Forum: Richard Fun House

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 07:32:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 200731
SWODY3
SPC AC 200730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
Northwest on Saturday.

...Upper OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes...
An upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on
Saturday with a 50 kt backside speed max in the midlevels from MN
into IL. While winds aloft will be weaker farther east, cooling
aloft will overspread the entire region. Meanwhile, a cold front
will push across Lower MI, IN and OH during the day, with a plume of
1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing. This will support clusters of storms
with strong to severe gust potential. The cool temperatures aloft
and effective shear to 30 kt may also support marginal hail.

...Parts of eastern WA...ID...western MT...
A shortwave trough will move across the Northwest on Saturday, with
a 50-60 kt midlevel speed max moving across the region along with
cooling aloft. This trough will steepen midlevel lapse rates,
resulting in an unstable air mass as daytime heating occurs. Storms
are likely to form near the surface trough, and spread across
northern ID and into western MT through the evening and overnight.
The strengthening wind fields combined with favorable lapse rates
will support cells with marginal hail, as well as corridors of
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 19:17:10 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 201917
SWODY3
SPC AC 201915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
Northwest on Saturday.

...Midwest...

An upper trough will dig and pivot southeast across the region on
Saturday. At the surface, a front will extend from Lower MI to
southern IL at the start of the period, with the boundary tracking east/southeast across the Ohio Valley through early Sunday. Ahead of
the boundary, 60s F surface dewpoints beneath cooler midlevel
temperatures will support moderate destabilization by afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface boundary and spread southeast through evening. This activity
will pose a risk for marginal hail and strong wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies on Saturday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly
flow and cooling aloft over much of the region. Steepening midlevel
lapse rates will support weak destabilization, and isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected. A deeply mixed boundary
layer beneath strengthening flow aloft will support strong outflow
winds with this activity. Small hail could also occur with stronger
cells.

...Lower MO Valley to AR/Mid-South...

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
Saturday. A surface front will drop southward across MO/IL into the
Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity. Ahead of the front, a seasonally
moist airmass will be in place, and moderate to strong instability
is forecast. Some forecast guidance suggests a remnant MCV or
outflow from prior convection could focus thunderstorm develop along
the sagging surface front. Where the greatest coverage of
thunderstorms occurs remains highly uncertain. If confidence
increases in subsequent outlooks, wind probabilities could be needed
for portions of the region.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 07:33:16 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 210733
SWODY3
SPC AC 210731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts
are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of
southwest and central Montana.

...Southwest into central Montana...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
and into eastern British Columbia. While the parent trough is
forecast to deamplify through the period, moderate mid-level flow is
forecast to remain across much of Montana. Weak to potentially
moderate instability is forecast to develop across southwest into
central Montana. The moderate mid-level flow should provide ample
shear for storm organization including some supercell potential.
Strong heating will support steep low-level lapse rates and some
severe wind gust threat with the strongest storms.

...Portions of the Northeast...
A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. A broad 1006-1010mb
surface low is forecast somewhere in the vicinity of western New
York, southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. Storms are forecast by
mid-day along a cold front that should extend from New York into
central Pennsylvania on Sunday morning and move eastward through the
day. The environment ahead of this front is forecast to have
moderate to strong shear and relatively weak instability. Forecast
soundings show a lower storm top environment due to warmer
temperatures aloft. However, despite the weak instability, the
expectation for at least some supercell threat, combined with decent instability within the hail growth zone and strong shear may support
some large hail and damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 19:29:48 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 211929
SWODY3
SPC AC 211928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
and Great Plains, and across parts of the Northeast, Sunday through
Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that prominent mid/upper ridging centered across the
southern Rockies through southern Great Plains will be maintained
through this period. However, initially amplified ridging extending
through the westerlies to the north of this feature is likely to
become suppressed by a notable mid-level short wave trough, slowly
progressing east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies
through the southern Canadian Prairies and adjacent international
border vicinity.

Downstream, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to only make
very slow eastward progress east of the Mississippi Valley through
Atlantic Seaboard/western Atlantic vicinity, while an evolving
embedded low slowly shifts eastward near/north of the lower Great
Lakes region, in response to at least a couple of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around it.

In lower-levels, the primary surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
northward toward James Bay, with a weaker secondary low perhaps
migrating inland across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern
New England, before weakening further. It appears that the
composite leading edge of cooler low-level air trailing this
feature, will stall and weaken across parts of the southern Great
Plains and Gulf Coast into southern Mid Atlantic.

...Central and eastern Montana...
There remains a signal in latest model output that forcing for
ascent within the base of the progressive short wave trough will
support increasing thunderstorm development across the higher
terrain of central Montana by late afternoon. Coincident with
strengthening westerly mid-level flow to 30-40+ kt, and the
evolution of a strongly heated and fairy deeply mixed downstream
boundary-layer (with at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg),
there appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing and
organizing cluster into early evening. If this occurs, the
environment appears conducive to an accompanying swath of strong to
severe gusts across parts of central into eastern Montana by late
Sunday evening.

