Forum: Richard Fun House

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 12:56:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging gusts are possible
across portions of the Ohio Valley into southern Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas this afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large
hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the
northern and central Plains today into tonight.

...Ohio Valley into the Carolinas...
An MCS continues to progress southeastward towards the central
Appalachians this morning. The outflow has surged well ahead of the
deep convection along the western edge of this MCS, but remains much
closer to the two primary cores of deep convection along the central
and eastern portions of the MCS. General expectation is for this MCS
to continue southeastward across the central Appalachians and into
the Mid-Atlantic, while the westward-progressing outflow stalls and
loses definition.

Currently, the airmass downstream across the Mid-Atlantic is
characterized by dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s across
northern VA into the mid 70s across southeast NC/eastern SC. Strong
heating is anticipated across much of this region today, with high
temperatures ranging from the low 90s over northern to the upper
90s/low 100s across central/eastern SC. These warm and moist surface
conditions will support moderate to strong afternoon buoyancy,
despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Reintensification and/or renewed thunderstorm development is expected as the MCS (and associated
vorticity maximum) interacts with this destabilized airmass. This
region will be along the southerly periphery of a belt of mid-level northwesterlies, and the resulting vertical shear could help
maintain a favorable cold pool/updraft balance needed to maintenance
of a progressive convective line. Guidance varies on whether one
coherent convective line or a series of smaller bowing segments will
develop, but either case would yield a threat for damaging gusts.
Highest probability for damaging gusts is expected across eastern NC
where the best overlap between buoyancy and vertical is expected.

Additional afternoon development is expected farther west, from the
middle OH Valley through Middle TN, where residual outflow will
likely be present with a destabilized airmass. Weak shear should
limit storm organization but isolated damaging gusts are possible.

...Northern and Central Plains...
Elevated thunderstorms have persisted throughout much of the night
from northeast NE across eastern SD. A second area of thunderstorm
activity exists farther norther across north-central ND. An isolated
instance of hail is possible over both of these regions for the next
few hours before thunderstorm intensity wanes in response to the
cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet.

Despite rising heights throughout the day, most guidance suggests
that low-level convergence along both the lee trough and
outflow-modified front in NE will be sufficient for convective
initiation this afternoon. Limited vertical shear and a deeply mixed
boundary layer suggest an outflow-dominant storm mode with the
primary hazard being widely-spaced severe wind gusts.

Relatively higher thunderstorm coverage is possible across the
central High Plains this evening as warm-air advection supports
additional thunderstorm activity. Some clustering of this activity
is possible, but vertical shear will be weak and overall storm
intensity and organization should be modest.

...Western Montana...
A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will extend across the
region, to the east of an upper low over the Pacific Northwest.
Increasing mid-level moisture and forcing for ascent associated with
a weak mid-level disturbance is expected to support an increase in
high-based showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. Lapse rates will be steep with strong deep-layer shear, but
the absence of appreciable moisture will limit MLCAPE to generally
less than 250 J/kg. As such the potential for severe wind gusts is
currently too low to warrant 5% wind probabilities.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:00:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051624
SWODY1
SPC AC 051622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
damaging winds should occur this afternoon/evening across parts of
the central Appalachians into southern Virginia and the Carolinas.
Isolated large hail and severe winds may also occur over parts of
the northern/central Plains through tonight.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas...
An earlier MCS across the OH Valley has weakened as it crossed/moved
eastward over the central Appalachians. The strongest remaining
convective segment is ongoing late this morning across parts of
southwest VA/northeast TN. Robust destabilization is expected to
continue this afternoon downstream of this activity across southern
VA into the Carolinas, with MLCAPE peaking around 2500-3500 J/kg
over central/eastern NC. This region will be on the southern
periphery of modestly enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow,
and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to maintain some
convective organization.

Current expectations are for one or more thunderstorm clusters to
gradually increase in intensity this afternoon as they spread
eastward across southern VA and central/eastern NC, with some
uncertainty whether the ongoing convection will restrengthen, or if
new development will occur along its outflow. Regardless, latest
guidance and observational trends still suggest that a relatively
greater threat for damaging winds should exist this afternoon across central/eastern NC and vicinity, where the greatest thunderstorm
coverage, maxima in MLCAPE/DCAPE, and steepened low-level lapse
rates are forecast. Have therefore introduced higher severe wind
probabilities (30% area) across this region. Isolated hail may also
occur with the strongest cores that can develop, although mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain rather poor. Severe potential
should gradually wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
and as convection moves offshore.

Farther west, outflow from the morning thunderstorms may serve as a
focus for renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts
of the OH Valley southeastward into the TN Valley. This region will
be displaced from the stronger flow aloft present over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, with weak deep-layer shear expected. Still,
some risk for isolated damaging winds may exist with any loosely
organized cells/clusters that can develop given the presence of
moderate to locally strong instability.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A highly amplified mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over
the central CONUS into south-central Canada through the period, with
generally neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights expected over
the northern/central Plains. Ongoing elevated cells across northern
ND may continue to pose an isolated severe hail threat in the short
term, but weakening low-level warm advection should tend to result
in a further decrease in intensity with this activity. Otherwise,
additional isolated to perhaps widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of a surface lee
trough over the northern/central Plains. While mid-level flow and
related effective bulk shear should remain weak, occasional severe
gusts may still occur with convective downdrafts given a well-mixed
boundary layer. Some risk for hail and gusty winds may also exist
with elevated convection that should eventually develop tonight into
early Sunday morning in a renewed/modest low-level warm advection
regime.

...Western Montana...
To the east of a closed mid-level low over WA/OR, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper-level winds will extend across the northern
Rockies. Gradually increasing moisture and large-scale ascent aloft
associated with a weak/embedded shortwave trough are expected to
support an increase in isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Lapse rates through low/mid levels will be steep
with strong deep-layer shear present, but modest low-level moisture
should limit MLCAPE to generally less than 500 J/kg. The potential
for severe wind gusts still appears too low to justify including 5%
wind probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 09/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 20:05:00 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 052002
SWODY1
SPC AC 052000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
scattered damaging winds will continue this afternoon/evening across
parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Isolated large hail
and severe winds may also occur over parts of the northern/central
Plains through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made with this update. The SLGT Risk was
trimmed behind an east-southeastward moving band of convection
moving across the Carolinas. While isolated redevelopment cannot be
entirely ruled out in the wake of this activity, the primary severe
risk will continue spreading eastward to the coast into this
evening.

Farther west, 5-percent hail probabilities were added in parts of
the lower OH Valley. Here, relatively steep deep-layer lapse rates,
around 30 kt of effective shear, and a cellular mode may support
isolated instances of marginally severe hail.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track.

..Weinman.. 09/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026/

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas...
An earlier MCS across the OH Valley has weakened as it crossed/moved
eastward over the central Appalachians. The strongest remaining
convective segment is ongoing late this morning across parts of
southwest VA/northeast TN. Robust destabilization is expected to
continue this afternoon downstream of this activity across southern
VA into the Carolinas, with MLCAPE peaking around 2500-3500 J/kg
over central/eastern NC. This region will be on the southern
periphery of modestly enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow,
and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to maintain some
convective organization.

Current expectations are for one or more thunderstorm clusters to
gradually increase in intensity this afternoon as they spread
eastward across southern VA and central/eastern NC, with some
uncertainty whether the ongoing convection will restrengthen, or if
new development will occur along its outflow. Regardless, latest
guidance and observational trends still suggest that a relatively
greater threat for damaging winds should exist this afternoon across central/eastern NC and vicinity, where the greatest thunderstorm
coverage, maxima in MLCAPE/DCAPE, and steepened low-level lapse
rates are forecast. Have therefore introduced higher severe wind
probabilities (30% area) across this region. Isolated hail may also
occur with the strongest cores that can develop, although mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain rather poor. Severe potential
should gradually wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
and as convection moves offshore.

Farther west, outflow from the morning thunderstorms may serve as a
focus for renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts
of the OH Valley southeastward into the TN Valley. This region will
be displaced from the stronger flow aloft present over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, with weak deep-layer shear expected. Still,
some risk for isolated damaging winds may exist with any loosely
organized cells/clusters that can develop given the presence of
moderate to locally strong instability.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A highly amplified mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over
the central CONUS into south-central Canada through the period, with
generally neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights expected over
the northern/central Plains. Ongoing elevated cells across northern
ND may continue to pose an isolated severe hail threat in the short
term, but weakening low-level warm advection should tend to result
in a further decrease in intensity with this activity. Otherwise,
additional isolated to perhaps widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of a surface lee
trough over the northern/central Plains. While mid-level flow and
related effective bulk shear should remain weak, occasional severe
gusts may still occur with convective downdrafts given a well-mixed
boundary layer. Some risk for hail and gusty winds may also exist
with elevated convection that should eventually develop tonight into
early Sunday morning in a renewed/modest low-level warm advection
regime.

...Western Montana...
To the east of a closed mid-level low over WA/OR, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper-level winds will extend across the northern
Rockies. Gradually increasing moisture and large-scale ascent aloft
associated with a weak/embedded shortwave trough are expected to
support an increase in isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Lapse rates through low/mid levels will be steep
with strong deep-layer shear present, but modest low-level moisture
should limit MLCAPE to generally less than 500 J/kg. The potential
for severe wind gusts still appears too low to justify including 5%
wind probabilities at this time.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 00:58:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 060058
SWODY1
SPC AC 060056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected into tonight over northeast Colorado into parts of western
Nebraska, including the Panhandle. Isolated occurrences of large
hail and damaging winds remain possible overnight across a broader
portion of the northern and central Plains. Damaging wind potential
is expected to diminish within the next couple of hours over
portions of Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina.

...Northern and Central Plains...

Separate clusters of thunderstorms, including supercells, are
ongoing this evening over the NE Panhandle into northeast CO ahead
of a weak mid-level disturbance moving through WY and north-central
CO. The 00Z LBF sounding sampled relatively steep lapse rates with
MLCAPE of around 2500 J/kg along with a vertically veering wind
profile with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear. As such, expect the
supercell threat to persist for the next hour or two, prior to
storms merging into a larger complex along a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet. Large hail up to two inches will be the
main hazard in the near-term; however, the potential for severe wind
gusts will become more prevalent if an organized cold pool can
evolve.

Elsewhere, storms are widely scattered across the Dakotas with the
00Z ABR sounding indicating a moderately unstable, but capped air
mass for surface-based parcels. Additional, elevated storms appear
possible overnight along the low-level jet axis with a risk for
isolated occurrence of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Central Georgia into southern South Carolina...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from south
of Atlanta into southern SC, along an outflow boundary remnant from
storms earlier today. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts
remain possible for the next hour or two before low-level lapse
rates begin to weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

...Kentucky...

A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently intensified south of
the OH River, east of Owensboro, in the vicinity of a weak surface
boundary, and ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance approaching the
area from the north. Regional 00Z soundings indicate the air mass
remains moderately unstable with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear.
The ongoing storms will remain capable of strong wind gusts for the
next hour or so before the boundary layer begins to stabilize.

