyancy to support strong thunderstorms. MLCAPE will likely exceed
2000 J/kg over several locales, with PWATS well over 2 inches
expected. As such, water-loaded downdrafts will promote wet
microbursts capable of producing wind damage.

..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 05:57:50 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 250557
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe
gusts are the main threat across these regions.

...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow across the central High Plains will lead to moderate to
strong instability across much of eastern Colorado by Wednesday
afternoon. Strong heating and orographic ascent will result in
scattered storm development by late afternoon. Moderate
northwesterly flow aloft should result in 30 to 35 knots of
effective shear, sufficient for some supercell development. Large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with this storm
activity. The Slight Risk area is focused where the best combination
of shear and instability is expected. Farther north across Wyoming
flow should be stronger, but most guidance shows weaker instability.
Moderate to strong instability should extend into eastern New
Mexico. However, mid-level flow will be weaker and therefore, storm organization is less certain.

...Great Lakes...
A surface low will traverse northern Ontario on Wednesday with a
cold front extending southward into the western Great Lakes. Mid-60s
dewpoints are forecast to advect northward ahead of this cold front
which will lead to moderate to potentially strong instability.
Moderate mid-level northwesterly flow normal to the front should
provide sufficient shear and storm motion for a supercellular storm
mode. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat,
however, some tornado threat may also exist. Low-level hodographs
are small, but do show modest directional shear. This low-level
shear combined with a supercell storm mode may result in a tornado
or two.

...Lower MS Valley...
Several MCVs from Day 1/Tuesday convection may exist at 12Z
Wednesday across portions of the central Plains. As these features
move southeast toward the moist and unstable airmass across the
Ozarks and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, scattered thunderstorm development is likely. Relatively weak deep-layer flow may keep
storm mode relatively unorganized. However, the moist airmass and
moderate to strong instability, combined with one or more MCVs as a
forcing mechanism should combine for some damaging wind threat from water-loaded downdrafts Wednesday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 08/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 17:07:56 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 251659
SWODY2
SPC AC 251658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE MIDWEST...AND THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley.
Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions,
though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High
Plains.

...Mid-MS Valley to Lower MI/northwest OH...

An upper trough will modestly deepen as it pivots across the region
on Wednesday. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
area as a surface low and trailing cold front move east/southeast
through early Thursday. A plume of mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are
forecast ahead of the surface front across MO/IL/IN and into lower
MI/northwest OH. This will support moderate destabilization through
evening. Sufficient vertical shear for organized cells is expected,
with forecast soundings indicating 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes
and elongated/straight hodographs. Widely scattered convection will
pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail. Low-level hodographs are
somewhat small in forecast soundings, a tornado or two will be
possible (mainly across IN into southern Lower MI) where 0-1 km SRH
will be maximized near the surface front where low-level winds are
forecast to be more southerly.

...Ozarks/Lower MS Valley...

An MCV from prior day convection is forecast to be located near
northeast OK Wednesday morning. Downstream from this feature, a very
moist (70s dewpoints) and strongly unstable airmass will be in
place. Deep-layer west/westerly flow will remain modest, but some
local enhancement to shear aided by the MCV is possible. Scattered
convection will develop by early/mid afternoon. Given large
instability, high PW and potential for forward propagation via storm mergers/outflow interactions and sufficient storm coverage, wind
damage will be possible, and an upgrade to Slight (level 2 of 5)
risk has been included with the Day 2 update.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Modest deep-layer northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the
region on Wednesday. Low-level upslope flow within modest low-level
moisture and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will support scattered convection
developing near higher terrain during the afternoon. Effective shear
magnitudes around 20-30 kt will be sufficient for at least transient
organized updrafts. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated hodographs
above 3 km will support large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch
stones within sustained updrafts across eastern WY/CO where shear
will be strongest. Otherwise, steep lapse rates will support strong
outflow winds.

..Leitman.. 08/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 05:59:14 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 260558
SWODY2
SPC AC 260557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms.

...Mid Atlantic to the Northeast...
An embedded mid-level trough will rotate around a broader trough
across the Great Lakes. This embedded shortwave trough will advance
from near Lake Erie to the VT/NH region during the day Thursday. A
surface cold front will move from northern Ontario into Quebec with
a trailing cold front extending southward into the Great Lakes.
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this
front as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Mid-level flow
is not exceptionally strong, however, some stronger flow is evident
above 7km on forecast soundings. This wind profile will support a
predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, a few supercells
may also be possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat, but a tornado or two may also occur farther north
across eastern New York and vicinity where forecast soundings
exhibit some modest low-level veering.

