ACUS11 KWNS 012232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012232
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...East-central/southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey
into the DelMarVa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638...

Valid 012232Z - 020000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells may eventually grow upscale this
evening. This will be the focus for the greatest damaging wind/large
hail risk over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection in southeast Pennsylvania has some
potential to congeal early this evening. The propagation of this
cluster will likely be somewhat skewed to the west given the greater
buoyancy present in south-central Pennsylvania. This activity will
probably track towards the DelMarVa with time. Farther east,
activity has increased over the last hour, though it has remained
more cellular. Temperatures near the coast are slightly cooler. Wind
damage will remain possible with all activity this evening. The
greatest potential for wind damage (and marginally severe hail) will
be with the westernmost storms.

..Wendt.. 09/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6qyV5XbcXHKScbVT1Tu8sxMYKMCSnX9zldNp6ibYDDp9klfnlA__wfB_Tfc1Clu6z8woSqSxlVEvVUu0ZGjNa609rQo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39247599 39417627 39877663 40857699 41047691 41257672
41417623 41207501 41037447 40957422 40197437 39657468
39307516 39147547 39247599

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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