...Dakotas...
Forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection downstream of
the progressive short wave trough may become increasingly conducive
to upscale growing thunderstorm development from the west/central
Dakotas state border through central/eastern South Dakota Sunday
evening into Sunday night. Aided by inflow of seasonably moist
boundary-layer air supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg,
there appears potential for activity to become organized with
potential to produce a swath or two of strong to severe gusts. The
21/12Z NAM, in particular, generates a fairly notable convective
perturbation in association with this development. If this signal
becomes supported by more model output in later runs, severe
probabilities may need to be upgraded further.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
Forcing for ascent aided by an initial short wave impulse pivoting
around the southeastern through eastern periphery of the Great Lakes
mid-level low probably will provide support for increasing
thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New York and
Pennsylvania into southern New England during the day Sunday.
Inland destabilization and vertical shear across this region remains
a bit uncertain, but it possible the environment could become
supportive of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail
and wind.

..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 06:53:08 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 220652
SWODY3
SPC AC 220651

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.

...Central to the Northern Plains...
The strong ridge which has been present for much of the last 3 weeks
will continue across the southern Plains and the High Plains.
However, the northern extent of this ridge will be flattened with a
frontal zone extending from the northern Plains into the central
High Plains. Moderate instability is forecast along this frontal
zone where isolated to scattered storms are expected on Monday. The
strongest shear is expected across North Dakota into Minnesota where
a 40 knot jet streak will overspread the region. Isolated storms may
form along the front in this region during the day, but the better
signal for storms is during the evening when a mid-level shortwave
trough approaches the region from southern Canada.

The greater diurnal storm coverage is anticipated in the Nebraska
Panhandle and into southwest South Dakota. However, the weaker shear
across this region may result in only marginally organized storms.
Therefore, a few severe wind gusts are possible and thus the
Marginal is warranted, but the relatively unorganized storm mode
precludes higher severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 19:29:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 221928
SWODY3
SPC AC 221927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...AND MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible
across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern
Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may
also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
CONUS while an upper trough begins to eject into the Atlantic from
New England on Monday. The embedded impulse responsible for cresting
the ridge over the northern Rockies and encouraging severe storm
development on Day 2 (Sunday) will overspread the northern High
Plains on Monday. Weak lee troughing over the Plains will encourage
modest low-level moisture advection beneath stronger westerly flow
aloft, resulting in enough deep-layer ascent, amid coinciding
buoyancy and vertical wind shear, to support isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms.

...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
Upslope flow of 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates along the central and northern High Plains will yield
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE as a mid-level impulse begins to overspread
the region. Over 30 kts of 500 mb flow and resultant deep-layer
shear will coincide with this buoyancy, supporting the development
of multicells and perhaps supercells by late Monday afternoon.
Should more sustained supercells develop, an instance or two of 2+
inch diameter hail or a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out given the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Slight risk probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks pending higher confidence in greater
storm coverage.

...Parts of the northern Great Basin to central Rockies...
A deep and dry boundary layer should develop by afternoon peak
heating, resulting in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles from the
northern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Stronger westerly
mid-level flow will overspread this dry and unstable boundary layer,
promoting elongated hodographs and the tendency for storms to
organize into multicells. Given the organized storm mode and
evaporative cooling potential with the dry boundary layer in place,
a few severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms.

...Maine...
Deep-layer ascent ahead of the ejecting upper trough will support
scattered thunderstorm development during the late morning into the
afternoon hours. A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will
pivot around the upper trough and overspread Main during the
afternoon, when buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750
J/kg with over 50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear given highly
elongated hodographs. Therefore, any storms that develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in nature, posting an
isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the afternoon.

...Parts of the Gulf Coast...
Another hot and humid day is expected along the Gulf Coast, where
strong surface heating amid mid 70s F dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
over 2000 J/kg. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough
moisture-fueled buoyancy will support the potential for wet
downbursts capable of damaging gusts during the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 07:29:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 230729
SWODY3
SPC AC 230728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of
the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across
portions of the central High Plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the
Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface low,
and associated cold front, will move relatively quickly
southeastward through the day. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast ahead
of this front which will result in moderate instability. Moderate
flow associated with the mid-level jet streak will provide ample
shear for storm organization. Storms will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period near the Canadian border which may result in
a somewhat messy storm mode through the day. However, farther south,
more isolated storm development is possible. Given storm motion
normal to the front and moderate mid-level flow, supercells will be
possible. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and warmer
temperatures aloft may limit the large hail threat somewhat.