...Central High Plains...
An amplified mid-level ridge will shift east toward the Plains on
Thursday. Low-level southerly flow will advect low 60s dewpoints
northward into western Nebraska and far southwest South Dakota. This
should result in moderate instability across the region. Forecast
soundings show a favorable environment for supercells with 40+ knots
of effective shear and 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, rising
heights associated with the eastward shifting ridge may keep
convection mostly suppressed. Nonetheless, isolated storms are
possible within this favorable environment which would support a
conditional 2+ inch hail and 75+ mph wind gust threat.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 17:15:36 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 261715
SWODY2
SPC AC 261713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms. Strong wind gusts and hail also may
occur over parts of the central Plains, and the Northern Rockies
vicinity.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

Upper troughing will persist over the eastern U.S., with the trough
axis remaining roughly oriented from the Lower Great Lakes toward
the central/southern Appalachians. This will result in modest
southwesterly deep-layer flow across region, with somewhat strong
vertical wind profiles expected across the Northeast (and decreasing
with southward extent across central/southern Appalachians). A
surface trough/weak front will extend from the Upper OH Valley
southward toward northern GA Thursday morning, with this feature
drifting eastward through early Friday. Southerly low-level flow
east of the surface trough/boundary, will maintain a seasonally
moist boundary layer (60s F dewpoints). This will support moderate destabilization across the region, with pockets of strong
instability possible near/west of the I-95 corridor from northern VA
into southern/central NY.

Vertically veering wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings,
with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggesting organized
storms structures and possible transient supercells. Damaging winds
and occasional hail will be the main hazards with storms through
Thursday evening. Low-level hodographs are somewhat small, but
favorably curved, with 0-1 km SRH approaching 100 m2/s2 where backed
low-level winds persist. Given the moist boundary layer and
sufficient steep low-level lapse rates, a tornado or two also will
be possible.

Vertical shear decreases with southward extent across the
Appalachians. However, high PW and sufficient instability will exist
that thunderstorm clusters could produce wet microbursts and
sporadic wind damage of marginal hail as far south as northeast
TN/northwest NC.

...Central Plains...

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on Thursday as
the western upper ridging begins to shift east over the High Plains.
This will likely suppress convective coverage somewhat. However,
modest vorticity maxima rotating through northwesterly flow aloft
and stronger heating across the modestly moist airmass, along with
possible outflow from prior convection will support isolated
thunderstorm development from the Black Hills southeast into
Nebraska. Elongated hodographs and effective shear around 35+ kt
amid steep midlevel lapse rates suggest large hail will be possible,
with some potential for hail greater than 2 inch diameter. Overall
storm coverage is expected to remain low, precluding higher severe probabilities.

Additional thunderstorms are possible with upslope flow along the CO
foothills vicinity. Weaker vertical shear is expected compared to
further north, but the environment will still support marginal hail
with stronger updrafts.

...Northern Rockies...

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase as an upper shortwave trough
moves eastward from the Pacific Northwest into MT and Alberta. Steep
midlevel lapse rates will support modest destabilization by early
afternoon and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop over higher terrain. Strong heating will result in deep
boundary layer mixing and steep low-level lapse rates. Given
stronger flow aloft, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible as convection develops east/northeast through early
evening.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 06:01:58 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia and the northern/central
Plains.

...North Georgia to the Carolinas...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop
south of a stalled cold front from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present.
Lapse rates will be quite weak (~6 C/km), but most guidance shows
temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should provide
pockets of moderate to strong instability. Effective shear is
forecast to be weak (15 to 20 knots), but only slight modifications
in the effective layer calculation result in significantly greater
effective shear (30 to 35 knots) given moderate to strong flow above
7km. Therefore, any storms that can take advantage of this stronger
flow aloft may be longer-lived and capable of some damaging wind
gusts.

