ACUS11 KWNS 020147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020146
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-020345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southern New Jersey...DelMarVa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638...

Valid 020146Z - 020345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain possible within the DelMarVa into
far southern New Jersey. No additional watches are expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KDOX showed a collapsing
thunderstorm core near the mouth of the Delaware River into Delaware
Bay. Measured wind gusts along the Bay shore were around 70 mph over
the last hour. Given the outflow moving ahead of this activity,
storm intensity will likely gradually decrease as they move through
Delaware Bay into southern parts of the DelMarVa. Damaging wind
gusts still remain possible, however. Additionally, another cluster
of storms moving along the southeastern New Jersey coastline will
similarly pose a damaging wind threat, though it will begin to
interact with outflow from the Delaware Bay cluster soon. Where
outflow boundaries intersect, a brief tornado remains possible. No
additional watches are expected tonight.

..Wendt.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!56eGkPlVE2JgbNX5RipvNLqKmGFC0kaNdizTfMbtgjwcO6CP5krw_BAO5muPS7DyZP45iXU6M8iwsvfsbKn0-8v-N7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38837600 39547605 39647563 39637516 39697499 39857447
39847440 39677370 38517482 38237509 38217536 38247571
38837600

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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