..Mead.. 09/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 05:44:02 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 060543
SWODY1
SPC AC 060541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of
the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered
large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and
central Montana Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional areas at
risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of the Interior West,
over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast
states.

...Synopsis...

A prominent mid-level ridge over the central U.S. is forecast to
weaken during the latter half of the period in response to the
progression of two distinct short-wave troughs and associated wind
maxima through the Interior West. Separate, weaker perturbations
will move through the ridge axis over the northern Plains/mid-MO
Valley region on Sunday, contributing to thunderstorm development in
those areas. Elsewhere, a mid-level disturbance over the OH Valley
Sunday morning is forecast to move into the Cumberland Plateau
vicinity by afternoon, also likely serving as a focus for
thunderstorm development.

At the surface, a lee cyclone will persist over the northern High
Plains, with that feature potentially deepening Sunday night in
response to increasing height falls aloft. High pressure will build
across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Northeast with a baroclinic
zone present between those surface features from the mid-MO Valley
through the Ozarks and TN Valley into the Southeast.

...Southern Appalachians into the Savannah River Valley...

Temperatures in the 90s will coincide with boundary-layer dewpoints
in the 70s to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass
(i.e., MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg) by afternoon with steepening
low-level lapse rates. Aided by forcing attendant to the mid-level
disturbance mentioned above, that thermodynamic environment will
support an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through
the afternoon along and ahead of the surface front.

Some increase in mid-level winds may accompany the disturbance with
up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear forecast in the vicinity of the
frontal zone. As such, the potential will exist for longer-lived
multi-cells and line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps some large hail into evening.

...Ozark Plateau into the Gulf Coast States...

A similar thermodynamic environment to that previously described is
anticipated ahead of the surface front Sunday afternoon. Generally
weak forcing for ascent and vertical shear are expected to limit the
potential for a more organized severe weather threat. However, the
degree of instability will support briefly intense pulse-type storms
capable of locally damaging wet microbursts during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...

Increasing height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level flow will
overspread the region Sunday afternoon into night ahead of a
vigorous short-wave trough pivoting through the base of the Pacific
Northwest upper low. The strongest instability (i.e., MLCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg) is forecast across portions of western into central
MT with stronger capping with eastward extent. The presence of 40-50
kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of mainly
large hail through Sunday evening. While forecast hodographs exhibit considerable curvature/veering winds in the lowest 1-2-km AGL,
stability concerns in the boundary layer may limit severe-wind-gust
and tornado potential.

Weaker instability is forecast from northeast NV and northern UT
into central and eastern ID. However, the presence of steep lapse
rates and kinematics mentioned above may yield a few severe storms
capable of severe wind gusts.

...Northern and central High Plains...

Stronger forcing for ascent is expected to remain to the west and
east of the region through the daylight hours, leading to
uncertainty in storm coverage in the vicinity of the surface low and
lee trough. The 00Z models indicate an increasing potential for at
least isolated thunderstorms from mid-afternoon into evening along
the lee trough. RAP-based forecast soundings show steep lapse rates
and resulting MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg. The strongest deep-layer
shear of 40-50 kt is forecast across eastern MT into ND with
decreasing magnitudes with southward extent along the lee trough. As
such, a conditional risk for supercells capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts exists. While Marginal Risk wind and hail
probabilities will be maintained with this forecast, an upgrade to
level 2/Slight Risk is possible in subsequent updates.

...Eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the lower Missouri
Valley...

Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z
Sunday, aided by forcing associated with the weak disturbance(s)
cresting the mid-level ridge axis. A subset of the early-day storms
is expected to persist into afternoon with additional storms forming
on the leading edge of more persistent cloud cover, where pockets of
stronger heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low/mid 70s
will yield MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The 00Z models suggest that
storms will eventually grow upscale into an MCS that tracks south
along or to the immediate cool side of the surface boundary through
portions of the middle and lower MO Valley Sunday afternoon into
evening. It currently appears that deep-layer shear of generally
less than 30 kt and marginally steep mid-level lapse rates may limit
the degree of cold pool organization and a greater/more continuous damaging-wind threat. Nonetheless, the setup appears supportive of
sporadic damaging wind and severe hail occurrences.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 12:53:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061252
SWODY1
SPC AC 061251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of
the Southeast this afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered
large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk
for isolated severe wind and hail are parts of the Interior West,
over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast
states.

...Southern Appalachians through coastal SC and GA...
A moist airmass is in place across the region this morning, with
recent surface analysis revealing a reservoir of low to mid 70s
dewpoints. Strong heating is anticipated across this region today,
with afternoon temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. This strong
heating will destabilize the airmass and contribute to
moderate/strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg likely
during the late afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough will progress
through the northwesterly flow aloft extending over the area,
interacting with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm
development. Vertical shear will generally be weak, limiting updraft organization and promoting a predominantly outflow-dominant storm
mode. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and abundant moisture
will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts with any
longer-lived multi-cells or line segments. Updraft augmentation due
to storm interactions could also result in isolated hail.

...Ozark Plateau into the Gulf Coast States...
A corridor of greater low-level moisture arcs from the Southeast
states through Arkansas and Missouri. Daytime heating will
destabilize this airmass, helping to support thunderstorm
development in areas of low-level confluence. Weak forcing for
ascent and vertical shear are expected to limit storm organization.
However, the degree of instability will support briefly intense
pulse-type storms capable of locally damaging wet microbursts during
the afternoon and early evening hours.

...Eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the lower Missouri
Valley...
A linear MCS continues to push eastward across the central Plains
this morning. A notable vorticity maximum has developed within the
northern portion of this line. Its motion appears to be more
northeasterly than the line itself, and new development is occurring
downstream of this vorticity maximum across south-central/southeast
SD and adjacent northeast NE. A corridor of relatively greater
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low 70s) exists downstream
of this vorticity maximum and attendant MCS from eastern SD through
western IA and into northern MO. General expectation is for
thunderstorm coverage and intensity to increase later this
morning/early afternoon as the vorticity maximum/remnant MCS
interact with this moist and diurnally destabilizing airmass. Much
of this development is expected to occur along or to the immediate
cool side of the surface boundary that extends through portions of
the middle and lower MO Valley. Occasionally strong updrafts could
result in isolated hail and/or damaging gusts, but the weak
mid-level flow and associated modest deep-layer shear should limit
storm organization and contribute to clustered multicellular mode.

...Northern Plains into the northern/central High Plains...
Modest height falls may begin to impinge on northern/central High
Plains during the early evening as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves a belt of stronger southwesterlies just west of the region.
This modest ascent will augment low-level convergence along the lee
trough to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development where the lingering convective inhibition can be
overcome. This appears most likely across southeast WY and northeast
CO where persistent low-level easterly flow could keep dewpoints in
the 60s. High-based, outflow-dominant storms will support the
potential for isolated strong to severe gusts.

Increasing mid-level flow will support stronger deep-layer vertical
shear farther north (into eastern MT and western ND), but stronger
convective inhibition may linger, casting doubt whether storms will
initiate. If initiation is realized, storm motion could take it into
the more moist and buoyant airmass north of the surface low where
thermodynamic profiles are favorable for large to very large hail.
Will maintain 5% wind/hail probabilities but introduce a CIG1 for
hail given the conditional potential.

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Increasing height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level flow will
spread across the region today ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough
pivoting through the base of a Pacific Northwest upper low.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the higher terrain
before then progressing northeastward towards lower elevations.
Deep-layer vertical shear of 40 to 50 kt will support supercells,
with large hail as the primary severe risk. Greater buoyancy is
expected across central MT, but low-level stability will likely
persist across this region as well, potentially limiting the
severe-wind and tornado potential.

Weaker instability is forecast from northeast NV and northern UT
into central and eastern ID. However, the presence of steep lapse
rates and kinematics mentioned above may yield a few severe storms
capable of severe wind gusts.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 16:32:26 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061632
SWODY1
SPC AC 061630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...MONTANA...AND NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds should occur across parts of the Southeast
this afternoon/early evening. Scattered large hail is forecast
across portions of Montana and North Dakota this afternoon and
evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
today across parts of the northern Great Basin, northern/central
Plains, and Missouri Valley to the Ozarks.

...Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
GA/SC late this morning, with surface temperatures already in the
mid/upper 80s to low 90s. A weak front is draped from northwest to
southeast from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast, with
generally low to mid 70s surface dewpoints present to its south.
Continued diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support the
development of moderate to strong instability (greater with
southward/westward extent into GA/AL and north FL). Compared to the
past couple of days, this region will be displaced from the stronger
mid-level west-northwesterly flow present across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Corresponding deep-layer shear is expected
to remain rather modest (less than 25 kt), with only loosely
organized updrafts forecast. Even with these kinematic limitations,
steepening low-level lapse rates through the afternoon may still
promote isolated to scattered damaging winds with clusters that
develop and spread south-southeastward through the early evening.
Isolated hail may also occur with the more robust cells that can
develop initially. The damaging wind threat should be more isolated
with westward extent into the lower MS Valley compared to GA and the
Carolinas, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with some
expansion.

...Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest and British
Columbia will pivot towards the northern Rockies through the period,
with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the northern
Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in
MT. At the surface, mostly cloudy conditions are present over much
of western/central MT this morning. Even so, recent NAM/RAP forecast
soundings across this region show supercell profiles later this
afternoon and evening as mid/upper-level winds foster strong
deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for multiple supercells
to develop initially over the higher terrain and spread quickly
northeastward. While there is still some uncertainty regarding
boundary-layer destabilization, sufficient MUCAPE is forecast to
support supercell maintenance into the adjacent High Plains through
the evening. Large hail should be the main threat with this activity
(with some 2+ inches possible given the very favorable deep-layer
shear), but isolated severe gusts may also occur. The Slight Risk
has been adjusted/expanded a little eastward in MT based on latest
short-term guidance trends. High-based thunderstorms may also pose
an isolated threat for severe gusts across parts of the northern
Great Basin this afternoon.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Missouri Valley
and Ozarks...
Ongoing and likely elevated supercells with a threat for large hail
across parts of western ND are being aided by a subtle mid-level
shortwave trough cresting the upper ridge that is anchored over the
central CONUS. Favorable lapse rates aloft and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow is likely supporting updraft organization/intensity with this ongoing activity. The airmass
downstream across central/eastern ND should gradually destabilize
through the afternoon, with a moist low-level airmass present to the
east of a weak surface low over eastern MT/southwest ND/northwest
SD. It remains unclear whether these ongoing supercells will be
maintained farther east across ND, but given the favorable airmass
and sufficient deep-layer shear present, have opted to add a
targeted Slight Risk for the large hail potential.

