ACUS11 KWNS 272056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272055
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Utah into southeast Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272055Z - 272300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind gusts is expected to
increase through the remainder of this afternoon into early evening.
The areal coverage of the threat is expected to remain too limited
for a watch consideration.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a subtle disturbance embedded within a moist,
mid-level flow regime, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing across
eastern Elko County NV and western Tooele County UT as of 2045Z.
RAP-based proximity soundings indicate a well-mixed, 3-km deep
boundary layer with MLCAPE of generally less than 500 J/kg. Some
increase in deep-layer shear is forecast this afternoon, which
coupled with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
strong evaporational-cooling potential in the sub-cloud layer will
support a few severe wind gusts as convection progresses from
southwest through northeast across the region.

..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qott9YIxuZfK2Oy_lfZnWVy8VvCldwtCV1a2l5aUjmqDk6Pm74t1Q-n_buwckbIc5oDPb4qTUMwCzgwmeOyaZjH3pw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...LKN...

LAT...LON 40961417 42101367 43011221 42511145 41161137 40251199
39911310 39851355 40221417 40961417

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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