...Central Plains...
A reservoir of strong instability is forecast across the central
Plains where low 70s dewpoints are expected on Tuesday
afternoon/evening. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (perhaps
enhanced by Day 2 convection) is consistently shown among guidance
which should move across this region during the afternoon/evening.
The combination of a strongly unstable warm sector and forcing from
this mid-level shortwave trough should result in scattered to
widespread storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Effective
shear around 30 to 35 knots should result in a combination of
multicells and supercells initially with one or more clusters
developing by evening as storms grow upscale. The most favorable
region for a greater coverage of severe wind gusts will likely exist
across northwest Kansas and vicinity where diurnal timing is favored
and storm mode transition is expected.

...Southeast...
Strong heating is expected along the Gulf Coast south of a frontal
zone. Shear will be very weak, but PWAT in excess of 2 inches and
the hot air mass should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of
isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening
hours. A slightly greater coverage of storms and severe potential
may exist across MS/AL downstream of early morning elevated
convection forecast to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 19:32:30 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 231932
SWODY3
SPC AC 231930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms are likely across portions
of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may
also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A synoptic scale mid-level anticyclone will overspread most of the
western and central CONUS on Tuesday, with multiple mid-level
impulses poised to pivot around the anticyclone across the Plains
states into the Upper- and Mid-MS Valleys. The most pronounced
impulse, in the form of a mid-level shortwave trough, will traverse
the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, supporting a surface trough
with a cold front draping southwestward across the Plains. Along and
ahead of the cold front, enough deep-layer shear and ascent, in
tandem with adequate buoyancy, will support at least scattered
severe storms across the southern and central High Plains into the
Upper MS Valley.

...Central and southern High Plains...
As a mid-level impulse crests the ridge and tracks southeastward
across the northern Plains, a cold front will drift
south-southeastward across NE. Meanwhile, upslope moist low-level
flow will encourage both increased instability and convergence along
the immediate lee of the Rockies over NM and CO. 8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates will overspread 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding
2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the strongest buoyancy expected
immediately ahead of the cold front over northeast CO into NE. Here,
the greatest severe threat exists since 40 kts of effective bulks
shear will also coincide with the aforementioned buoyancy, with
severe wind- and hail-producing multicells and supercells expected.
There is some indication for the potential of cold-pool mergers and
subsequent development of an MCS. If this occurs, a severe wind
swath would manifest across the central High Plains. Farther south
into the southern High Plains, a deep and dry boundary layer will
compensate for weaker vertical wind shear to support a severe gust
threat in association with dry downbursts, driven by evaporative
cooling.

...Upper MS Valley...
A narrow tongue of at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect
ahead of a surface trough/cold front Tuesday afternoon. Though
mid-level lapse rates may be modest, the rich low-level moisture
will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, southwesterly
surface winds beneath stronger northwesterly flow aloft support
modestly elongated and curved hodographs, with supercells possible.
All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including an
instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. An upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in future
outlooks if consensus and consistency among guidance members
indicates relatively greater storm coverage.

...Portions of the Gulf Coast...
Another day of deep-layer north-northwesterly flow, atop a very
moist boundary layer (i.e. 70s F surface dewpoints), will encourage multicellular development amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The stronger
storm cores may support wet downdrafts, the strongest of which may
produce isolated wind damage.

..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 07:30:46 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 240730
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central
High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the
Midwest into the Great Lakes.

...Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A mid-level shortwave trough will advance through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A surface cold front will move southeastward through the
period with thunderstorms developing along it by mid-afternoon.
Upper 60 to low 70s dewpoints will result in moderate instability.
Multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells will be possible
along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and into the
evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat. However, some low-level wind shear could result in a
localized tornado threat with any supercells which develop.

...Central High Plains...
A weakening of the mid-level ridge will support scattered storm
development within a weak upslope flow regime across eastern
Colorado on Wednesday. These storms will form on the southwestern
periphery of the stronger mid-level flow traversing the northeastern
portion of the upper-level ridge. This may result in sufficient
shear for a few south-southeasterly moving supercells capable of
large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A weak surface low will drift slowly southeastward along a frontal
boundary into the ArkLaTex on Wednesday. Strong heating is expected
with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This deeply-mixed
and uncapped airmass will support scattered thunderstorm development
by mid-afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft is relatively weak (~20
knots). This will likely result in mostly unorganized storms with a
few multicell clusters. Despite the relatively weak shear, the
strong heating will support some damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 19:31:54 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 241931
SWODY3
SPC AC 241930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe
gusts are the main threat across these regions.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will stagnate over the western and central CONUS
through Wednesday, with an upper trough expected to progress over
eastern Canada, resulting in a broad northwesterly upper-air regime
with surface troughing over the MS Valley and Midwest. Seasonably
rich low-level moisture will overspread portions of the High Plains,
as well as the Great Lakes and portions of the Lower MS Valley,
aiding in the development of scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Another day of moist upslope low-level flow is expected across
portions of the central and southern High Plains, where orographic
lift will support convective initiation by mid afternoon. 60s F
surface dewpoints will advect northwestward beneath mid-level lapse
rates of at least 8 C/km, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer
shear should remain rather modest, but given modestly elongated
hodographs, over 30 kts of effective bulk shear is likely in spots,
which will support at least transient supercells. Isolated instances
of severe wind and hail are the primary threats. If greater storm
coverage and/or shear becomes apparent, a Slight Risk upgrade may be
needed in future outlooks.

