ACUS11 KWNS 312054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312054
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-312300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico and the
far western Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312054Z - 312300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon
across southeast Colorado and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed over the higher terrain
across south-central Colorado with a stronger core in northwest Las
Animas county. The downstream environment is weakly unstable (250 to
500 J/kg MLCAPE) with moderate effective shear (30 to 35 knots).
This weak instability is a limiting factor to a greater threat, but
the shear could support a few more organized storms if any
longer-lived cells can develop. Additional development appears
imminent near the NM/CO border as visible satellite imagery shows
clustering cu near the Raton Mesa. Severe wind gusts will be the
primary threat within this well-mixed environment. No severe
thunderstorm watch is anticipated at this time.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 08/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7SjbS5PtsNYdM26iIlAH0H-gu5kmaS5NtjGwmHTuodcMDvc09fA74Axo0kSC-qsaO-DAWI0An7pHHUPwoY3BAHAsMMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36750511 37770484 38660414 39160313 38950232 38620203
37560201 36930216 36430297 36160394 36210488 36750511

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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