Additional convection is occurring farther south in SD, southwest
MN/northwest IA, and northeast NE in association with a mid-level
vorticity maximum evident on water vapor satellite imagery moving
eastward across SD/NE. There is a narrow corridor of greater
instability present across this region southward to the Ozarks,
generally along/near a weak surface front. Isolated hail may occur
with the stronger cores in the short term, but it remains unclear if
convection will be able to form into a southward-moving cluster
across eastern NE/western IA later this afternoon and evening. If
this does occur, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds
would exist. Have deferred a possible upgrade to Slight Risk given
the uncertainty with how ongoing convection will evolve/impact the
developing warm sector, and due to the presence of the large-scale mid/upper-level ridge and generally modest flow aloft. A separate
area of high-based thunderstorms that should develop this afternoon
along/east of a surface lee trough across the central High Plains
could produce occasional hail and severe gusts, even as deep-layer
shear remains modest.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 09/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 20:02:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 062002
SWODY1
SPC AC 062000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...MONTANA...AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds should occur across parts of the Southeast
this afternoon/early evening. Scattered large hail is forecast
across portions of Montana this afternoon and evening. A focused
corridor for damaging winds and severe hail is forecast across parts
of the Middle and Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur today across parts of the northern
Great Basin, northern/central Plains, and the Ozarks.

...20Z Update...
A Slight Risk was added across parts of the Middle and Lower
Missouri Valley -- driven by 15-percent wind and hail probabilities.
Here, ample diurnal heating amid a very moist air mass is yielding a
corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy (around 4000 J/kg MLCAPE
per the latest HRRR SFCOA data). Large-scale ascent preceding a
convectively augmented midlevel impulse should promote an increase
in storm coverage in this north/south corridor through the
afternoon. The strong buoyancy and around 30 kt of effective shear
should promote a mix of organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
severe hail. See MCD #2253 for more details.

Farther north, the Slight Risk in ND was removed. The latest mode
evolution suggests a reduced hail threat compared to this morning.
However, a locally favorable corridor for damaging wind gusts may
develop into parts of eastern ND this afternoon/early evening.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track.

..Weinman.. 09/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026/

...Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Recent visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
GA/SC late this morning, with surface temperatures already in the
mid/upper 80s to low 90s. A weak front is draped from northwest to
southeast from the southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Coast, with
generally low to mid 70s surface dewpoints present to its south.
Continued diurnal heating of this moist airmass will support the
development of moderate to strong instability (greater with
southward/westward extent into GA/AL and north FL). Compared to the
past couple of days, this region will be displaced from the stronger
mid-level west-northwesterly flow present across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Corresponding deep-layer shear is expected
to remain rather modest (less than 25 kt), with only loosely
organized updrafts forecast. Even with these kinematic limitations,
steepening low-level lapse rates through the afternoon may still
promote isolated to scattered damaging winds with clusters that
develop and spread south-southeastward through the early evening.
Isolated hail may also occur with the more robust cells that can
develop initially. The damaging wind threat should be more isolated
with westward extent into the lower MS Valley compared to GA and the
Carolinas, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with some
expansion.

...Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest and British
Columbia will pivot towards the northern Rockies through the period,
with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow overspreading the northern
Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in
MT. At the surface, mostly cloudy conditions are present over much
of western/central MT this morning. Even so, recent NAM/RAP forecast
soundings across this region show supercell profiles later this
afternoon and evening as mid/upper-level winds foster strong
deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for multiple supercells
to develop initially over the higher terrain and spread quickly
northeastward. While there is still some uncertainty regarding
boundary-layer destabilization, sufficient MUCAPE is forecast to
support supercell maintenance into the adjacent High Plains through
the evening. Large hail should be the main threat with this activity
(with some 2+ inches possible given the very favorable deep-layer
shear), but isolated severe gusts may also occur. The Slight Risk
has been adjusted/expanded a little eastward in MT based on latest
short-term guidance trends. High-based thunderstorms may also pose
an isolated threat for severe gusts across parts of the northern
Great Basin this afternoon.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Missouri Valley
and Ozarks...
Ongoing and likely elevated supercells with a threat for large hail
across parts of western ND are being aided by a subtle mid-level
shortwave trough cresting the upper ridge that is anchored over the
central CONUS. Favorable lapse rates aloft and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow is likely supporting updraft organization/intensity with this ongoing activity. The airmass
downstream across central/eastern ND should gradually destabilize
through the afternoon, with a moist low-level airmass present to the
east of a weak surface low over eastern MT/southwest ND/northwest
SD. It remains unclear whether these ongoing supercells will be
maintained farther east across ND, but given the favorable airmass
and sufficient deep-layer shear present, have opted to add a
targeted Slight Risk for the large hail potential.

Additional convection is occurring farther south in SD, southwest
MN/northwest IA, and northeast NE in association with a mid-level
vorticity maximum evident on water vapor satellite imagery moving
eastward across SD/NE. There is a narrow corridor of greater
instability present across this region southward to the Ozarks,
generally along/near a weak surface front. Isolated hail may occur
with the stronger cores in the short term, but it remains unclear if
convection will be able to form into a southward-moving cluster
across eastern NE/western IA later this afternoon and evening. If
this does occur, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds
would exist. Have deferred a possible upgrade to Slight Risk given
the uncertainty with how ongoing convection will evolve/impact the
developing warm sector, and due to the presence of the large-scale mid/upper-level ridge and generally modest flow aloft. A separate
area of high-based thunderstorms that should develop this afternoon
along/east of a surface lee trough across the central High Plains
could produce occasional hail and severe gusts, even as deep-layer
shear remains modest.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 00:42:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070042
SWODY1
SPC AC 070040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered large hail occurrences with hailstones up to two
inches are expected over portions of western and central Montana
this evening into tonight. More sporadic occurrences of large hail
and severe wind gusts appear possible over the northern and central
High Plains, and across parts of the lower Missouri Valley.

...Northern Rockies into the northern Plains...

Separate vorticity lobes and associated wind maxima will progress
into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains tonight with a
resultant zone of height falls/forcing for ascent overspreading the
region. In the lower levels, a surface cyclone will be maintained
over southeast MT while a nocturnal jet develops over the northern
and central High Plains.

Thunderstorms currently intensifying over western MT are expected to
increase in coverage and intensity while spreading into
north-central MT ahead of the western vorticity lobe rounding the
base of the Pacific Northwest upper low. While the boundary layer is
somewhat cool/stable, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates,
MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg, and 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear
will be supportive of supercells with the primary hazard being large
hail up to two inches.

Farther east, isolated to widely scattered storms have developed
along and ahead of a lee trough and the MT surface low from western
ND into northeast CO within a steep lapse rate and moderately
unstable environment (see the 00Z UNR and LBF soundings). Veering
winds with height with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear are
sufficient to support an observed supercell storm mode with the
primary hazards being large hail potentially in excess of two inches
and locally severe wind gusts. A tornado was recently reported with
a slow-moving supercell over McKenzie County, ND. However, sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads within the inflow air mass, and the
tendency for increasing convective inhibition in the coming hours
are likely to limit a continuing tornado threat despite increasing
low-level shear.

Storm coverage is expected to remain limited through the remainder
of the evening with a potential increase later tonight with the
arrival of the eastern vorticity lobe and strengthening low-level
jet. As such, the threat for sporadic large hail and severe wind
gust occurrences may linger into the overnight hours from eastern MT
into the western parts of the Dakotas and NE.

For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion
#2259.

...Lower Missouri Valley...

Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening
over parts of southeast NE, northeast KS, and northwest MO with
activity focused along outflow boundaries and a synoptic front in
the area. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist as of
00Z with observed soundings indicating steep low-level lapse rates
with MLCAPE up to 1500-3000 J/kg. The 00Z TOP sounding sampled
around 30 kt of deep-layer shear, which will remain supportive of
episodic supercell structures for the next couple of hours with an
associated risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion
#2258.

..Mead.. 09/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:58:18 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070556
SWODY1
SPC AC 070555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are
expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and
southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into
evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A
broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential
exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi
Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central
Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough will pivot from the northern Rockies
through the northern High Plains with an associated strengthening of
the mid/upper-level wind field forecast across the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. A low-level jet (LLJ) will also be
sustained over the northern and central Plains into upper MS Valley
ahead of a surface cold front advancing through the northern Plains
and central High Plains.

...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z
Monday from eastern MT into the Dakotas within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding a lead, mid-level disturbance and coincident with
the exit region of the LLJ. The presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of effective bulk
shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an
associated risk for isolated large hail occurrences through the
morning hours as that convective regime shifts east across the
Dakotas.

On the periphery of more persistent cloudiness associated with the
morning storms, stronger insolation coupled with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s F and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are
expected to yield a moderately unstable air mass by mid to late
afternoon with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500+ J/kg and a weakening cap.
Surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly
likely at that time, aided by increasing height falls attending the
primary short-wave trough.

The 00Z models indicate one potentially favored location for storm
development over portions of south-central and southeast SD into
northeast CO, from the vicinity of a secondary surface low southwest
along a pre-frontal trough. RAP-based hodographs over southeast SD
indicate considerable veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL with
effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes
of 40-45 kt, owing to the proximity of the LLJ. Accompanying
thermodynamic profiles suggest modest low-level lapse rates with
some residual capping. However, given surface-based storm initiation
and sustenance, supercells would be likely with an associated large
hail and tornado threat.

A hotter and more well-mixed boundary layer is expected with
southwestward extent ahead of the pre-frontal trough where
high-based storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail appear
possible.

Surface-based storms also appear possible ahead of an occluding
surface low and trailing cold front from northwest into central ND.
While the boundary layer may remain relatively cool from the
early-day storms, cooling mid-level temperatures will effectively
steepen lapse rates, yielding sufficient instability amidst 40-50 kt
of deep-layer layer. As such, supercells appear possible with an
attendant risk for large hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

A hot and very moist air mass is forecast Monday afternoon ahead of
a weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE
increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will remain weak as
will vertical shear; however, the degree of instability and high
moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable
of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 12:46:08 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071245
SWODY1
SPC AC 071244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are
expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South
Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening. A
broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential
exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi
Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central
Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a deep upper trough over the
western CONUS. A trio of notable shortwave troughs are embedded
within this larger troughing, with the lead wave currently
progressing through eastern MT. Expectation is for this lead wave to
continue northeastward into the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces.
Surface low attendant to this lead shortwave is currently over
east-central MT. This low is also forecast to progress northeastward
just ahead of its parent shortwave for much of the day, before then
occluding over southern Saskatchewan this evening.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from central MT into
western ND in the vicinity of this surface low, supported by a
combination of warm advection around the low and large-scale ascent
attendant to the shortwave trough. Warm-air advection is also
supporting additional thunderstorms from the NE Panhandle into
central SD. All of this activity is expected to gradually to shift northeastward this morning in tandem with the progression of the
shortwave and its stronger low/mid-level southerly flow. Steep
mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of
effective bulk shear could support occasional storm organization
with an associated risk for isolated large hail.

Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in
several areas in the wake of the morning storms. One area is along a dryline-like surface trough that is forecast to extend from the
occluding low over southern Saskatchewan to another low over western
SD. Strong low-level convergence is likely along this boundary, with
dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 60s just east of the
boundary. Some convective inhibition may linger, and overall storm
coverage will likely remain isolated to widely scattered as a
result. However, any storms that develop should become supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and a brief
tornado.

