ACUS11 KWNS 312347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312346
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-010145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern CO...western KS...and southwest NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312346Z - 010145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may persist
into the evening hours across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska. Convective coverage and evolution are uncertain,
but if storms continue to develop/persist, strong gusts and hail
will be possible. Given uncertainty a watch is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southeast Colorado has
persisted for the past couple of hours, producing at least two
severe gusts of 58 mph and 61 mph over the past hour. Additional
weak convection has slowly been developing further north along a
surface trough/theta-e gradient near the CO/KS border. To the east
of ongoing convection, higher dewpoints are in place, with upper 50s
to mid 60s F noted from far eastern CO into far southwest NE and
western KS. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop boundary layer
moisture will continue to support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE within a
weak low-level upslope flow regime. Weak capping will increase with
onset of nocturnal cooling, but forecast guidance develops a modest south/southwesterly low-level jet over the next few hours. This
could allow the cluster over southeast CO to persist as it shifts east/northeast, or foster new development within low-level
isentropic ascent on the edges of the low-level jet into western
KS/southwest NE this evening.

It remains uncertain how convection will evolve over the next few
hours, but if storms can be maintained or new sustained development
occurs as the low-level jet increases, some risk for strong gusts
and hail will be possible. Area will continue to be monitored
through the evening.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 08/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_5x38E36JzEDGw5RBMxplHEiPavymBHhjm_IUzr2PKeb1vWh0DMmOv4uGGbgx8uztD_RJlJNBehk52n21_cbIvWTpnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37210355 38420369 40170261 40830121 40680053 40270007
39040057 37740167 37380212 37250285 37210355

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)