...Great Lakes into the OH Valley...
A wedge of 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeast ahead
of the approaching surface trough, beneath 6-6.5 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorm
initiation should take place along/ahead of the surface trough as
surface temperatures rise into the mid 70s F by afternoon. Modest
veering and strengthening of the flow with height will encourage
over 35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by hodographs
with some curvature and elongation. Multicells, line segments, and
supercells are the expected storm mode, with severe wind/hail the
primary concerns. At the moment, expected limited storm coverage
precludes Slight risk probabilities.

...Lower MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is expected Wednesday afternoon with the
heating of a very moist boundary layer, characterized by mid 70s F
surface dewpoints. Some organization into multicellular complexes is
possible given modest vertical speed shear as the region is grazed
by the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow. MLCAPE will
likely reach 2000-3000 J/kg supporting wet downbursts with damaging
gust potential.

..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 07:31:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
Slight Risk at this time.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
at this time.

...Lower MS Valley...
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley/Afwa.. 08/25/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 07:35:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 250735
SWODY3
SPC AC 250734

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
Slight Risk at this time.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
at this time.

...Lower MS Valley...
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/25/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 19:14:16 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 251914
SWODY3
SPC AC 251913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms.

...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...

Modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region to
the east of the upper trough axis oriented from the Great Lakes to
TN Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front will develop
east/southeast across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through
the period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface boundary
will maintain 60s F dewpoints, supporting weak to moderate
destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley toward the Hudson Valley
(decreasing across New England). Scattered thunderstorm development
is expected during the afternoon and continuing through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest supercells will be possible, with an
accompanying risk of damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or
two where backed low-level winds persist.

Scattered thunderstorm clusters are expected with southwest extent
into southern OH/eastern KY/WV/VA as several shortwave impulses/MCVs
migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern to central
Appalachians. Vertical shear will be weaker further south, but a
moist and unstable airmass could support strong wet microbursts.

...Central High Plains...

The amplified upper ridge will develop eastward toward the High
Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture will be more limited across
eastern CO/NM and vicinity. However, southeasterly low-level flow
near a surface boundary will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across portions of NE toward the Black Hills in SD.
Isolated storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills and
within the low-level warm advection regime with southeast extent
into NE. Supercell wind profiles suggest strong outflow winds and
large hail (some possibly 2+ inch diameter) will be possible. Storm
coverage with southward extent is uncertain, but will maintain the
Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for now given a conditionally
supportive environment.

..Leitman.. 08/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 07:21:20 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 260721
SWODY3
SPC AC 260720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern Plains.

...Central Plains...
The upper-level ridge across the Plains will start to deamplify on
Friday. Simultaneously, a lee trough will develop across the
northern Plains and into the central High Plains. Strengthening
low-level flow will lead to a moistening/destabilizing airmass east
of the lee trough. In addition, the low-level jet will strengthen to
near 40 knots across the Plains. Increasing isentropic ascent
associated with this strengthening low-level jet will be the primary
forcing mechanism for storms across the region. 00Z guidance focuses
this low-level jet east of the primary instability which creates
considerable uncertainty for storm coverage and intensity. Given the environment for severe weather across the region, have highlighted
the most favorable area with a 5% severe weather probability.

...North Georgia into the Carolinas...
A very moist airmass will be present across the Carolinas on Friday
with dewpoints in the 70s. Around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow
may result in occasional storm organization, but weak lapse rates
may limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, numerous storms in a very
moist, moderate to strongly unstable environment will support some
damaging wind potential. Therefore, a Marginal Risk has been added
for this threat.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 19:08:38 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 261908
SWODY3
SPC AC 261907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM NORTH GA INTO SOUTHEAST
VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern/central Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains...

An upper ridge, centered from the southern Rockies to the western
Dakotas will persist on Friday. Some enhancement to
west/northwesterly flow aloft is forecast, and a surface trough will
develop across the northern and central High Plains. Southerly
low-level flow to the east of the surface trough will transport 60s
F dewpoints northward from the central into the northern Plains. As
a low-level jet strengthens during the evening, thunderstorm
development is possible. Capping may limit surface-based convection.
However, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid
moderate instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. If storms
develop, large hail will be possible.

...North GA into southeast VA...

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Friday.
Surface high pressure will build over the Midwest while a surface
trough extends from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the southern
Appalachians. East of the trough, a very moist airmass will be in
place. Daytime heating of this very moist/high PW airmass will
support moderate destabilization, and thunderstorm clusters are
expected to develop over higher terrain. Vertical shear will be
weak, limiting organized convection. Nevertheless, wet microbursts
could produce sporadic strong/locally damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 07:30:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 270729
SWODY3
SPC AC 270728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the
northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.