Another area is over portions of south-central and southeast SD into
northeast CO, from the vicinity of the secondary surface low of
western SD southwest along a pre-frontal trough. Some limited
convective inhibition may remain over this region as well, likely
keeping the overall storm coverage isolated to widely scattered.
Even so, kinematic profiles do support the potential for supercells
with any persistent deep convective, particularly over southeast SD.
Here, the proximity to the low-level jet results in considerable
veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL, with effective SRH of 200-300
m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt. Primary
severe risk with any supercells is large to very large hail,
although the low-level veering will support some tornado risk as
well.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A hot and very moist air mass is forecast this afternoon ahead of a
weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE
increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent and vertical shear
will remain weak; however, the degree of instability and high
moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable
of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 16:14:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071613
SWODY1
SPC AC 071612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are
expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South
Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening. Isolated
damaging wind potential will exist over the northern and central
Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts
appear possible this afternoon over the central Gulf Coast states.

...ND...
A fast-moving shortwave trough currently over WY/MT will track
northeastward into the Dakotas this afternoon. Strong
heating/mixing in southwest ND will lead to a sharpening dryline
across central ND by mid/late afternoon. This will be the likely
focus for thunderstorm development after 22z. Forecast soundings in
the warm-sector east of the dryline suggest sufficient low-level and
deep-layer shear for supercell storm-modes. Large hail and perhaps a
tornado or two are possible in the most intense storms. This
activity will spread eastward into northeast ND this evening before
weakening.

...CO/KS/NE/SD...
A weak surface boundary is present today from northeast CO into
central NE. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form over the
mountains of central CO, with development spreading eastward along
the boundary through the afternoon. Strong heating and a deeply
mixed boundary-layer will promote intense downdrafts in the
strongest cores. By early evening, activity may spread into
southeast SD where greater low-level moisture and CAPE will pose a
risk of a few more intense storms capable of hail or even a tornado.
Recent model solutions have been backing off on this SD scenario,
but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

...LA/MS/AL...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the central Gulf coast
region today, with full sunshine and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s.
Steering flow is weak, but high CAPE and ample moisture suggest a
risk of occasional intense downdrafts in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Thornton.. 09/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 20:01:14 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are
expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South
Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening. Isolated
damaging wind potential will exist over the northern and central
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind
gusts remain possible this afternoon over the central Gulf Coast
states.

...20Z Update...
The MRGL Risk/5-percent wind area was expanded slightly
west-southwestward in parts of eastern MT. Here, a small
north/south-oriented line segment is tracking eastward into an
increasingly warm PBL. This activity will continue to pose a risk of
a few severe wind gusts this afternoon. See MCD #2264 for more
details. Elsewhere, very minimal changes were made with this update.

..Weinman.. 09/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026/

...ND...
A fast-moving shortwave trough currently over WY/MT will track
northeastward into the Dakotas this afternoon. Strong
heating/mixing in southwest ND will lead to a sharpening dryline
across central ND by mid/late afternoon. This will be the likely
focus for thunderstorm development after 22z. Forecast soundings in
the warm-sector east of the dryline suggest sufficient low-level and
deep-layer shear for supercell storm-modes. Large hail and perhaps a
tornado or two are possible in the most intense storms. This
activity will spread eastward into northeast ND this evening before
weakening.

...CO/KS/NE/SD...
A weak surface boundary is present today from northeast CO into
central NE. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form over the
mountains of central CO, with development spreading eastward along
the boundary through the afternoon. Strong heating and a deeply
mixed boundary-layer will promote intense downdrafts in the
strongest cores. By early evening, activity may spread into
southeast SD where greater low-level moisture and CAPE will pose a
risk of a few more intense storms capable of hail or even a tornado.
Recent model solutions have been backing off on this SD scenario,
but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

...LA/MS/AL...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the central Gulf coast
region today, with full sunshine and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s.
Steering flow is weak, but high CAPE and ample moisture suggest a
risk of occasional intense downdrafts in the strongest storms.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 01:00:18 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080059
SWODY1
SPC AC 080058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and perhaps a tornado or two will continue over central North Dakota
and southeast South Dakota into tonight. More isolated occurrences
of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible this evening
over the central High Plains.

...Northern Plains...

Two separate severe thunderstorm regimes have evolved late this
afternoon into evening. The first is over northwest into central ND,
where widely scattered storms --including a supercell-- are ongoing
ahead of a cold front pushing through western ND. The 00Z BIS
sounding showed modestly steep low-level lapse rates and a moist
boundary layer with MLCAPE CAPE of around 3000 J/kg. The
corresponding wind profile was quite supportive of updraft rotation
with effective SRH of around 300 m2/s2 and 60 kt of effective bulk
shear, suggesting the supercell north of BIS will remain capable of
large hail and a tornado or two for the next hour or two.
Thereafter, increasing convective inhibition may result in the
gradual weakening of the storms with a decreasing severe weather
threat.

For additional near-term guidance on that regime, see recently
issued MCD #2268.

The second thunderstorm regime is evolving across portions of
northeast NE into southeast SD, near the intersection of a
differential heating zone/outflow boundary and a pre-frontal trough.
The boundary layer to the north of the baroclinic zone over
southeast SD is slightly cooler with some convective inhibition
noted in latest objective analysis fields. However, the presence of
MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg, which coincides with 35-40 kt of
deep-layer shear is supportive of supercells with the primary hazard
being large hail, potentially in excess of two inches. The nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet is resulting in enlarging
low-level hodographs with effective SRH of 300-400+ m2/s2, per
objective analysis. A tornado recently occurred with the ongoing
storms near the NE-SD border with an additional tornado or two
remaining possible this evening before convective inhibition
increases further.

..Mead.. 09/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 05:40:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080539
SWODY1
SPC AC 080538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts
appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska Tuesday
afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of severe winds and
large hail may occur from portions of the upper Midwest into the
central Plains.

...Synopsis...

An intense upper low moving into southern SK late this evening will
continue northeast through central MB into northern ON ahead of a
secondary short-wave trough tracking from the northern Rockies into
the northern Plains. A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will
be maintained between those features from the northern High Plains
into the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will
advance through the eastern Dakotas and upper MS Valley with the
trailing extension of the boundary moving more slowly southeast
through the mid-MO Valley and central High Plains.

...Central Plains into the upper Midwest...

Clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday
from portions of the mid-MO Valley into the upper Midwest within a
zone of warm advection and moisture transport along a nocturnal
low-level jet (LLJ). Showers and storms may linger through the
morning across parts of WI and the U.P. of MI, limiting the degree
of air mass destabilization and associated severe weather risk
during the afternoon. Farther to the southwest from IA through
eastern and southern NE into northern KS, stronger daytime heating
on the southern fringe of lingering mid/high-level cloudiness will
contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer, featuring steep low-level
lapse rates. When combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s
to low/mid 70s F, the air mass is expected to become moderately to
strongly unstable by late afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

In the absence of appreciable height falls/large-scale forcing for
ascent, convergence along the front and any preceding confluence
zones/outflow boundaries is expected to foster a gradual increase in
storm coverage and intensity by mid to late afternoon amidst the
destabilizing air mass. The strongest deep-layer shear is expected
to be displaced to the north of the effective warm sector with
around 30-35 kt forecast along the frontal zone. A largely parallel shear-vector orientation with the front suggests that initial storms
should grow upscale into line segments or a broken band with an
associated risk for severe wind gusts from mid afternoon through
evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are
possible; however, poor mid-level lapse are expected to limit the
overall threat. The 00Z models do indicate some LLJ enhancement over
central IA by late afternoon into evening, resulting in a corridor
of stronger low-level shear. While a brief tornado or two are
possible, a more robust threat is expected to be limited by largely outflow-dominant storms.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 12:33:14 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081233
SWODY1
SPC AC 081231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts
appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska Tuesday
afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of severe winds and
large hail may occur from portions of the upper Midwest into the
central Plains.

...Central Plains into the upper Midwest...
An extensive low-level jet is currently in place from the southern
High Plains through the Upper Midwest. Warm-air advection associated
with this feature is contributing to showers and thunderstorms from
eastern NE through WI and into western Upper MI. This activity is
forecast to gradually shift northeastward this morning while the
embedded storms also gradually diminish in strength. These showers
and thunderstorms, and associated warm low to mid-level
temperatures, are expected to limit destabilization across much of
WI and Upper MI.

Some moderate buoyancy is possible by the early afternoon across MN,
just ahead of a cold front pushing eastward into the region.
Lingering convective inhibition will likely limit convective
initiation, and considerable uncertainty exists regarding
thunderstorm coverage. This uncertainty precludes introducing any
severe probabilities, but the combination of moderate buoyancy and
strong deep-layer shear over the region would support some severe
potential with any updrafts that persist and mature.

Farther south and west (i.e. from IA through eastern/southern NE
into northern KS), stronger daytime heating will contribute to a
well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by steep low-level lapse
rates and dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s F. This air mass is
expected to become moderately to strongly unstable by late afternoon
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is expected
as the southeastward-progressing cold front interacts with this
destabilized and buoyant airmass. The stronger vertical shear will
be displaced north/northeast of the greater buoyancy, but 30 to 35
kt of effective bulk shear is still sufficient for some storm
organization. A largely parallel shear-vector orientation with the
front suggests that initial storms should grow upscale quickly into
line segments or broken bands, with some tendency for undercutting
as well. Even so, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible from
mid afternoon through evening. The low-level jet will increase again
from western KS through central IA this evening resulting in a
corridor of stronger low-level shear. This low-level shear will
support a low-probability tornado risk, but a more robust threat is
expected to be limited by largely outflow-dominant and/or elevated
storms.

...CO Plains into western KS...
Thunderstorm development appears likely across the higher terrain of
central CO as the mid-level flow veers more westerly during the late
afternoon. Moist post-frontal northerly low-level flow is expected
across the CO Plains and western KS this evening, which could result
in enough buoyancy to maintain modest intensity as the central CO
storms progress eastward. High-based storm character and prevailing
steep low-level lapse rates may result in a few stronger gusts as
this cluster moves eastward into western KS.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 16:17:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081617
SWODY1
SPC AC 081615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear
possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska this afternoon
and evening.

...NE/IA...
A broad upper ridge remains over much of the central/southern US,
with moderately strong westerly flow over the northern tier of
states. A baroclinic zone extends across southern NE into central
IA. This feature will be sharpened by differential heating through
the day, and will be the focus for afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development. The strongest cells will be near a 20-30
knot southwesterly low-level jet where warm advection and lift will
aid in convective initiation. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
promote supercell and eventual bowing structures, with damaging
winds be the main concern. Most CAM solutions suggest the majority
of convection will be just north of the surface boundary, which may
limit the overall severe threat. Also, weak mid-level lapse rates
and warm temperatures aloft will tend to diminish the hail risk.

...CO/KS...
Farther southwest, hot surface conditions will result in a deeply
mixed boundary layer. Scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form from eastern CO into
western/central KS, with gusty and occasionally damaging wind gusts
possible.

..Hart/Guyer.. 09/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 19:49:14 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081949
SWODY1
SPC AC 081947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear
possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska this afternoon
and evening.

...20Z Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track and no changes are needed.

