ACUS11 KWNS 311739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311738
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-312015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Utah into northwest Arizona and far
eastern Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311738Z - 312015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across portions of
the Great Basin through early evening, and may pose a localized
threat of large hail and severe winds. This threat should remain
sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is evident across western UT,
northwest AZ, and far eastern NV based on recent GOES imagery and
lighting trends. This comes as daytime heating of a seasonally moist
air mass erodes residual inhibition and ascent ahead of an
approaching low-amplitude upper wave overspreads the region. Based
on latest forecast soundings and RAP mesoanalysis estimates, MUCAPE
values are likely increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range through
the lower CO River Valley under a pocket of colder mid-level
temperatures. Although buoyancy generally decreases with northward
extent, a combination of mid-level cold advection and continued
daytime heating should augment buoyancy region-wide through late
afternoon and support a steady increase in thunderstorm coverage.

Recent VWP observations from KICX recently sampled 50-55 knot flow
near 6 km AGL atop weaker low-level winds. While hodograph structure
is somewhat poor, sufficient deep-layer wind shear is in place to
promote organized convection - including a few transient supercells
- capable of producing large hail. With time, storm mode will likely
become a modulating factor to large hail production as storm
coverage increases and clustered modes become more probable.
However, this may promote cold pool consolidation through late
afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be maximized.
Consequently, the potential for severe wind gusts may increase
through late afternoon/early evening as convection spreads
north/northeast across western UT.

Regardless, latest time-lagged CAM ensembles appear to be capturing
recent convection trends will and generally suggest that the overall
severe hail/wind threat should remain too widely spaced/isolated to
warrant watch issuance.

..Moore/Gleason.. 08/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4NayZMfvrPGjcxOVasBeMBWQ00Y_Tyca6947T3tcM1JVSZUOveOiWNf41wXy8fP1rv0vomDhOcGh1hh9r_swYhDULlc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 35861380 36261388 36841410 37591451 38021462 38721461
39721416 40071351 40161283 39931211 39521161 39181137
38481138 37751144 37261159 36751179 36081197 35151259
34941296 34931346 34931368 35031387 35181400 35481397
35861380

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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