ACUS11 KWNS 020709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020708
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MN into west-central WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641...

Valid 020708Z - 020845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts will continue through the early
morning with an ongoing MCS.

DISCUSSION...A compact but long-lived and well-organized MCS is
moving across southeast MN early this morning. This MCS recently
produced gusts of 60-70 mph in the Rochester, MN area, and
relatively strong inbound velocities continue to be observed from
the KARX radar. Given its current organization and favorable
deep-layer shear noted from the KARX VWP, this MCS will likely
continue to pose a short-term threat for severe gusts as it
approaches west-central WI. With time, this MCS will begin to
encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment, as it moves
into a region increasingly influenced by outflow from downstream
convection. As a result, the longevity of severe-wind potential is
uncertain, but at least some threat for wind damage with the ongoing
MCS may eventually reach eastern portions of WW 641.

..Dean.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5pzrpeOWv9So0wYFf_S-z997AExYCo1ipSVLX6pbZ06ZjOvop9TlNvCkr55MYPmTx9w5tInXERBQDxdjGWwiWdQm2kk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44439223 44549098 44489043 44179009 43929010 43649049
43529106 43489156 43529238 43909221 44439223

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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