..Wendt.. 09/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026/

...NE/IA...
A broad upper ridge remains over much of the central/southern US,
with moderately strong westerly flow over the northern tier of
states. A baroclinic zone extends across southern NE into central
IA. This feature will be sharpened by differential heating through
the day, and will be the focus for afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development. The strongest cells will be near a 20-30
knot southwesterly low-level jet where warm advection and lift will
aid in convective initiation. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
promote supercell and eventual bowing structures, with damaging
winds be the main concern. Most CAM solutions suggest the majority
of convection will be just north of the surface boundary, which may
limit the overall severe threat. Also, weak mid-level lapse rates
and warm temperatures aloft will tend to diminish the hail risk.

...CO/KS...
Farther southwest, hot surface conditions will result in a deeply
mixed boundary layer. Scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form from eastern CO into
western/central KS, with gusty and occasionally damaging wind gusts
possible.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 00:38:18 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090038
SWODY1
SPC AC 090036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear
possible across portions of Iowa this evening.

...Discussion...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues across the surface
boundary extending from portions of central/southern Iowa into
southern Nebraska and northern/western Kansas. A more organized
cluster is ongoing across portions of south-central Iowa. This
cluster will continue to pose a wind threat for the next couple of
hours before eventually moving southeast into less favorable air
across southeastern Iowa/western Illinois. Additional convection
will evolve overnight with the increasing low-level jet across
central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. This
will pose at least some potential for small hail and strong to
severe wind.

Across Colorado, scattered convection is ongoing near the foothills
of the Front Range. Time lagged HRRR/RRFS guidance continues to
suggest that this evolves into a cluster with potential for strong
to severe wind to continue downstream this evening. Though moisture
is limited, very warm surface temperatures and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates are supporting at least marginally unstable
conditions downstream.

..Thornton.. 09/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 05:43:46 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090543
SWODY1
SPC AC 090541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more
organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to
western New York.

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the broad
upper-level trough across Ontario, overspreading the Great Lakes
into Upstate New York and Quebec. A cold front will extend from a
deep surface low across northern Ontario south through the Upper
Midwest and into the central High Plains. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected near the surface trough
across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and along the front from
the Midwest to the central High Plains.

...Eastern Ohio into western New York...
Across the eastern Ohio Valley into portions of the Northeast,
strengthening mid-level flow will overspread the region with
thunderstorms developing along the cold front and pre-frontal
surface trough. Upper 60s to 70s dew points and filtered daytime
heating will yield moderate instability amid ample deep layer shear
for organization. Mode will likely be a mix of multi-cell clusters
and transient supercells, with potential for damaging wind.
Generally weak lapse rate profiles and quick mode transition to
clusters/linear segments should limit hail and tornado potential.
Nonetheless, as the low-level jet increases into the afternoon and
clockwise curvature increases in hodographs a tornado may be
possible.

...Ohio Valley to the Midwest and the central Plains...
Morning convection will be likely across much of the
Midwest/Mid-Missouri Valley into the northwestern Ohio Valley.
Remnant shower activity/cloud cover will likely limit severe
potential with northern extent. Nonetheless, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the
afternoon along the front and remnant outflow from the eastern Ohio
Valley through portions of the Midwest and into the central Plains.
Flow will be fairly weak across the central Plains, with generally a
marginal damaging wind threat with multi-cell clusters as daytime
heating steepens low-level lapse rates amid deeply mixed profiles.
Slightly better flow aloft may favor a more focused cluster across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 09/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 12:43:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091243
SWODY1
SPC AC 091241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OHIO
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today. A more organized
severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New
York.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery show broad upper troughing from the
Pacific Northwest/British Columbia through the Upper Great Lakes and
Ontario. Several shortwave troughs are embedded within this larger
upper troughing, including one moving into northern MN and another
farther north across far northwestern Ontario. A belt of moderate to
strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow extends between the
base of these two waves. Expectation is the southern wave to move
quickly eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario,
accompanied by mid-level jet max.

Surface analysis places a occluded low over far northwestern
Ontario, with a cold front extending southward into western Upper MI
and then back southwestward through central NE. An outflow-augmented pre-frontal trough precedes this front, extending from a low in
southwest Lower MI to another low over northeast KS to another over
far southwest KS/far southeast CO. Both the cold front and
pre-frontal trough are expected to progress modestly
southward/southeastward today. Two corridors of relatively higher
thunderstorm coverage are anticipated this afternoon/evening, one
from eastern OH into western PA/western NY and the other farther
southwest from the Lower MO Valley into the TX/OK Panhandles.

...Central Ohio into western New York...
Moist low-levels are already in place from the OH Valley into
western PA and NY, with recent surface analysis sampling upper 60s
dewpoints in central OH decreasing to the low/mid 60s across western
PA and western NY. This moist airmass is expected to destabilize
amid modest low-level moisture advection and filtered insolation,
ahead of a convectively augmented vorticity maximum. With the cold
front still well to the northwest, this vorticity maximum will be
the primary impetus for thunderstorm development, augmenting the
weak low-level confluence along the weak pre-frontal trough. A
predominately linear/clustered storm mode is anticipated, but
strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear from
30 to 40 kt, which could support some more persist/organized line
segments. Damaging gusts are the primary risk with any of these more
organized segments. Low-level hodographs do show some notable
curative, particularly from western PA into western NY after 00Z,
amid a strengthening low-level jet. As such, there is a
low-probability tornado risk is these areas.

...Lower OH and MO Valleys into the TX/OK Panhandles...
Thunderstorm coverage is gradually expected to increase across the
region this afternoon and evening, beginning near a surface low move
across the Lower MO Valley before expanding back southwestward along
the southward-progressing front. The stronger vertical shear will be
displace north of the front, and a largely disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm mode is anticipated. Slightly better flow
aloft may favor a more focused cluster across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee. Steep low-level lapse rates
and high cloud bases could support strong gusts from the Lower MO
Valley into the TX/OK Panhandles.

...Southern AZ...
Afternoon thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain near
the southern AZ/NM border. There is some potential this activity
progresses westward into the lower elevations of southern AZ.
However, upper ridging will be centered over this region and
vertical shear will be weak, resulting in slow storm motion and
disorganized, outflow-dominant structures. A few strong gusts could
result from any more persistent updrafts.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 12:34:16 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051234
SWODY1
SPC AC 051232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
Progressive northwesterly flow aloft will continue to reside over
the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada, with a prominent upper
trough shifting eastward over Quebec. Surface high pressure and
large-scale subsidence will generally prevail east of the
Mississippi River, while surface troughing becomes established
across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture.

Along the Gulf Coast and Florida, some thunderstorms are expected
near/south of a southward-shifting frontal boundary. Isolated
low-topped thunderstorms may occur today from northern New York into
northern New England as a cold front shifts eastward. A few
convectively enhanced wind gusts might even occur across this region
as lapse rates diurnally steepen.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 16:31:12 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 051630
SWODY1
SPC AC 051628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rather strong west-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will overspread
the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic today as an upper trough/low
over Quebec moves eastward through the period. While locally gusty
winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts of New
England, limited low-level moisture and related meager instability
will likely hinder an organized severe wind threat.

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will persist today over
portions of the Southeast as a slow-moving front remains draped from
the northern Gulf into southern GA/northern FL. A moist airmass is
in place south of this boundary, but weak low/mid-level winds, poor
lapse rates aloft, and effective bulk shear less than 30 kt will
hamper updraft organization and severe potential.

Elsewhere, isolated convection may continue today across parts of
the Sierra into Great Basin, and over parts of the southern/central
Rockies, as a weak upper trough develops eastward. Elevated
thunderstorms may also occur late this afternoon through tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest. For all these regions, weak
instability will greatly limit the risk for severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 10/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 04:34:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 060434
SWODY1
SPC AC 060432

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis...
A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will encompass most of the
CONUS as a 500 mb jet maximum overspreads the northern Plains from
the central Canadian provinces today. A surface trough will progress
across the MS Valley in tandem with the mid-level speed maximum,
with surface high pressure remaining in place east of the
Appalachians and West of the Rockies. A relatively cool and stable
airmass will overspread most of the CONUS and limit thunderstorm
potential over most areas. The main exception will be the FL
Peninsula, where 70s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of a
diffuse baroclinic boundary, promoting enough buoyancy (albeit
marginal) to support scattered thunderstorm potential. Colder
temperatures aloft accompanying subtle impulses across the eastern
Great Basin/Central Rockies and the northern Great Lakes will
encourage a few lightning flashes in these regions as well.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
A weak surface low is poised to develop along portions of the
eastern Gulf and encourage locally backed surface winds across the
central FL Peninsula. Strengthening/veering flow with height will
yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, but with marginal,
thin CAPE profiles given very poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse
rates. A few storms may exhibit brief periods of transient low-level
rotation offshore, but the threat for persistent, rotating updrafts
reaching the shoreline appear too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 00:50:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 290050
SWODY1
SPC AC 290048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe storms remain possible this
evening across parts of the western/central Dakotas and also the
central High Plains.

...Parts of the Dakotas into the central High Plains...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from
eastern ND into western SD. While low/midlevel lapse rates are
generally weak, relatively rich low-level moisture is supporting
MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, with 25-35 kt of effective shear
sufficient for occasional storm organization. Isolated hail and
strong to severe gusts cannot be ruled out this evening, though a
weakening trend is expected later tonight as convection becomes
increasingly elevated with time.

Farther south, isolated strong storms are ongoing this evening
across parts of northwest NE, and also near the CO/KS border.
Occasional supercell structures will be possible through dusk,
though modest lapse rates and buoyancy may tend to limit the
magnitude of the severe threat. See MCD 2332 for more information
regarding the short-term threat in this area.

..Dean.. 09/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 05:37:26 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 290537
SWODY1
SPC AC 290535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New
Mexico into west Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant trough are forecast to move
across the Desert Southwest through the period. In response to the
approaching deep trough, Hurricane Polo is forecast to move from the
Gulf of California into Sonora this morning. While the tropical
cyclone is forecast to weaken over the mountainous terrain of
northern Mexico later today, phasing of the midlevel remnant of Polo
with the approaching deep mid/upper-level trough will result in a
consolidating surface low that is forecast to move across eastern NM
and west TX through the evening.

...Southern/eastern NM into west TX...
Widespread convection is expected this afternoon into tonight from southern/eastern NM into west TX, as increasing large-scale ascent
overspreads a very moist environment. The influence of the remnant
tropical system will result in poor midlevel lapse rates, but
increasing deep-layer flow/shear and enlarging low-level hodographs
will favor some storm organization. The widespread storm coverage
will result in a tendency toward complex or linear storm modes with
time, though occasional supercells will also be possible. The weak
lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit the magnitude
of severe potential, but a localized tornado and severe-gust threat
could accompany any organized storm structures this afternoon and
evening.

...Arizona...
Widespread convection is expected across parts of AZ this morning
into the afternoon, in association with the primary mid/upper-level
low. Some enhancement to deep-layer shear and low-level SRH is
expected to accompany this system, but extensive cloudiness and
precipitation will inhibit diurnal heating and destabilization. At
this time, organized severe potential appears relatively low, but
locally gusty winds and transient rotation may occur with the
strongest convective elements. Trends will continue to monitored
regarding potential for pockets of locally greater destabilization
through the day.