...Central/Northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota
and Vicinity...
A mid-level ridge will slowly deamplify through the day on Friday
across the northern Plains. As this occurs, lee troughing will
strengthen through the day with a lee cyclone forecast to develop
across western South Dakota by early Saturday morning. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of the lee trough will advect low to
potentially mid 60s dewpoints into South Dakota. This will result in
moderate to potentially strong instability in the region. However,
most forecast soundings show the environment remaining capped for
much of the day which casts some doubt on diurnal storm coverage.
Some 00Z CAM guidance shows storms prior to 00Z across western
portions of the Marginal Risk area, but without strong forcing, it
is unclear if these storms will develop. Given the capped airmass,
the primary storm focus will likely be across northeast Nebraska and
eastern South Dakota, at the nose of the low-level jet where
warm-air advection will strengthen in the evening. Forecast
soundings show moderate to strong instability and strong shear
within this zone after 00Z. Large hail may be the primary threat in
the evening with the wind threat more dependent on potential upscale
growth.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 16:58:32 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 271658
SWODY2
SPC AC 271656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and Virginia, and the Dakotas.

...Northern/Central Plains...

Severe potential remains uncertain on Friday given upper ridging
over the region for much of the diurnal cycle, though the upper
ridge is expected to deampify during the evening/overnight period.
Capping may largely limit convection through much of the day.
However, surface troughing along the High Plains will strengthen
with potential for weak surface low development over southwest SD
during the evening. South/southeasterly low level flow will
transport 60s dewpoint across eastern NE into much of the Dakotas
east of the surface trough. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
will overspread the region atop the moistening boundary layer, and
moderate destabilization is expected. Convection may eventually
develop along the surface trough during the early evening as
stronger height falls occur. Supercell wind profiles with
elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings,
suggesting large hail will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates
are expected and strong outflow winds also could occur prior to
stronger nocturnal low-level stabilization.

A 40 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to spread
across NE into SD. This could support maintenance of convection
spreading east of the surface trough, with a continued risk of hail,
and possibly sporadic strong gusts if clustering/upscale growth can
occur.

...North Georgia into the southern Mid-Atlantic...

A very moist airmass will be in place along/east of a surface
trough. Stronger heating will result in moderate destabilization
within a weakly sheared environment. Multicell thunderstorms could
pose a risk for sporadic wet microbursts within a high PW
environment.

...Maine...

A few strong storms will be possible as a cold front shifts east
across New England through early evening. Strong southwesterly flow
aloft will result in around 30 kt effective shear magnitudes and
elongated hodographs. However, poor lapse rates and cooler afternoon temperatures will limit destabilization. Additionally, flow below
700 mb will remain rather modest. While gusty winds or small hail
could occur with the strongest storms, severe potential is expected
to remain low.

...Intermountain West...

Around 30-50 kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb will overspread
portions of the region as an upper shortwave impulse migrates from
NV into WY. Instability is expected to remain weak, modulated by
modest midlevel lapse rates and stronger heating remaining confined
to areas further south. Deep boundary layer mixing will still occur,
and could promote some potential for gusty outflow winds, but
overall severe potential appears low given limited instability.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 05:55:20 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 280554
SWODY2
SPC AC 280553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Great Basin and the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts are the main
threat.

...Synopsis...
The upper ridge that has remained stagnant across the Southwest into
the central U.S. will gradually drift toward the MS Valley tomorrow
(Saturday), resulting in the progression and amplification of a
mid-level trough over the Intermountain West. A surface lee trough
will gradually intensify east of the Rockies, with some potential
for surface low development over the northern High Plains. A belt of
stronger mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper
trough will overspread a relatively moist low-level airmass across
portions of the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. As such,
adequate buoyancy and vertical wind shear will be in place to
support at least scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.

...Portions of the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains...
A broad belt of 40-50 kt 500 mb flow will overspread the northern
Great Basin to ND through Saturday afternoon and evening, yielding
elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Furthermore, the approach of
the aforementioned upper trough will promote adequate QG ascent for
at least scattered thunderstorm development from the northern Great
Basin to the Dakotas. A relatively mixed boundary layer beneath the
broader region of stronger flow aloft and accompanying speed shear
will encourage at least isolated severe gust potential, hence the
introduction of broad Marginal Risk probabilities.

Across northern portions of the Great Basin, a relatively focused
corridor of severe wind potential exists immediately ahead of the
upper trough, where QG ascent will be strongest. NAM and RAP
forecast soundings disagree somewhat on thermodynamic profiles
across this region. RAP shows the presence of richer low-level
moisture (i.e. dewpoints over 60 F), amid 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, NAM depicts upper 40s F
low to 50s F dewpoints and slightly less steep mid-level lapse
rates. Nonetheless, both guidance members agree on showing over 1000
J/kg peak MLCAPE amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective
bulk shear, suggesting the potential for supercells. As such, a
Category 2/Slight Risk was introduced.

