ABNT20 KNHC 201130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 211119
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the
Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity of tropical or subtropical development should
end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 221138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the
northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of
Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today or on Sunday while it moves
east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development
should end Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable
environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing
disorganized shower activity. Development of this system,
if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward
through Sunday and then accelerates northward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the
wave soon after it moves off the coast, and subsequent development
will be possible while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the end of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west
of the coast of Portugal is producing limited shower activity. This
system has only a slight chance of acquiring subtropical
characteristics later today while it moves eastward to east-
northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern
Spain. By tonight, the low will encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it drifts northwestward today and then
accelerates northward early this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with
the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the
system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

$$
Forecaster Blake
&&
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ABNT20 KNHC 241149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to show signs of organization.
Additional development of the low is possible, and this system
could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the
next couple of days while it moves northward and
north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure has moved
offshore of west Africa with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive
for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 251152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east-northeast
of Bermuda is moving northward to north-northeastward at 15 to 20
mph. The associated shower activity remains disorganized and the
circulation is broad and elongated. This system could still become
a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today before
encountering increasingly hostile conditions tonight and Wednesday,
likely ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development
by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 261132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for
development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
could form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by
this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 271158
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Satellite and microwave imagery indicate that an area of low
pressure, located about midway between Africa and the Windward
Islands, has become better organized overnight. If the current
trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived
tropical storm later today. However, environmental conditions are
expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its
chances for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 301136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly):
A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico
eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no
signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely
during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system should bring locally
heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days.
Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle
of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana
have become more concentrated. However, current surface observations
indicate that the system has not yet strengthened. Slow development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it
drifts westward to west-northwestward across the northern Gulf.
Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor
the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 311143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
An area of low pressure located a little more than 100 miles south
of the coast of southern Louisiana continues to produce a small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization. Additional development is expected as the low moves
slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper
Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday.

Interests along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts
should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm
watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later
today. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system this morning. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Near Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A surface trough of low pressure (the remnants of Tropical Storm
Dolly) is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
that extends from near Hispaniola eastward to the northern Leeward
Islands. Redevelopment, if any, would be slow to occur during the
next few days as the system encounters generally unfavorable
upper-level winds while moving quickly west-northwestward at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas during the next couple of
days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 011122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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