...Northern Great Basin Vicinity...
A broad range of 00Z guidance (GFS/RRFS/NAM) shows moderate
instability developing across northern Utah on Saturday amid strong
surface heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass by
mid-afternoon when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to
begin. 45 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support storm organization/longevity and some damaging wind threat (some 75+ mph).
The ECMWF is the least unstable, with more cloud-cover across the
region, which may limit the severe weather threat somewhat.
Nonetheless, even this ECMWF solution would likely support some
severe wind threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk seems warranted, and
if all guidance trends toward the more unstable solution, an upgrade
to Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks.

...Northern Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Northern
Plains on Saturday within a moist region to the north of a surface
low. Forcing will be relatively weak, but subtle height falls and
perhaps a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the
southwesterly flow, may be sufficient for isolated to widely
scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
long hodographs across the region which would support a supercell
storm mode. A Marginal Risk has been added for this threat, but the
lack of stronger forcing precludes higher probabilities at this
time.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 19:19:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 271918
SWODY3
SPC AC 271917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the
northern Great Basin to the northern Plains.

...Great Basin to Northern Plains...

A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region
ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving east across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies. Modest boundary layer moisture will
be in place with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to
upper 50s, though 60s are possible across portions of the Dakotas.
This will support modest destabilization from the Great Basin into
the Dakotas. Widely scattered storms are expected to develop across
the Great Basin and spread east/northeast through evening. Steep
low-level lapse rates and stronger flow atop a well mixed boundary
layer will support occasional strong to severe gusts.

Sufficient clustering may occur, supporting some upscale development
as storms move over eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas during
the evening. It is possible this activity will encounter a more
moist and unstable airmass, promoting greater severe potential.
However, the evolution of a surface low and associated frontal
boundary across the Dakotas is uncertain, precluding higher severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 07:22:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 280721
SWODY3
SPC AC 280721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind
and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will gradually drift eastward from the central CONUS
to the OH/TN Valley areas on Sunday, with two mid-level shortwave
troughs poised to crest the upper ridge and overspread the Northeast
and northern Plains, respectively. A surface low will develop across
the northern Plains, preceded by a warm front that extends from the
Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley as a cold front sags
south-southeastward across the central Plains. Along the warm front
and ahead of the cold front, seasonable low-level moisture will be
overspread by modestly cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft
to support some threat for strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms.

...Portions of the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley...
One or more rounds of thunderstorms are expected to overspread the
Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the day and early overnight
hours on Sunday. Forecast soundings show 7+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates overspreading 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE on a widespread basis, particularly along the warm front,
where sizeable curved/elongated hodographs also exist. The current
thinking is that a mix of multicells and supercells are possible,
with one or more clusters potentially growing upscale into an MCS.
Severe wind and hail will be the main threats with
multicell/supercell structures, with perhaps some risk of a wind
swath should an MCS materialize.

...Portions of the central Plains...
Convective initiation along the cold front is quite conditional
across NE and surrounding areas given appreciable MLCINH expected.
Nonetheless, steep lapse rates potentially exceeding 8 C/km amid
elongated hodographs suggest supercells structures could develop if
MLCINH erodes sufficiently, or if isentropic lift in the early
evening at the terminus of a strengthening low-level jet can support
elevated convection.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 19:18:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 281918
SWODY3
SPC AC 281916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind
and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level low across the Pacific Northwest will lift northward
into Canada on D3/Sunday as the ridge across the central US shifts
gradually eastward. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate through
the northern periphery of the ridge across northern Rockies into the
northern Plains, with strengthening mid-level flow overspreading the
northern Plains. A surface low will develop across the northern
Plains, preceded by a warm front that extends from the Dakotas into
the Upper MS Valley as a cold front sags south-southeastward across
the central Plains.

...Portions of the Northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the morning
and evening of D3/Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period across the Dakotas into central Minnesota near
the warm front within the warm advection regime, with some potential
for damaging wind and transient supercell structures given strong
shear profiles. A mix of multicells and supercells may redevelop by
the afternoon/early evening from eastern Montana into the
western/central Dakotas, with one or more clusters potentially
growing upscale into an MCS. Severe wind and hail will be the main
threats with multicell/supercell structures, with perhaps some risk
of a wind swath should an MCS materialize.

...Portions of the Central Plains...
Further south across the central Plains, more substantial capping
leads to a more conditional threat. The strengthening low-level jet
in the evening may aid in overcoming MLCIN and development of
elevated convection. Supercell wind profiles will be in place with
steep lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Should storms
be able to initiate, they will pose a wind and hail risk into the
late evening.