Across the Dakotas, immediately west of a surface low, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop amid moist low-level upslope
flow along the higher terrain. While mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to be overly steep in this region, these storms will
develop amid elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear, with supercell structures possible. Severe wind and hail are
currently the main hazards expected with these storms, with a Slight
Risk introduced.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 17:27:12 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 281727
SWODY2
SPC AC 281725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts
of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Severe wind gusts
are the main threat. Scattered severe storms are also likely across
portions of the northern High Plains, with potential for large hail
and damaging wind.

...Synopsis...
The axis of the western US ridge will shift eastward centering
across the Midwest D2/Saturday as a mid-level low digs southward
from the Pacific Northwest. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft
will overspread the region from the northern Great Basin into the
northern Rockies/Intermountain west. With the increase in mid-level
flow across the northern Rockies, lee troughing will increase across
the central/northern Plains, with a lee cyclone developing across
the western Dakotas.

...Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within a
broad region of greater ascent across the Northern Great Basin into
the Northern Rockies. Moisture will be primarily mid-level, with
deeply mixed profiles, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and
fairly large dew point spreads near the surface. Though boundary
layer moisture will be limited, steep lapse rates and heating will
support at least moderate instability by the afternoon. With 40-50
kt 500 mb flow aloft, sufficiently strong deep layer speed shear
will promote a few organized storms and transient supercells capable
of damaging wind and marginally severe hail.

...Northern High Plains...
Upslope flow near the surface low in the Dakotas should promote
development of thunderstorms near the Black Hills and across
portions of the high terrain in eastern Wyoming/southeastern
Montana. Strengthening southerly flow will bring moisture northward,
with moderate to strong instability developing by the afternoon
across the western/central Dakotas. Elongated and largely straight
hodographs and deep layer shear around 40 kts will support
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind.

Across eastern Wyoming, there is low confidence in a more organized
cluster evolving through time and moving into northern Nebraska.
Recent CAM guidance suggests a more focused corridor of severe wind
potential. The Marginal Risk was expanded southward to account for
this potential.

..Thornton.. 08/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 06:01:18 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind
and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around an upper ridge that
will gradually progress across the central and eastern CONUS
tomorrow (Sunday). A mid-level shortwave trough will crest the upper
ridge and impinge on the northern Plains while a smaller mid-level
impulse traverses the Great Lakes and a another shortwave trough
ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast. This upper air pattern
will encourage surface lee troughing over the Plains, accompanied by appreciable low-level moisture advection. Through the day, colder
temperatures aloft will overspread this low-level moisture,
resulting in increased buoyancy coinciding with an increase in
deep-layer shear and ascent to support at least isolated severe
thunderstorm development. The best chance for any severe storms will
be ahead of a cold front and along the warm front over the
central/northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley.

...Parts of the Upper MS Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a diffuse warm front by
late afternoon across far eastern ND into far northeast SD and
western MN. Mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be
particularly steep (e.g. 6.5-7 C/km). However, surface dewpoints
approaching 70 F will contribute to 1500-2500 J/kg of tall and thin
MLCAPE. Coinciding this buoyancy will be a strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet beneath an impinging 500 mb wind
maximum, yielding sizeable curved and elongated hodographs (e.g. 50
kts of effective bulk shear and over 200 m2/s2 ESRH), especially by
sunset. If a couple of supercells manage to develop along the warm
front, isolated severe wind/hail and perhaps a tornado or two could
occur. The potential for poor lapse rates and westward displacement
of the stronger forcing for ascent to the west precludes higher
severe probabilities this outlook.

...Central to northern Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to
late afternoon as the upper trough impinges on the region. Strong
flow aloft will overspread a dry boundary layer, which will support
relatively fast moving, high-based thunderstorms. Forecast soundings
depict a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE amid elongated, straight
hodographs, so multicellular storms are expected, accompanied by a
sparse severe gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 17:25:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 291725
SWODY2
SPC AC 291724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind
and hail threat, are possible across portions of the northern Plains
on Sunday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies on Sunday,
with upper low deepening over SK. This trough will bring increasing
wind fields and cooling aloft across the northern High Plains and
Dakotas late in the day and overnight. At the surface, low pressure
will develop during the afternoon from near the MT/ND border
southward into western SD ahead of a cold front, which will move
across the Dakotas overnight. A warm front will also extend eastward
from SD into southern MN, WI and Lower MI, where mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints are likely to exist.

