1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2178

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 00:41:30 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 310041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310040
    SDZ000-NDZ000-310145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2178
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

    Areas affected...far southern ND...northern into northeastern SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636...637...

    Valid 310040Z - 310145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636, 637
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts will likely be highest to the
    south of residual stratus shield and a relatively cool boundary
    layer and focus along the Dakotas border into northeast SD during
    the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A several hour loop of visible imagery shows a
    slow-to-erode stratus shield over southern ND where surface
    temperatures remain in the lower 70s deg F. South of the
    differential heating/baroclinic zone, surface temperatures have
    warmed into the lower to mid 80s across northeast SD. The 00 UTC
    Aberdeen, SD raob depicted the unstable boundary layer across
    northeast SD (3100 J/kg MLCAPE) and it sampled 30-kt and 70-kt 500
    mb and 250 mb southwesterly flow, respectively. Given the organized
    squall line moving east along the Dakotas border, expecting the
    greatest severe-wind risk to focus near and south of the surface
    boundary during the next few hours (through 03-04 UTC).

    ..Smith.. 08/31/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4FKhXKrDsVlnreKXchf0MCggkZK_uYNVL2H9CkDlVAX8zBDdZhnUk7jUJON6Vb2M6K5rBJDvx9ycGbnYMtScZvRcRto$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46120069 45970007 46109936 46409890 46449807 46279766
    45889748 45589753 45339776 45249864 45260040 45360073
    45570082 46120069

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)