..Thornton.. 08/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 07:24:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 290724
SWODY3
SPC AC 290722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A 500 mb anticyclone will become established over the central Plains
to the Mid-MS Valley on Monday, with a low-amplitude mid-level
shortwave trough poised to crest the ridge and impinge on the Upper
MS Valley. A surface trough will become established across the Upper
MS Valley/Midwest during the afternoon, promoting enough deep-layer
ascent for isolated thunderstorm development when also considering
the approach of the upper trough. Additionally, stronger mid-level
flow, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will overspread a
moist boundary layer, supporting scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms over portions of the Upper MS Valley.

...Portions of the Upper MS Valley...
The aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level trough will impinge on
the Upper MS Valley and support surface lee troughing by afternoon.
A diffuse warm front may also materialize roughly along the MN/IA
border into central WI. An appreciable EML will extend from the
central Rockies to the western Great Lakes, with up to 8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates possible. These lapse rates will overspread
mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread
basis, especially near the warm front. Given the possibility of an
increasing low-level jet beneath 30-50 kt 500 mb flow, elongated
hodographs with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear are possible. Such
conditions would favor supercellular development, with at least
severe wind and hail possible. However, storm coverage remains in
question since the strongest deep-layer ascent accompanying the
low-amplitude upper trough will only graze the warm frontal zone to
the north. Higher severe probabilities may be needed pending greater
confidence in higher storm coverage.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 19:35:50 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 291935
SWODY3
SPC AC 291934

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible Monday afternoon from the central High Plains toward parts
of the Corn Belt.

...Discussion...
On Monday, a shortwave trough will lift northeastward out of the
Northern Plains, with an upper high over the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valleys. To the west, an upper low will drop southward off the West
Coast, with increasing southwest flow aloft from CA into the Great
Basin late. A leading wave is also forecast to develop over the
central Rockies, moving from CO into NE overnight.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary will extend from NE/SD
into southern MN/WI, where 60s to 70s F dewpoints will exist.
Conditionally, this region could support a severe risk. However, the
departing upper wave combined veering and weakening low-level winds
suggest minimal storm coverage for most of the period. Some forecast
soundings also indicate shallow boundary layer moisture. However,
isolated storms cannot be ruled out both during the day and
overnight within this moist zone, therefore will maintain low severe probabilities.

Scattered strong to severe storms may also occur over the Central
High Plains, where a lee trough will develop and where a developing
midlevel wave is forecast. Strong heating as well as 50s to near 60
F dewpoints will support scattered late afternoon storms from
eastern CO/southeast WY, spreading northeast into NE. A few severe
gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

..Jewell.. 08/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 07:24:52 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least a few storms capable of producing severe wind/hail and
perhaps a tornado are all possible across portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will become centered over the TN Valley on Tuesday as
a mid-level trough becomes situated over the Interior West, and
multiple embedded impulses overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast
regions. Rich low-level moisture will become established along the
periphery of the upper ridge, overspread by cooler temperatures and
stronger flow aloft with the passage of the aforementioned impulses.
Strong to severe thunderstorms may result, especially over portions
of the Northeast.

...Portions of the Northeast...
Deterministic guidance members are beginning to demonstrate a
consensus in depicting an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting from
the Great Lakes and impinging on the lower Hudson Valley while
pivoting around the upper ridge. While mid-level lapse rates
accompanying this perturbation may not be particularly steep, (e.g.
between 6.5-7 C/km), rich low-level moisture (e.g. low to mid 70s F
dewpoints) will be present. Furthermore, forecast soundings depict
appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, suggesting some storms
may obtain supercell structures. A severe wind and hail threat may
accompany the stronger storms and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
There is the potential for earlier day clouds and precipitation,
which may yield a differential heating zone. Should this occur,
severe potential may be confined to this baroclinic boundary. Since
the specifics on the placement of such a boundary are too difficult
to pinpoint this far in advance, a Category 2/Slight Risk has been
introduced with the understanding that these probabilities may be
modified in future outlooks.

...Parts of the Midwest...
Deep-layer ascent will be limited farther west across the Midwest as
a series of embedded impulses glance the region to the north.
Nonetheless, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread 70+ F
surface dewpoints from IA to lower MI Tuesday afternoon, yielding
over 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Appreciable sized hodographs will also
coincide with this buoyancy as the eastern part of a strengthening
low-level jet impinges on the Midwest. Given the limited ascent,
storm coverage is highly uncertain and may end up being quite sparse
at best. Nonetheless, Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced
given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic space within a close
distance of the low-amplitude upper trough.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 19:35:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 301935
SWODY3
SPC AC 301934