Isolated elevated storms may be ongoing Sunday morning from parts of
southern MN into IA, WI and Lower MI, though models are quite
variable. Winds at 850 mb will be veered to west/southwest, and
height rises will occur throughout the day. As such, any activity
that does develop should remain disorganized, with low severe
chances if any.

During the afternoon, storms are most likely to develop along the
cold front from eastern MT into northeast WY, northwest SD, and into
much of ND. These may be mixed mode storms, as winds below 500 mb
will remain relatively weak, though high level winds will be
stronger. Scattered severe gusts or hail above 1.00" appear likely
through the night as activity pushes across ND and into northern MN.

Farther south, scattered strong to severe wind gusts may occur over
the central High Plains as high based convection moves off the high
terrain of CO/WY, aided by 30-40 kt midlevel westerlies. Steep
low-level lapse rates/deep mixed layers may support localized wind
potential.

..Jewell.. 08/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 05:55:26 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 300555
SWODY2
SPC AC 300553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible tomorrow (Monday) from the central Plains toward parts of
the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the central and eastern
CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with at least one low-amplitude mid-level
trough and several other smaller-scale impulses poised to pivot
around the upper ridge, overspreading the central High Plains to the
Northeast in the process. Given the presence of these impulses atop
a moist boundary layer, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected
all along the northern periphery of the ridge. While thunderstorms
will be more sparse over parts of the central Plains to the Midwest,
cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft overspreading the
aforementioned moist boundary layer will foster enough buoyancy and
shear to support a conditional severe threat.

...Central Plains to the Midwest...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the Upper MS Valley
while a smaller mid-level impulse impinges on the central High
Plains after dark. As such, upper support will be limited along an
effective warm frontal boundary extending from central NE to far
western WI during the day. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints
should exceed 70 F as 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are advected
overhead from the west, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore,
modest westerly mid-level flow will also contribute to 35-40 kts of
effective bulk shear, which is more than adequate for multicells and
supercells should a storm develop and mature. Severe wind and hail
would be the main threats with such a storm. Despite the favorable
kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space, the severe threat
remains quite conditional given the lack of upper support, as
suggested by CAMS, which show little in the way of storm coverage.
Given doubts on more than sparse storm coverage, only Marginal Risk probabilities remain in place.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 17:24:52 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 301724
SWODY2
SPC AC 301722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Sparse severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible Monday from the central Plains toward parts of the Upper
Midwest.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper low will move eastward across southern SK/MB on Monday,
with 40-50 kt midlevel winds spreading across the Northern Plains
and Upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, an upper high will centered from the
Ozarks to the Mid MS/Lower OH Valleys. Farther west, modest
southwest flow aloft will persist over much of the West, with a
stronger shortwave trough moving into CA late.

At the surface, low pressure will occlude over SK/MB, with dry
westerly winds over the Dakotas and into MN. South of this area, a
weak surface trough/wind shift will remain, roughly from WI into IA
and NE. Here, a moist air mass will exist, with 2000-3000 J/kg
MUCAPE from IA into WI and northern IL. Lesser CAPE values will
develop farther west across NE/KS/CO, with perhaps 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE.

Despite the larger instability over northern areas, forcing for
ascent will be weak. However, areas of uncapped air mass may
develop, possibly supporting isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
WI. Conditionally, hail over 1.00" will be possible. Additional
isolated activity is possible from IA into northern IL overnight.

A greater probability of thunderstorms in general will exist from CO
into NE as an upper wave aloft travels northeast across the region
late in the day. Strong heating over the central High Plains will
support afternoon initiation near the Front Range, with clusters of
storms producing strong to severe outflow, and propagating
northeastward into NE. Initial activity could also produce
marginally severe hail as effective shear averages near 45 kt.

..Jewell.. 08/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 06:06:32 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 310606
SWODY2
SPC AC 310604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of
New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may
also extend westward into Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will prevail over the central MS Valley to the
central Appalachians while a negatively tilted upper trough
amplifies over the Interior West tomorrow (Tuesday). Multiple
mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper ridge, from the
central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, supporting multiple thunderstorm
clusters all along the ridge. Across the Northeast, multiple
pronounced mid-level impulses, preceded by seasonably cooler
mid-level temperatures and stronger westerly flow atop rich
low-level moisture, will promote strong thunderstorm potential, some
of which may be severe. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also
possible along the periphery of the upper ridge from the Midwest to
Great Lakes.