..Dean/Weinman.. 09/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 12:53:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 291253
SWODY1
SPC AC 291251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a tornado or
two could occur this afternoon into tonight from southern and
eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and across southeast Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant trough will move across the
Desert Southwest through the period. In response to the approaching
deep trough, Hurricane Polo is forecast to move from the Gulf of
California into Sonora this morning. While the tropical cyclone is
forecast to weaken over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico
later today, a phasing of the mid-level remnants of Polo with the
approaching deep mid/upper-level trough will result in a
consolidating surface low that is forecast to deepen and move across
eastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight.

...Southern/eastern New Mexico to west Texas...
Widespread convection is ongoing and expected to generally continue
into this afternoon and tonight from southern/eastern New Mexico to
west Texas, as increasing large-scale ascent overspreads a very
moist environment. The influence of the remnant tropical system will
result in poor mid-level lapse rates, but increasing deep-layer
flow/shear and enlarging low-level hodographs will favor some storm organization, especially later this afternoon and evening. The
widespread storm coverage will result in a tendency toward complex
or linear storm modes with time, though a few/episodic supercells
will also be possible. The weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are
expected to limit the overall magnitude of severe potential, but a
localized tornado and severe-gust threat could accompany any
organized storm structures, particularly this afternoon and evening,
influenced by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.

...Southern Arizona...
A moist environment resides in close proximity to the Southwest
Deserts mid/upper-level low, with a belt of very strong deep-layer
winds sampled in available 12z upper-air data and regional WSR-88D
VWPs. Scattered thunderstorms are common this morning, and while
this convection/related cloud cover will generally hinder overall destabilization, modest diurnal heating will probably lead to some
convective intensification during the day. The strong nature of the
wind profiles could support a few at least weak/transient
supercells, and potentially more organized convective bands later
today, with at least some potential for strong thunderstorm winds
and mostly sub-severe hail.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 12:46:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061246
SWODY1
SPC AC 061245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Showers/some thunderstorms are common early today near the residual
front from the northern Gulf to the north-central Florida Peninsula.
A weak surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop over the
northeast Gulf today, with some guidance advertising an increase in low/mid-tropospheric flow late today into tonight, as early day wind
profiles are otherwise weak (reference 12z observed sounding from
Tampa Bay). The more shear-optimistic guidance scenarios, via strengthening/veering flow with height, suggest wind profiles could
trend conducive to weak/transient supercells. That said,
destabilization across the Peninsula near the front is questionable
with the expected persistence of marginal, thin CAPE profiles and
poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit brief/transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for
persistent, rotating updrafts reaching near-shore/inland areas later
today into tonight currently appears low.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 16:04:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061604
SWODY1
SPC AC 061602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.

Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.

..Smith/Karstens.. 10/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 19:58:34 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 061958
SWODY1
SPC AC 061956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A Marginal Risk for a brief waterspout/tornado is forecast near the
coast of the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made to the outlook with this update. For
information on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2346.

..Weinman.. 10/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026/

...Central Florida Peninsula...
Radar mosaic shows a discontinuous cluster of showers/thunderstorms
over the northeast Gulf associated with a weak surface low/frontal
wave along a frontal zone draped across the central part of the FL
Peninsula. Model guidance continues to show a modest enlargement of
the hodograph through the late afternoon and continuing into
tonight. Although tropospheric lapse rates will remain poor,
sufficient heating in areas void of thicker clouds/rain will lead to
weak destabilization across the central part of the Peninsula, as
well as over the warm shelf waters west of Tampa Bay (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE). Radar observations earlier this morning showed a few
brief/transient supercell structures. Expecting an episodic
continuation of these convective characteristics to eventually
migrate closer to the immediate coast this afternoon and perhaps
linger into late tonight. As a result, a brief waterspout/tornado
will be possible near the coast of the west-central portion of the
Peninsula.

Elsewhere, severe weather is not forecast.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 00:59:14 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070058
SWODY1
SPC AC 070056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A northwesterly upper flow regime continues across the CONUS as a
mid-level jet overspreads the northern Plains from the south-central
Canadian provinces. Surface high pressure remains in place east of
the MS River and west of the Rockies, with subsidence limiting
thunderstorm development over much of the CONUS. Isolated
thunderstorm development is still possible over portions of the FL
Peninsula. Earlier, transient rotating storms attempted to reach the
western peninsula shoreline, but weakened when approaching land.
With nocturnal cooling, and the weak surface low expected to meander
over the eastern Gulf, the current thinking is that thunderstorms
should only decrease in number and intensity through the night.
While a brief, land-falling waterspout cannot be ruled out, the
tornado threat appears low enough for the removal of severe
probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 10/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 04:47:30 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 070447
SWODY1
SPC AC 070445

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper
ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today.
This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the
Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the
remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to
the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder
temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best
chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone
ahead of a weak surface low over central FL.

...Western FL Peninsula Coastline...
Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over
the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by
70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating, thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse
rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level
moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles.
Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering
may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated
transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist
offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will
reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will
be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be
added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding
onshore severe potential become clearer.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 12:45:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071245
SWODY1
SPC AC 071243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.

...West-central Florida Peninsula...
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
which will tend to limit storm vigor.

Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 14:02:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071245
SWODY1
SPC AC 071243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.

...West-central Florida Peninsula...
A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
which will tend to limit storm vigor.

Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 16:22:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071622
SWODY1
SPC AC 071620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 19:43:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 071943
SWODY1
SPC AC 071941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were needed with this update. Within the exit region of a
robust midlevel jet overspreading the Midwest, a couple of strong
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes
this afternoon, and over the Lower Great Lakes this evening/tonight.
While enhanced low/midlevel flow accompanying the jet and steep
lapse rates could aid in a few strong wind gusts (potentially 40-50
mph) across both areas, limited buoyancy and increasing low-level
static stability over the Lower Great Lakes should limit the overall
severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/

...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 01:00:38 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080100
SWODY1
SPC AC 080058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. this evening and
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is in place over the northeastern
third of the nation, with west-northwesterly flow located over the
remainder of the U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in
along the Gulf Coast, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this evening and tonight, mainly across the Florida Peninsula.
Scattered storms will also be possible ahead of a shortwave trough
in the Northeast, and across parts of the Four Corners region. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through
daybreak on Thursday.

..Broyles.. 10/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 05:55:10 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 080554
SWODY1
SPC AC 080552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the
upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast, as west-northwesterly
flow aloft remains over most of the remainder of the nation. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly from
southeastern Louisiana eastward to Florida. Additional storms may
develop in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
Scattered storms will also be possible in Iowa and from northern New
York into northern New England. No severe threat is expected today
or tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 12:48:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081248
SWODY1
SPC AC 081246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the middle Florida
Peninsula today and/or across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle
Missouri Valley tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
A semi-persistent general pattern continues with storms focusing
along a convectively reinforced front from the eastern Gulf across
the middle part of the Peninsula. While not a high-confidence
scenario, a few subtleties may imply a bit more near-shore supercell
and waterspout/brief tornado potential as compared to yesterday.

The latest WSR-88D VWP data from KTBW samples weak
lower-tropospheric winds but with moderate directional turning and a
speed increase above 3km AGL, netting around 25-30 kt effective
shear. This is consistent with a modest 00z-to-12z increase in winds
aloft noted in Tampa Bay observed soundings, with a mid-level
cooling trend also noted. Winds aloft may further trend a bit upward
this afternoon per various guidance, potentially supporting a few organized/sustained storms capable of at least weak/transient
rotation, especially in vicinity of the surface front. It also
appears that clouds are not quite as prevalent early today within
the nearby warm sector inland, which could modestly boost parcel
accelerations within a very moist environment, characterized by
73-75F surface dewpoints. The overall scenario could seemingly
support some potential for near-shore waterspouts or possibly even a
brief tornado inland near the front.

...Iowa/middle Missouri Valley tonight...
Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms should develop
tonight as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase to the
northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. Source region
moisture will be modest, but sufficient mid-level moistening will
support thunderstorm potential on the edge of the Great Plains
elevated mixed layer. While some elevated moisture/buoyancy guidance
depictions may be a bit too aggressive (such as the NAM), a general
increase in guidance trends lends credence to the possibility that
750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE may materialize. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of hail possible.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 04:49:54 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 020449
SWODY1
SPC AC 020448

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper trough will develop eastward across the Northeast today,
bringing some modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow across
the region ahead of a surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms
are likely to be ongoing along the length of the front this morning
from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-South. Low-level warm advection
ahead of the eastward advancing font and band of convection will
result in persistent cloudiness across the warm sector.
Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor. As a
result, instability is expected to remain modest (500-750 MLCAPE)
despite 60s F dewpoints. Deep-layer flow will largely remain
parallel to the surface boundary, and stronger flow will lift
northeast with time. If pockets of stronger heating can occur, a few
strong wind gusts are possible during the afternoon from northern VA
into southern New England. However, overall severe potential appears
limited.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 12:38:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 021238
SWODY1
SPC AC 021236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic States/Cumberland Plateau...
A progressive stream of westerlies will continue to reside over the
northern third of the CONUS through tonight. An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented cold front will continue
east-southeastward, reaching the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by
this evening, while otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and
lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will
accompany the front, while also being common across coastal areas of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

As the cold front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva later
this evening, semi-strong wind profiles (35+ kt effective shear)
will exist regionally, and to a lesser extent southwestward toward
the Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms
with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near/ahead of the
front in these regions provided sufficient insolation/modest
destabilization. However, moist-profile/subsidence-related poor
lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 16:24:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 021624
SWODY1
SPC AC 021622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 10/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 19:55:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 021955
SWODY1
SPC AC 021954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the previous outlook. See the discussion
below for more details.

..Karstens/Thornton.. 10/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 00:46:32 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 030046
SWODY1
SPC AC 030044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through the night.

... 01 UTC Update ...

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm will continue along and
southeast of a slow moving frontal zone draped from the southern
Plains northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. Instability is rather
limited to the south of this front owing to poor lapse-rates, and
vertical shear is weak. Thus, while the occasional thunderstorm may
occur, the severe potential is low.

Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes may occur toward sunrise
across the north-central US. Here, a short-wave trough moving
through the stronger mid-level flow will overhead, bringing with it
modest large-scale ascent. Temperatures in the 40Fs to low 50Fs with
dewpoints in the 40Fs should limit instability and the overall
potential for more widespread thunderstorm coverage.

..Marsh.. 10/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 16:38:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081625
SWODY1
SPC AC 081623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion
of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a cloud shield generally near and
north of a residual frontal zone draped across the central portion
of the FL Peninsula. Filtered sunshine generally south of the I-4
corridor will contribute to weak destabilization in the presence of
a tropical airmass characterized by mid-upper 70s deg F surface
dewpoints. Model forecast soundings show moderate effective shear
(25-30 kt) and a veering wind profile through a deep layer. Given
the very moist boundary layer coupled with proximity to the frontal
zone and shear supporting potentially transient weak rotation, a
brief tornado or waterspout is possible.

...Iowa...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast
tonight in tandem with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing as warm
advection and isentropic ascent increase to the northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.