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of
New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may
also extend westward into Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A zone of moderate instability is forecast to stretch from the Upper
Midwest eastward into parts of NY, PA and NJ on Tuesday. This will
also be along a weak surface trough, where various areas of rain and thunderstorms will exist throughout the period. Anticyclonic flow
aloft around the northern periphery of an upper ridge will yield
30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies, and minor cooling aloft may occur
as embedded disturbances move across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
The greatest concentration of thunderstorms will be from NY into PA,
both during the day and overnight. Early day storms will be possible
from southern New England into NY, where elevated instability will
exist. Destabilization will then occur south of this zone and
possible outflows, with additional activity possible. Forcing for
ascent should remain relatively weak, but sufficient convergence
near any boundaries or an afternoon surface trough may support
redevelopment. Elongated mid to upper level hodographs suggest
cellular storm mode is possible, with hail and locally damaging
gusts most likely. Overnight, additional activity is forecast as
height falls occur upstream, and westerly winds at 850 mb maintain
theta-e. Several models suggest storms moving out of Ontario
overnight, with wind potential.

...Nebraska into northwest Iowa and vicinity...
Moderate southwest winds aloft will persist over this area, as
daytime heating yield moderate instability. Some of this area may be
affected by early day rain/storms, with boundary reinforcement.
Strong heating and a developing southerly low-level jet should
support new development, perhaps a supercell or two producing hail.
Storm coverage may then increase during the evening and spread
northeastward.

..Jewell.. 08/30/2026

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 07:18:00 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 310717
SWODY3
SPC AC 310716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across portions of the eastern Great
Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Severe wind and hail are the
main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS as
an upper trough progresses across the Intermountain West on
Wednesday. A pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Great
Lakes and overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
afternoon. Seasonably cold temperatures aloft and strong
northwesterly flow will accompany this impulse while it passes over
a moist and unstable boundary layer, promoting the potential for
severe storms.

...Northwest PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Scattered thunderstorms (perhaps strong) will be ongoing across PA
and points southeast at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday).
Through the early afternoon hours, showers and thunderstorms will
give way to at least modest insolation, resulting in boundary layer destabilization. Surface heating of a moist boundary layer (e.g. low
70s F surface dewpoints) will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE given
mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. The aforementioned
mid-level impulse overspreading eastern Lower Michigan to the
Delmarva will result in strong northwesterly flow aloft and 35-45
kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, forecast soundings also
depict appreciably large and curved hodographs, with over 200 m2/s2
0-3 km SRH. Supercells and bowing segments will be the most likely
storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats, though a
couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...Portions of the eastern Great Lakes...
A secondary mid-level impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes
by Wednesday afternoon, which may support an additional round of
storms. These storms will be preceded by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates, which will overspread 70 F surface dewpoints and yield 2000+
J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and
supercells may occur, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 19:35:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 311934
SWODY3
SPC AC 311933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with wind and hail risk are expected from the Lower
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A few severe storms
may also occur over parts of Montana.

...Lower Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic...
An upper ridge will hold over the TN Valley to Appalachians, while
an upper low drifts east into Quebec. In between, moderate
westerlies aloft will exist, supporting favorable deep-layer shear
and areas of storm organization.

At the surface, a weak surface trough should extend roughly from
Lower MI into NY, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints to the
south. The westerly low-level winds will support air mass recovery
behind any early/dying morning activity, with afternoon
redevelopment expected from Lower MI into NY. Corridors of damaging
winds are most likely as storms move rapidly southeastward.
Deep-layer shear may also favor large hail with the more cellular
activity. Low-level shear may favor a few supercells across eastern NY/PA/NJ/DelMarVa, and therefore a brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out assuming storm mode remains discrete as they move east
into the better shear environment.

...Western to northern MT...
A potent shortwave trough is forecast to move out of the Great Basin
and across ID and MT Wednesday, with substantial cooling aloft. Low
pressure is forecast to develop into west-central MT, with a
prominent cold front moving across the entire state into Thursday
morning.

Strong surface heating ahead of the front combined with cooling
aloft will result in steep lapse rates through a deep layer, aiding destabilization despite limited moisture. Storms that develop near
the front during the afternoon are thus likely to produce strong to
locally severe gusts. Marginally severe hail may also occur. Farther
east, increasing southeast low-level winds will bring a plume of
instability into eastern MT as well, which may support cells capable
of hail through the evening.

...NE...SD...MN...IA...
Predictability is low, but isolated strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, as winds
increase out of the south ahead of the northern Rockies wave. Areas
of moderate instability will remain over the region with
southeasterly surface winds and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. Peak
heating will lead to an uncapped air mass across central SD and NE,
with lift increasing into the evening as a low-level jet develops.
Models are in disagreement with the most likely area for
development, but severe probabilities may be added later from NE
into MN.