...Parts of the Northeast...
Weak surface troughing will develop across the lower Hudson Valley,
along with the development of a diffuse warm front beneath the
northeast periphery of the upper ridge. Guidance currently suggests
that at least two impulses may support thunderstorm development over
southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. The first and
more subtle impulse will overspread the region during the day,
accompanied by enough upper support to promote sparse thunderstorm
development over the tri-state area. By afternoon, 7 C/km mid-level
lapse rates will overspread 70s F surface dewpoints, resulting in
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast
soundings also show appreciably curved, sizeable low-level
hodographs. As such, a couple of supercells will be possible,
accompanied by a risk of severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.

Later overnight, the approach of a more pronounced mid-level impulse
is expected. As this occurs, thunderstorms should develop around the
Great Lakes and traverse the upper ridge, moving southeast toward
the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Despite nocturnal cooling, the rich
moisture in place will limit stabilization to a degree. Should
stronger storms persist, a few instances of severe wind and hail are
possible, especially over central and southern PA.

...Portions of the Central Plains to Great Lakes...
One mid-level impulse will eject into the central Plains while
another low-amplitude upper trough traverses the Great Lakes through
the period. By evening, a weak surface cyclone will develop over the
central Plains while a diffuse warm front becomes situated over
northeastern NE to central WI. Surface dewpoints may reach up to the
mid 70s F along portions of this warm front, yielding over 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE over several locales given 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading this boundary. A belt of 50+ kt west-southwesterly 500
mb flow may also overlap with the aforementioned mid-level lapse
rates given the approach of the embedded impulse, supporting 40-50
kts of effective bulk shear and modestly curved/elongated
hodographs.

Given the strong overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, any
storm that can mature and become sustained may become multicellular
or supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. At the
moment, storm coverage should be sparse, since upper support with
the Great Lakes mid-level trough should only graze the warm frontal
zone, and the approach of the central Plains impulse should occur
late in the period. Therefore, despite the favorable convective
environment, probabilities have been maintained at Category
1/Marginal Risk.

... Southern TX/LA...
Tropical cyclone formation is possible within the next 48 hours
along the LA coastline (please see the National Hurricane Center
Outlooks for more details). This disturbance will continue to track west-northwestward along the LA/TX coastlines through Tuesday.
Vertical shear profiles accompanying this disturbance are forecast
to be quite weak, precluding tornado probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 17:34:04 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...AND FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of
New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may
also extend westward into Nebraska.

...Much of Southern NY and PA...NJ...Lower Hudson Valley...
Scattered morning thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
region Tuesday morning, as westerly low-level winds maintain a
theta-e plume. This activity is likely to wane throughout the day as
low pressure redevelops over NY. Destabilization will occur
generally near and west of the Hudson River, with MLCAPE averaging
3000 J/kg. This will also occur beneath midlevel northwesterly winds
near 40 kt.

Storms are expected to redevelop along the effective warm front,
perhaps over the lower Hudson Valley, and these would likely move
southeast/to south with hail and localized damaging wind potential.
Other activity may develop over northeast PA/NJ near the surface
low, and, farther upstream near the Lower Great Lakes. Low-level
shear will be greatest near the Hudson Valley and the instability
gradient, and this increased shear could support a brief tornado.

...NE into southern MN & WI...
A lead wave is forecast to move out of CO and across NE, SD, and MN
Tuesday. Midlevel winds are forecast to strengthen into the 40-50 kt
range, though temperatures aloft will not cool much. Meanwhile, a
stalled font will extend roughly from central NE into IA. Strong
heating and boundary layer mixing will occur south of this front,
where dewpoints should hold in the 60s F. The result will be a zone
of moderate instability and shear, conditionally favoring supercells
with large hail and locally damaging gusts.

Storms may develop during near the boundary and farther south near a
surface low over NE as strongly heated air mass develops. Due to
uncertainty in storm coverage, will maintain 5% severe
probabilities.

