ACUS11 KWNS 312155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312155
AZZ000-CAZ000-312330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...southwest AZ vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312155Z - 312330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may produce occasionally strong
outflow gusts and marginal hail through evening. Severe potential is
expected to remain limited overall and a severe thunderstorm watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong cells have developed this afternoon
near/east of the Lower CO Valley over southwest AZ. Vertical shear
around 25-35 kt and MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg will support
transient organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and hot
surface temperatures will promote strong outflow gusts with the
strongest cells. While midlevel lapse rates remain modest, and west/southwesterly flow around 10-20 kt through the midlevels,
sufficient instability through the hail growth zone could also
support marginally severe hail in the strongest updrafts. Storm
coverage is expected to remain sparse and the overall severe risk
will remain limited through evening, though a stronger storm or two
is possible.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 08/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6X_MEO6oC7mHYLxMJJ2mFQw7TPGBTiEZ96fz_fUQ-O_DCYrN2SBovzK1MDEmDFEPlrC7KYEfxxJq-2sXcuNxurE1uKg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 32511498 35061450 35161381 34881341 33861308 32411318
31831323 32031433 32201482 32511498

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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