ACUS11 KWNS 012017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012017
IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...north-central to northeast Nebraska into
south-central to southeast South Dakota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 012017Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon/evening across parts of northeast Nebraska and southeast
South Dakota and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been persistent across
north-central Nebraska for much of the day. Recently, the cu-field
across north-central Nebraska has started to expand, consistent with
the erosion of MLCIN from SPC mesoanalysis. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough, currently across eastern Colorado and the Nebraska
Panhandle, will advance east through the evening with weak ascent
overspreading the uncapped warm sector. In addition, the low-level
jet will strengthen through the evening and into the overnight hours
which will lead to additional ascent across the region. Moderate to
strong instability, combined with 50 to 55 knots of effective shear
will support supercell storm mode initially with some threat for
very large hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. As storms grow upscale, a
more focused corridor of severe wind gusts may develop near the
NE/SD border into the evening.

A severe thunderstorm watch will need to be issued this
afternoon/evening to address this threat.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 09/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9XUjHP_B170hukIyOmtmr0bL4j2Cdi3hQ5dsJlUW5ncbL41h_A_KimybWovLSHru4-n9LY1tiGIQm6Ug9kSK9jaHJxc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42879986 43389982 43939892 44299796 44139717 43749667
42959652 42219686 41459833 41079962 41029994 42370004
42879986

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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