...Upper TX Coast...
Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 is forecast to move toward the Upper TX
Coast on Tuesday. Wind fields are forecast to remain relatively
concentrated, and not particularly strong. As such, tornado
potential appears low at this time. Subsequent forecasts cycles will
continue to monitor the potential for stronger-than-forecast shear
and possible introduction of 2% tornado probabilities.

..Jewell.. 08/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 06:00:38 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the day Wednesday. Severe
gusts are the main threat, though some hail or a tornado or two
could occur. A few severe gusts are also possible over northern
Montana Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will stall over the TN Valley, with a low-amplitude
mid-level trough poised to traverse the ridge and overspread
portions of the Northeast tomorrow (Wednesday). Meanwhile, an upper
trough will amplify across the Interior West. At the surface, a
trough will become established across the Hudson Valley area,
promoting enough lift for ascent amid a moist and unstable low-level
airmass, supporting strong to severe thunderstorm development.
Likewise, deep-layer forcing for ascent and colder temperatures
aloft will accompany a pronounced mid-level impulse rotating around
the Interior West upper trough, promoting isolated severe potential
across portions of northern MT.

...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic...
A complex severe weather setup will exist across the eastern Great
Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic through the entire period (12Z Wednesday
morning to 12Z Thursday morning). Guidance consensus continues to
depict a primary mid-level impulse and accompanying 50+ kt 500 mb
jet max overspreading the Hudson Valley during the day. 70+ F
surface dewpoints beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield
2500+ J/kg MLCAPE from eastern Lower Michigan to at least as far
east as central PA by afternoon peak heating. The overspreading
mid-level jet max will also encourage 40-50 kts of effective bulk
shear and modestly curved, elongated hodographs. Such conditions
will foster the potential for supercells and bowing segments
accompanied by a severe gust threat, along with isolated instances
of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

The primary concern with this meteorological setup will be the
timing and placement of thunderstorm clusters, which will ultimately
determine the severity and coverage of convective hazards. CAMs
widely vary in their solutions regarding the outcome of this event,
with some models showing early day bow echo potential and others
holding off on the main round of storms until after dark. Given the
ambient supporting environment, there may be a need for introducing
higher severe probabilities with CIG1. However, this scenario is
highly dependent on the timing of organized storms relative to the
diurnal cycle, a detail better resolved with a full suite of convection-allowing guidance. If storms are poorly timed with the
diurnal cycle (including an overturning of the warm sector during
early afternoon), severe probabilities may even need to be reduced
in places. Given the inherent lack of predictability that often
accompanies subtly forced ridging environments, prudence was
exercised in withholding higher severe probabilities this outlook.

...Portions of northern Montana...
A surface trough will deepen across central and northern MT with the south-southwestward approach of the mid-level impulse embedded
within broader upper troughing. As this occurs, a band of showers
and thunderstorms will develop along an arcing cold front poised to
sweep across the region. Ahead of the storms/front, surface
temperatures will warm into the 80s F, amid dewpoints at or below 40
F, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer extending to the 600-500
mb layer. Furthermore, strong unidirectional (southwesterly) flow
through a deep layer will promote 20-30 kts of effective bulk/speed
shear, with multicells the main storm mode expected. Efficient
evaporative cooling (given the deep and dry boundary layer) will
promote the potential for widely scattered severe gusts with the
stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 17:40:08 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and
a few tornadoes may also occur. Widely scattered severe gusts and
more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the
northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into
night.

...Synopsis...

A belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level winds will spread from the Great Lakes
into the Northeast in tandem with a series of low-amplitude
disturbances. Elsewhere, a negatively tilted shortwave trough and
attending mid-level jet streak will progress through the northern
Rockies Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, the primary
baroclinic zone is expected to extend from low pressure over James
Bay through the Great Lakes and mid MO Valley into the northern High
Plains. A backdoor front/quasi-stationary boundary will reside over
the Mid-Atlantic, the specific location of which will be dictated by
the extent of outflow associated with early-day storms and the
strength of low-level ridging stretching from the Gulf of St.
Lawrence through the Northeast.

...Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic...

As alluded to in the synopsis, thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday from portions of WI and MI into NY and PA within a zone of
forcing for ascent associated with a lead short-wave trough. The
strongest storms will be capable of isolated occurrences of large
hail and/or damaging winds as they spread east-southeast through the
lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. In the wake of
the early-day convection, prevailing west-northwest mid-level flow
will maintain a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
(e.g., 7 C/km) atop boundary layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s, yielding MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000+ J/kg by afternoon from
lower MI into western parts of NY and PA.