..Smith/Jirak.. 10/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 20:04:12 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 081933
SWODY1
SPC AC 081932

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion
of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026/

...Florida Peninsula...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a cloud shield generally near and
north of a residual frontal zone draped across the central portion
of the FL Peninsula. Filtered sunshine generally south of the I-4
corridor will contribute to weak destabilization in the presence of
a tropical airmass characterized by mid-upper 70s deg F surface
dewpoints. Model forecast soundings show moderate effective shear
(25-30 kt) and a veering wind profile through a deep layer. Given
the very moist boundary layer coupled with proximity to the frontal
zone and shear supporting potentially transient weak rotation, a
brief tornado or waterspout is possible.

...Iowa...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast
tonight in tandem with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing as warm
advection and isentropic ascent increase to the northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 06:08:30 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090100
SWODY1
SPC AC 090058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the west-central
part of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of Iowa tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a plume of mid-level moisture
associated with Hurricane Isaias from the central Gulf of America
northeastward across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated
with Isaias will move inland across the Florida Peninsula this
evening into tonight. Over the southern half of Florida, the RAP
shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The most favorable zone
for rotating storms will be along the northern edge of the stronger
instability near and to the southeast of Tampa Bay. RAP forecast
soundings in the area have veering winds with height in the lowest 3
km with enough low-level shear for an isolated tornado threat.

...Iowa...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow is located over the central
and northern U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving
through South Dakota. Lift will be maximized in the mid Missouri
Valley ahead of this feature, along the far eastern edge of a
central Plains low-level speed max. As low-level flow increases this
evening, elevated storms will continue to develop over western and
central Iowa. RAP forecast soundings in west-central Iowa show a
sharp temperature inversion at low-levels, with steep lapse rates
above 900 mb. The resulting MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range. This combined with about 50 knots of effective
shear should be enough for an isolated hail threat.

..Broyles.. 10/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:39:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 090539
SWODY1
SPC AC 090537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential
to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period
from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall
near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias
approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread
across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will
develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is
forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE
likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the
coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east
of Isaias' center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which
will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes.
The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period
as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern
Alabama and southwest Georgia.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:43:48 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091615
SWODY1
SPC AC 091613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

..Jirak/Smith.. 10/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 19:38:30 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091258
SWODY1
SPC AC 091257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. Such forecasts
call for additional strengthening of Isaias today as it continues
generally north-northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle/far
southern Alabama.

As this scenario unfolds, eastern-peripheral rainbands will spread
northward, potentially as far east as the near-coastal western
Peninsula today, and more so toward the Florida coastal bend and
eventually broader parts of the Florida Panhandle, far southern
Alabama and southern Georgia by late today into tonight. This will
occur as inland continental trajectories are displaced/overcome by a northward-advancing Isaias and eastward-extending maritime warm
front. Destabilization will tend to be maximized in coastal areas on
its eastern periphery, all while low-level winds/SRH significantly
strengthen over time. Rotating storms will have the potential to
produce tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle/nearby
northern Florida into southeast Alabama and far southern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 19:58:44 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 091958
SWODY1
SPC AC 091956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
continue increasing through the remainder of the afternoon and
continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD
#2349 and Tornado Watch #677.

..Weinman.. 10/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026/

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 12:42:00 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Progressive westerlies will prevail over the northern half of the
CONUS through tonight, highlighted by fairly substantial shortwave
trough amplification over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As
a cold front shifts eastward across these regions, a modest increase
in moisture, steepening lapse rates and increasing forcing for
ascent will contribute to the potential for isolated thunderstorms,
such as have been ongoing across the Dakotas in the pre-dawn hours.
It is plausible that some stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts
could occur this afternoon, but severe potential is expected to
remain virtually nil.

Across the Southeast/Deep South, a slow-moving front extending from
the Carolinas southwestward toward the coastal plain of Texas will
remain a focus for thunderstorm development through the period.
Although ample moisture will support thunderstorms along and south
of the front, weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates within the
moist thermodynamic environment should considerably limit the
potential for organized severe convection.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 13:19:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 031318
SWODY1
SPC AC 031316

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Progressive westerlies will prevail over the northern half of the
CONUS through tonight, highlighted by fairly substantial shortwave
trough amplification over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As
a cold front shifts eastward across these regions, a modest increase
in moisture, steepening lapse rates and increasing forcing for
ascent will contribute to the potential for isolated thunderstorms,
such as have been ongoing across the Dakotas in the pre-dawn hours.
It is plausible that some stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts
could occur this afternoon, but severe potential is expected to
remain virtually nil.

Across the Southeast/Deep South, a slow-moving front extending from
the Carolinas southwestward toward the coastal plain of Texas will
remain a focus for thunderstorm development through the period.
Although ample moisture will support thunderstorms along and south
of the front, weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates within the
moist thermodynamic environment should considerably limit the
potential for organized severe convection.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 16:03:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 031602
SWODY1
SPC AC 031600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across
the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers
and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will
spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite
limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of
weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with
this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the
overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the
minimal instability forecast.

A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX
into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus
for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist
airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates
aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for
organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater
concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf
Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of
Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this
region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain
weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be
disorganized.

..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 19:49:08 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 031948
SWODY1
SPC AC 031946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to thunder to account for recent
trends. Please see previous discussion below.

..Thornton.. 10/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across
the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers
and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will
spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite
limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of
weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with
this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the
overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the
minimal instability forecast.

A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX
into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus
for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist
airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates
aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for
organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater
concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf
Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of
Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this
region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain
weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be
disorganized.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 00:38:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 040038
SWODY1
SPC AC 040036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

... 01Z ...

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm will be possible this
evening along and south of a surface front stretched from the
Carolinas southwest toward the upper-Gulf coast of Texas. Limited
instability should preclude any severe potential.

Overnight a secondary cold front will move south into the southern
Plains. Cool surface temperatures and moist vertical profiles will
limit overall instability, but enough elevated instability may
develop to support an occasional thunderstorm.

The severe potential will remain low through the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 10/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 01:00:28 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 100100
SWODY1
SPC AC 100058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will move inland this
evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with
a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...DISCUSSION...
The center of Hurricane Isaias is currently near the Florida coast.
The primary band of rainfall is north of the Isaias' center over the
western Florida Panhandle. A second rainband extends from the
eastern Florida Panhandle southward along the coast of the
northwestern Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms will continue to form
within these rainbands and move northward over land this evening.
The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle have strong
low-level shear profiles with large looped hodographs. This will
support the development of rotating storms with tornado potential,
mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is
expected to continue through this evening into overnight period,
with the threat gradually moving northward into southeast Alabama
and southwestern Georgia.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 05:56:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 100556
SWODY1
SPC AC 100554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the
Desert Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface
temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate
instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability
this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to
40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The
tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the
eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.

...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja
California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm
Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will
increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and
southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This
combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift
associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered
thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a
mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the
evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer
shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can
develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 12:50:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 101250
SWODY1
SPC AC 101248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from eastern Georgia into western/southern South Carolina. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert
Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
Isaias underwent a rapid transition to a post-tropical cyclone after
landfall Friday evening, with a notable baroclinic zone now in place
throughout its eastern periphery. The low-level center of this
system is currently over southeast AL, with a warm front extending east-northeastward from this center across central GA, central SC,
and eastern NC. General expectation is for this former tropical
cyclone to spend the first half of the period completing its
transition to a mid-latitude cyclone over MS/AL before then
progressing northeastward across the TN Valley later tonight. The
surface low is expected to drift northeastward as the system
matures, centering over northern AL by 00Z. As it does, its warm
sector, which is characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints, will
expand northwestward into more of GA and the Carolinas. This
increase in low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) despite widespread cloudiness and limited
heating. Low-level confluence within the warm sector, augmented by
modest but persistent large-scale ascent, is expected to support
thunderstorm development throughout the period, particularly during
the afternoon.

The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced west of the
greater low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Even so,
southeasterly low-level flow veering to southerly in the mid/upper
levels will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for
occasional organization/intensification of the predominantly
multicellular structures. Several brief tornadoes could result
within any of these more organized storms. Convectively augmented
damaging wind gusts are possible as well. Greatest severe potential
is expected along the GA/SC border vicinity between 21Z and 00Z.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Complex synoptic evolution is anticipated over the eastern Pacific
Ocean, just upstream of southern CA and the Baja Peninsula, as
Tropical Storm Rachel interacts with a compact mid-latitude cyclone.
The interaction will increase the northeastward motion of the
tropical cyclone, while also resulting an expanded low to mid-level
wind field. Additionally, this evolution will favor advection of
notable low-level moisture into the Lower CO River Valley and
adjacent southern/central AZ. Overall thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase throughout the day into tonight. Deep-layer
vertical shear will be stronger enough for supercells, a few of
which could produce strong wind gusts. Additionally, surface low
associated with the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the
Lower CO River Valley region after 06Z. Increase low-level winds and
moisture will support a low-probability tornado threat.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/10/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 16:30:50 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 101630
SWODY1
SPC AC 101628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes are possible today over eastern Georgia into
the Carolinas.

...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.

...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/10/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 20:02:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 102002
SWODY1
SPC AC 102000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into this evening across
parts of eastern Georgia into southern and eastern South Carolina.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of CIG1 tornado
area, focused along the border of eastern GA and southern SC. The
combination of a large/clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (330
m2/s2 0-1km SRH per CAE VWP) and a warm/moist PBL along an effective
warm front will conditionally support a strong tornado with any
established supercells this afternoon and evening. For additional
details on the near-term severe risk, see Tornado Watch #679.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track, and only minor
changes were made.

..Weinman.. 10/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026/

...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.

...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 00:59:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat will be
possible this evening across parts of the Carolinas. A few severe
wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias will continue to move northward across the
Tennessee Valley this evening. In the eastern part of the system,
scattered convection with little lightning activity is currently
ongoing from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas.
This convection is located along and near the axis of a low-level
jet. Surface analysis has dewpoints over much of eastern Georgia and
southern South Carolina in the 70s F. Within this moist airmass, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Columbia, South Carolina has a looped
hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This
strong low-level shear will support a tornado threat this evening
into the overnight with rotating cells that remain semi-discrete,
mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North
Carolina.

...Desert Southwest...
Tropical Storm Rachel, in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave
trough, will move toward the northern part of Baja California this
evening. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will continue
across parts of the Desert Southwest. Over southwestern Arizona,
surface dewpoints will continue to increase into the mid to upper
60s F, aiding destabilization this evening with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1000 J/kg. In addition, large-scale ascent will increase as
the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. In
response to the lift, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
and move northeastward across southern and western Arizona this
evening. The mid-level jet will also create moderate to strong
deep-layer shear sufficient for isolated severe storms. A few severe
wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 05:49:14 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 040548
SWODY1
SPC AC 040547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes this
morning will help carve out/reinforce a larger-scale trough across
the eastern US. At the same time, a midlevel anticyclone will remain
in place across the western US. This pattern will favor
northwesterly flow across much of the eastern half of the country,
in turn supporting reinforcing shots of cooler air.

At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should support the development of
a cyclone across the far northern Gulf Coast or just inland across
southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This weak low will
slowly move east during the day.

... Portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Adjacent Coastal
Waters ...