..Jewell.. 08/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 07:22:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 010721
SWODY3
SPC AC 010720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging
gusts and perhaps some hail, appear likely across portions of the
Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the Mid-MS Valley and points east,
with multiple mid-level perturbations expected to crest the upper
ridge from the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through the day
Thursday. Currently, the best chance for severe storms will be with
the primary impulse over the Mid-Atlantic, as stronger flow aloft
overspreads a moist boundary layer. A couple of severe thunderstorms
also cannot be ruled out farther northwest across the Upper MS
Valley, where rich low-level moisture will be coincident with a
diffuse warm frontal boundary.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a modest
mid-level impulse will overspread the Mid-Atlantic, contributing to
some forcing for ascent and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Despite only 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates, surface dewpoints
exceeding 70 F will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the eastern OH
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline on a widespread basis. While
upper support may be weaker compared to the previous day, multiple
days of preceding storms should leave behind a lingering baroclinic
boundary somewhere around the Mid-Atlantic, which may act as a
forcing mechanism for convective initiation. Given the
aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, supercells and bowing
segments may occur, capable of producing mainly a severe gust
threat, though a couple instances of severe hail may occur.

Some guidance suggests that the best buoyancy/shear parameter space
for severe may situate over eastern PA into NJ. However, it is
unclear how previous day's storms will impact the boundary layer
over this region by Day 3/Thursday, so Slight Risk probabilities
were introduced conservatively, with some latitude given to the
northern extent of the Marginal Risk probabilities. If the more
aggressive guidance holds true and convective overturning does not
dominate this region, higher severe probabilities may be needed in
future outlooks.

...Portions of the Upper MS Valley to the Midwest...
Convective initiation is more uncertain across portions of the
Midwest to the Upper MS Valley, where a northwestward arching warm
front will be located. Here, surface dewpoints should reach the mid
70s F beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg
MLCAPE. While several calibrated ML/AI guidance members depict
higher severe probabilities across this region, only Marginal risk probabilities have been introduced since the mid-level impulses
poised to track along this boundary are quite small and subtle,
rendering storm coverage highly questionable. Nonetheless, if a
storm can mature and become sustained, 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear with the strong instability may support a supercell or two
capable of mainly severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 19:31:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 011931
SWODY3
SPC AC 011930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging
gusts and perhaps some large hail, appear likely across portions of
the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. More isolated
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible over the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the
upper Midwest Thursday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

Broader-scale troughing is forecast over the western CONUS with
low-amplitude ridging from the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes
into the Southeast. Between the ridge and an upper low over QC,
latest model guidance indicates the progression of a short-wave
trough and associated 40-50 kt jet streak from the lower Great Lakes
through the Mid-Atlantic and portions of New England. Other more
subtle disturbances are depicted within the periphery of the ridge
over the Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast over the Dakotas
on Thursday with an associated warm front slowly lifting north
through the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. The boundary is
expected to stretch east through the Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic with the specific location of the boundary dictated by
the extent of thunderstorm activity and associated convective
outflow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

One or multiple thunderstorm complexes may be ongoing Thursday
morning from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, aided by forcing
for ascent attendant to the previously mentioned mid-level
disturbances. The presence of the early-day storms leads to
uncertainty in the extent of air mass overturning that occurs, and
where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. As such,
the Marginal Risk probability envelope has been broadened slightly
over the Mid-Atlantic with the Slight Risk probabilities remaining
unchanged.

The overlap of 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear with a moist and
potentially moderately to strongly unstable warm sector will
conditionally support supercell and bowing storm modes with an
attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail from Thursday
afternoon into evening.

...North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest...

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates/EML is forecast to overly a
moist boundary layer, yielding a moderately to strongly unstable air
mass by afternoon in the vicinity of the warm front. The instability
will coincide with up to 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, conditionally
yielding a very favorable severe storm environment. However, capping
concerns and the timing of any weak disturbances cresting the ridge
axis limit predictability, with only an areal increase in the
Marginal Risk probabilities included in this forecast. A categorical
upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary in subsequent
forecasts.

..Mead.. 09/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 07:29:24 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are
expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over
parts of the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will continue over the central and eastern U.S., with
upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and the Northeast. A
broad warm frontal boundary will be draped from parts of the Midwest
to the Atlantic coastline, overspread by deep-layer northwesterly
flow. Multiple embedded impulses will traverse this northwest flow
regime, promoting the development of thunderstorm clusters in the
process.

...Southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
The best chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be across
portions of southern WV to the NC shoreline on Friday. By afternoon, boundary-layer destabilization along a differential heating zone,
left behind by storms in preceding days, will promote renewed
thunderstorm development. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, 70+
F surface dewpoints and warm temperatures exceeding 90 F will yield
widespread 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given stronger northwesterly flow
aloft, 30+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear will support
multicells and supercells capable of damaging gusts.

...Portions of the Midwest and OH Valley...
Rich low-level moisture along the warm front (i.e. 70s F dewpoints),
beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. While upper support will
be quite subtle at best, strong heating and minimal capping may
support isolated thunderstorm development along the front. Only
Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced given the expected
sparse and brief nature of the severe threat. However, any storms
that mature and become sustained will be capable of producing severe
wind or hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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