Additional thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon from
lower MI through the lower Great Lakes, aided by weak disturbances
aloft and the moderate to strong instability forecast across the
warm sector. The presence of 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will
support organized storm modes including supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail potentially approaching two inches
and damaging wind gusts into Wednesday night. Tornado potential will
be conditional on storm mode; however, the models do indicate
stronger low-level winds and resultant larger SRH developing from
southwest ON into NY and PA Wednesday afternoon into evening, where
the greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist.

...Northern Rockies into northern High Plains...

The presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and forcing for
ascent attendant to the short-wave trough are expected to foster an
increase in thunderstorms over western MT Wednesday afternoon amidst
a kinematic environment featuring around 30 kt of southerly
deep-layer shear. NAM and RAP-based forecast soundings indicate the
presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which will
enhance severe-wind-gust potential, especially as storms merge into
clusters. Given the strength of the short-wave trough and consistent
model signal for scattered storms in a favorable thermodynamic
environment, an upgrade to level-2/Slight Risk was included in this
forecast.

Additional storms appear possible across portions of eastern MT into
western ND Wednesday evening within a zone of warm advection along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Isolated occurrences of
large hail appear to be the primary hazard with those storms.

...Mid MO Valley into IA and southern MN...

Neutral to slight mid-level height rises are forecast across the
region Wednesday afternoon into night with the nebulous forcing for
ascent leading to uncertainty in whether storms will develop near
the surface boundary. As such, no severe weather probabilities will
be included in this forecast, despite a favorable overlap of
moderate to strong instability and sufficient vertical shear.

..Mead.. 09/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 05:54:24 2026

ACUS02 KWNS 020554
SWODY2
SPC AC 020552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, accompanied by severe wind and hail (including a
couple 2 inch diameter stones and 75+ mph gusts), are possible
across portions of the Upper Midwest. At least scattered
severe-wind-producing storms are also possible from the eastern Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain centered over the MS Valley as upper
troughs persist across the Northeast and Interior West tomorrow
(Thursday). Multiple impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures
and stronger flow aloft, will pivot around the eastern periphery of
the upper ridge and overspread a moist boundary layer over the Upper
Midwest and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions. Ample buoyancy and
vertical wind shear over both areas will support at least scattered thunderstorms, several of which may be severe.

...Portions of the Upper MS Valley...
Guidance consensus depicts a subtle impulse cresting the upper ridge
over the northern Plains and impinging on the Upper MS Valley by
afternoon peak heating, serving as the most likely impetus for
convective initiation. Storms will most likely develop somewhere
along the SD/MN border to central MN, preceded by a surface warm
front draped from southern MN, to southern WI and eastern IA.
Surface dewpoints will exceed 70 F along this front, with 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates overspreading this moisture, yielding
3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Coincident with this strong buoyancy will be
50 kts of effective bulk shear, with forecast soundings showing
elongated hodographs.

The current thinking is that initial storms will be supercellular,
accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat (a few stones of
which may exceed 2 inches in diameter). However, if storms merge, a cold-pool-driven MCS may develop, perhaps even taking on bowing
tendencies should it traverse the surface boundary. In this
scenario, a focused severe wind swath could occur, and a couple of
gusts may exceed 75 mph. Given such subtle forcing for ascent
expected, and the dependency on finer mesoscale details for a
higher-end severe threat, only Category 2/Slight Risk probabilities
were introduced for now. If consistency in guidance consensus
continues to show bow echo evolution, higher severe probabilities
may be needed in future outlooks.

...Parts of the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Another in a series of mid-level impulses will traverse the
Mid-Atlantic region during the day. A diffuse differential heating
zone should be in place somewhere near the PA/MD border, which will
likely be the location of convective initiation by late morning or
early afternoon. There is also the possibility that upstream
convective complexes, remnant from Day 1 storms along the
larger-scale warm front, may approach from the OH Valley and track
toward the Eastern Seaboard though the day. Regardless of the
convective scenario, storms should overspread 70+ F surface
dewpoints (which will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Given modest northwesterly flow aloft, any storms that become sustained will be
accompanied by a severe gust threat, though an instance of hail
cannot be ruled out. Higher severe probabilities are not entirely
out of the question once mesoscale details on convective placement,
timing, and evolution become clearer.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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