A stalled surface front will be draped across the Southeast today,
with a very moist airmass in place along and south of it. Forecast
soundings across the area indicate nearly moist thermodynamic
profiles from surface to the tropopause, with the 20261004 00 UTC
HREF having mean precipitable water values around 2.5" across most
of the Florida Panhandle. Given these moist vertical profiles,
conditional instability will be low today, with mean MUCAPE values
generally 500 J/kg or less.

Despite the meager instability, one consequence of the moist
vertical profiles will be that LCL heights will be very low --
generally at or below 500 meters. At the same time, forecast
soundings in areas to the east of the surface low show modest wind
curvature in the lowest 3 km. Thus, despite the meager instability,
forced convective showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to
exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, especially over
coastal areas where surface friction is reduced. The threat should
slowly move east during the day as the surface low slowly moves
east.

..Marsh/Wendt.. 10/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 12:45:20 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 041244
SWODY1
SPC AC 041243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal
Florida Panhandle.

...Florida Panhandle...
A stalled/slow-southeastward-moving surface front will reside across
the Southeast and Deep South today, with a very moist airmass
persisting along and to its south, featuring Precipitable Water
values in excess of 2 inches. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
common early today south of the front, including across the northern
half of the Gulf. There are some guidance indications, most notably
recent NAM runs, that weak offshore surface low development may
occur today, with a related developing enhancement to the low-level
flow/SRH. Should this trend materialize, showers/thunderstorms will
have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level
circulations, mainly near the coast, with a related waterspout/brief
tornado potential.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 19:30:22 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 041930
SWODY1
SPC AC 041928

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026/

...Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama...
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast
today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches)
persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon,
including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak
offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement
to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped
along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should
this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient
low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related
waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will
likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with
some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest
increase in low-level flow may not occur.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 16:28:12 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 041628
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

...Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama...
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast
today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches)
persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon,
including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak
offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement
to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped
along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should
this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient
low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related
waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will
likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with
some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest
increase in low-level flow may not occur.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 10/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 01:02:14 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 050102
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
tonight.

...Synopsis...
A baroclinic zone across the Southeast U.S. continues to sag
southward as a broader upper trough tracks eastward from the Great
Lakes. Given the lack of stronger upper air support and the onset of
nocturnal cooling/decreased buoyancy, the coverage of lightning
flashes across the Southeast should continue to decrease overnight.
Similarly, a plume of marginal buoyancy over CO into NM, which has
supported some lightning flashes thus far, should also wane through
the evening.

..Squitieri.. 10/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 01:39:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 050139
SWODY1
SPC AC 050137

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
tonight.

...Synopsis...
A baroclinic zone across the Southeast U.S. continues to sag
southward as a broader upper trough tracks eastward from the Great
Lakes. Given the lack of stronger upper air support and the onset of
nocturnal cooling/decreased buoyancy, the coverage of lightning
flashes across the Southeast should continue to decrease overnight.
Similarly, a plume of marginal buoyancy over CO into NM, which has
supported some lightning flashes thus far, should also wane through
the evening.

..Squitieri.. 10/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 05:53:24 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 110553
SWODY1
SPC AC 110550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where
dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina
Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower
elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia
early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh
northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved
hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that
remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening
as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Desert Southwest/Four Corners...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the
Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern
Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak
instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor
as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into
southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from
the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong
deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 12:45:54 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 111245
SWODY1
SPC AC 111243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias are now a vertically stacked cyclone centered
over Middle TN this morning. Warm sector associated with this
cyclone is displaced east of the primary cyclone center, and is
delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm. This isodrosotherm
currently extends from the southern Delmarva Peninsula southwestward
to a triple point low over the TN/NC border and then southward
across central/south-central GA and the far eastern FL Panhandle.
Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow currently
extends throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone over the
warm sector.

Primary core of the cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward
across the central Appalachians this afternoon/evening before
continuing northeastward across VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast
overnight into early tomorrow. The occluded surface and triple point
lows associated with this system will shift northeastward as well.
This progression will result in northward advection of the warm
sector into more of eastern NC and southeast VA while the cold front
pushes eastward/northeastward. Abundant cloud cover will limit
heating and lapse rates will remain poor, but abundant low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy across the warm
sector. This buoyancy will support thunderstorm development along
and ahead of the cold front as it moves northeastward across the
region. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow will
persist across the warm sector, supporting the potential for rotation/organization with any deep and persistent updrafts. As a
result, isolated damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are
possible across the region. The best overlap between buoyancy and
shear is expected between 18Z and 00Z from north-central/northeast
NC into central/southeast VA.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. At the same time,
another cyclone will shift southward across the Pacific Northwest.
Dynamic response to this evolution will support a belt of strong
mid-level southwesterly flow from southern CA/AZ through WY into the
northern High Plains. Low to mid-level moisture associated with the
remnants of Rachel will spread northeastward as well.

Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned
moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to
mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense
bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating. A low-probability
tornado risk will also exist from this morning into the early
afternoon across near the surface low over the CA/NV/AZ border
intersection vicinity. Here, moist low-level southerly will elongate
hodographs (as shown in current ESX VAD), resulting in a kinematic
environment supportive of tornadoes. Limited buoyancy should keep
any tornado threat isolated and brief.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/11/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 16:31:56 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 111631
SWODY1
SPC AC 111629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across parts of North Carolina and
Virginia through the late afternoon. Additional storms with
isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert
Southwest and Four Corners region.

...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/11/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 20:01:58 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 112001
SWODY1
SPC AC 112000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes remain possible across parts eastern North
Carolina and southeastern Virginia into early evening. Additional
storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the
Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities were trimmed behind the primary
north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms spreading eastward
across eastern NC and southeastern VA. While thunderstorms have been
weakening while approaching the coast, a moist air mass and
clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH per VWP data) will still conditionally support a couple of
tornadoes within Tornado Watch #681 into early evening.

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes
were made.

..Weinman.. 10/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026/

...NC/VA vicinity...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a dry slot/vorticity lobe wrapping
through the base of the larger-scale remnants/cyclone associated
with Isaias and progressing eastward across the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Surface analysis places a triple point over
northwest NC with a maritime warm frontal zone draped east-northeast
into the DelMarVa. Despite considerable cloud cover according to visible-satellite imagery, surface temperatures are gradually
warming into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NC and far
southeast VA. This modest heating has led to the development of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NC and weaker buoyancy
farther north near Richmond, VA (a few hundred J/kg). The forced
band of broken thunderstorm activity moving east across NC will
likely be the primary feature for severe weather across this general
region through the late afternoon. A few supercells embedded within
the north-south oriented band will potentially pose a risk for a few
additional tornadoes and perhaps an isolated risk for strong to
locally severe gusts (see MCD 2361 for short-term details). Have
added a level-1 intensity highlight for the area of greatest
tornadic supercell potential through mid afternoon. By late this
afternoon, it is possible (albeit uncertain) that a narrow corridor
adequately destabilizes ahead of triple point as it develops
northeastward into central VA. If sufficient destabilization occurs
and sustained/robust storms also develop, a localized tornado/wind
threat could ensue prior to sunset.

...Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin...
Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the
CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough
covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to
progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin
and ending the period over central/eastern MT. Persistent
large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will
support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level
southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing
segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas
that can experience filtered daytime heating.

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 00:49:38 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 120049
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with and isolated tornado threat will be possible this
evening near the Mid-Atlantic coast. Isolated severe gusts will also
be possible across parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Mid Atlantic...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the southern Appalachians. The eastern periphery of the system
is located from the Mid-Atlantic extending offshore into the western
Atlantic. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is located
from far eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia, along which
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Isolated
thunderstorm development will continue to be possible near the
instability axis this evening. Strong low-level shear associated
with a speed max along the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue an
isolated tornado threat for a few more hours the evening.

...Desert Southwest...
Southwesterly mid-level flow is in place over the Desert Southwest
this evening. At the surface, a moist axis is located across western
Arizona, where dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s F. Along and near
the moist axis, the RAP shows weak instability in place with SBCAPE
around 500 J/kg. Over the top of this airmass, strong flow is
present in the mid-levels according to RAP forecast soundings, which
is creating 0-6 km shear around 50 knots over much western and
central Arizona into southern Utah. This may be enough for an
isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 05:38:06 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 120537
SWODY1
SPC AC 120535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will remain over the
eastern two-thirds of the nation today, as a trough moves through
the western states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure
will be located from the Gulf Coast into the central Appalachians. A
cold front will move southeastward through the north-central U.S.,
as a surface low moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorm development will be possible today near and ahead of
the surface low across the Great Lakes, and further west within the post-frontal airmass in the northern Plains. Scattered storms will
also form within southwest flow aloft, from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Storms will also be
possible in the southern High Plains, across parts of the Texas
Coastal Plain and in south Florida. No severe threat is forecast
across the continental U.S. today and tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/12/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 12:48:42 2026

ACUS01 KWNS 121248
SWODY1
SPC AC 121246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a deep upper trough covering
much of the CONUS west of the Rockies. Several shortwave troughs are
embedded within this troughing, including one moving out of the
central High Plains towards NE and SD, one progressing through the
base of the trough towards southern CA, and one moving through
southern NV toward UT. Extensive upper ridging is in place
downstream across much of the central CONUS with another shortwave
trough moving off the East Coast.

Recent surface analysis reveals expansive ridging centered over AL
that extends through the OH Valley. This ridging is flanked by a
pair of surface lows, one just off the Delmarva Peninsula and the
other over central NE. The central NE low sits along a wavy frontal
zone that extends northeastward through another low in southeast MN
through western Upper MI and northwest Ontario.

Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the Mid
MO/MS Valley into the Upper Midwest as the NE/SD shortwave trough,
and attending NE surface low, progress northeastward today. Warm
mid-level temperatures will prevent convection within the warm
sector, but elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible north of
the surface low, beginning across the eastern Dakotas during the
afternoon and continuing eastward across the Upper Midwest and into
the Upper Great Lakes. Small hail is possible with the strongest
storms.

Moist and moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout eastern periphery the western CONUS troughing, aiding in
the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms as the
southern NV shortwave trough continues northeastward today. Weak
buoyancy should temper overall storm strength, although a strong
gusts or two is possible with the deepest storms.

Low-level confluence could support afternoon thunderstorms within
the moist return flow from the TX coast into central TX. Weak shear
should moderate storm severity. Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are possible along the weak lee troughing across the
southern High Plains as well. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft
strength and persistence.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/12/2026

$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

Who's Online

Recent Visitors

Guest
Sat Dec 13 07:02:43 2025
from System via Raw

John F Kennedy
Wed Dec 3 23:10:52 2025
from Crazyworldbbs.Com:2323 via Telnet

Guest
Fri Sep 19 02:46:51 2025
from System via Raw

Speedcam
Thu Jul 31 20:10:00 2025
from Melbourne, Vic via Telnet

System Info

Sysop: Richard Williamson

Location: Pueblo, Co

Users: 2

Nodes: 4 (0 / 4)

Uptime: 21:53:37

Calls: 143

Messages: 44,594

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

Who's Online

Recent Visitors

System Info