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  • DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:33:02 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 051732
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 051730

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast
    Sunday afternoon and early evening. Additional areas at risk for
    severe wind and hail are across parts of northern Utah northward
    into Montana and east into the northern Plains and Middle Missouri
    Valley.

    ... Synopsis ...

    A high-amplitude mid-level ridge will persist across the central US
    on Sunday, with troughing across both the east and west coasts.
    Embedded within the basal region of the western trough, a closed low
    should open up and take on a negative tilt as it moves along the
    northwest periphery of the central ridge.

    At the surface, an anticyclone will be located across the upper
    Great Lakes, ushering in a cooler, drier air mass from the Upper
    Midwest east across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Demarcating
    the boundary between this continental air mass and the more maritime
    air mass to the south and west will be a front stretched from the Minnesota-North/South Dakota border south and east to southeast
    Missouri and then east from there to the East Coast.


    ... Southeast ...

    A very humid air mass will be in place across the region, with HREF
    mean dewpoint temperatures in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Diurnal
    heating will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
    low-to-mid-90Fs, yielding MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. (High-resolution guidance is generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range,
    with coarser-scale guidance, such as the RAP, showing perhaps as
    high as 4000 J/kg.)

    Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon as
    convective temperatures are reached. Precipitable water values
    around 2 inches and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg will support
    heavy, water-laden downbursts capable of scattered wind damage.
    Slightly better deep-layer shear across portions of Georgia and the
    Carolinas may support at least transient thunderstorm organization
    in the form of multi-cell clusters which may pose a slightly greater
    risk of organized wind damage.


    ... Mid-Missouri Valley and Northern Plains ...

    Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period
    across portions of the area or develop shortly thereafter. These
    thunderstorms will likely be driven by strong warm-air advection
    near the apex of the mid-level ridge. These storms may initially
    pose a risk of large hail and gusty winds. With time, diurnal
    heating may support a transition from elevated-to-surface based
    thunderstorms, increasing the potential for damaging winds,
    especially as low-level lapse rate steepen. Deep-layer shear will
    support individual storms moving southeast while the larger-scale
    evolution will be toward the southwest.

    The exact evolution of this convection, in particular where the
    narrow corridor develops, remains a bit uncertain. As confidence
    increases in the location of these storms, higher severe weather
    probabilities may be needed.


    ... Northwest Utah into Montana ...

    As the western mid-level low opens and takes on a negative tilt as
    it traverses the northwest periphery of the central US ridge,
    large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development
    across portions of northwest Utah, Idaho, and western Wyoming.
    Strong mid-level flow (around 50 knots at 500 millibars) coupled
    with a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support downward
    momentum transfer within these thunderstorms capable of producing
    scattered wind damage. These storms will quickly move northeast into
    Montana during the evening hours. If coverage of these storms is
    greater than expected, higher wind probabilities would be warranted
    in subsequent outlooks.

    ..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 05:12:04 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 060511
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 060510

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
    northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

    ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest...

    An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward from the northern
    Rockies to the northern Plains on Monday. This will break down the
    upper ridge across the region, shifting it eastward toward the Great
    Lakes. At this occurs, strengthening mid/upper southwesterly flow
    will overspread the Plains. Southerly low-level winds will maintain
    a corridor of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints ahead of a surface low
    lifting northeast across the Dakotas. Warmer midlevel temperatures
    may result in capping for much of the day. However, as the upper
    trough approaching cooling aloft and increasing large-scale ascent
    should erode inhibition by late afternoon. Vertically veering wind
    profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt.
    Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for large hail
    and locally damaging gusts.

    A south/southwest low-level jet is forecast to increase during the
    evening. Though nocturnal cooling will resulting in increase
    inhibition after dark, warm advection aided by the strengthening
    low-level jet may result in one or more clusters of strong storms
    across the eastern portions of the Dakotas/Nebraska and into MN
    during the nighttime hours. It is uncertain if sufficient
    instability will persist overnight to support severe convection, but
    given the strength of mid/upper flow, some risk for damaging wind
    gusts could persist overnight.

    ..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 17:17:56 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 061717
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 061716

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
    northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

    ... Synopsis ...

    A mid-level shortwave trough will take on increasingly negative tilt
    on Monday as it lifts north-northeast along the northwest periphery
    of a central CONUS ridge. At the same time, a subtle, low-amplitude
    short-wave trough currently over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of
    Southern California will quickly move northeast ahead of the main
    wave.

    At the surface, an anticyclone over the Upper Great Lakes will
    maintain south-southeasterly flow across the Plains, sustaining mid-to-upper-60Fs dewpoints across the Missouri Valley into the
    Dakotas and western Minnesota. A weak low across eastern Montana
    will eventually redevelop northward into the Canadian Prairies
    overnight. As this happens, a cold front will move east across the
    Northern Plains.


    ... Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest ...

    The lead short-wave trough will be approaching the north-central US
    at the start of the forecast period (Monday morning). As the
    associated mid-level jet approaches, the low-level jet will increase
    and spread northward across the Plains. On the nose of this jet,
    elevated convection is likely to be ongoing in response to the
    warm-air advection. Latest model guidance maintains the low-level
    jet through the day and subsequently the morning convection is
    likely to persist through the day as it moves northeast toward
    western Minnesota. Although widespread cloud cover and moist
    mid-level profiles will limit instability, the degree of the
    cloud-layer shear will support at least some potential for hail with
    these elevated storms.

    To the southwest of the morning convection, clearing clouds will
    give way to robust heating allowing surface temperatures to climb
    into the upper-80Fs to mid-90Fs, with even hotter surface
    temperatures across western Nebraska. This will allow strong
    instability to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface cold
    front/dry line.

    Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are possible during the
    afternoon along the surface front/dryline. However, low-level
    convergence along this boundary will be somewhat weak, with southerly/southwesterly flow ahead of it. At the same time,
    large-scale subsidence will likely be occurring in the wake of the
    morning convection. This should limit storm coverage across western
    South Dakota and western Nebraska. Northwest North Dakota and
    eastern Montana will be closer to the main wave as its associated
    better large-scale ascent. Thus, storm coverage may be slightly
    higher here during the afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong
    wind gusts will be possible with any of these storms.

    Overnight, the low-level jet increases in response to the main wave
    approaching the area. This should result in additional elevated
    thunderstorm development from northeast Nebraska into the eastern
    Dakotas. This activity should continue east across Minnesota through
    the overnight. Overall instability should be on the low side given
    the convection from the lead shortwave, but strong cloud-layer shear
    could support a hail and wind threat with the strongest elevated
    convection.

    ..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:16:28 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 070515
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 070513

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
    Plains into the Upper Midwest.

    ...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
    Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will
    overspread the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley as this occurs. Meanwhile,
    a surface low over Manitoba will lift northeast through the early
    Wednesday. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward across the
    Upper Midwest, with the southern extent of the boundary stalling
    over southern NE. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be
    in place, supporting pockets of weak to moderate instability.

    Most forecast guidance depicts ongoing thunderstorms Tuesday morning
    across parts of MN/WI within a warm advection regime. This activity
    could pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts. Early day
    thunderstorms could impact airmass recovery and destabilization for afternoon/evening severe potential ahead of the advancing cold
    front. If sufficient recovery occurs, another round of severe
    potential could develop from southeast MN into WI and the MI Upper
    Peninsula. Otherwise, severe potential will increase during the
    evening with southward extent ahead of the front across IA/eastern
    NE and perhaps northern KS. While vertical shear will lessen with
    southward extent, initial cells will likely develop into line
    segments along the front. An initial risk of hail and strong gusts
    will transition to mainly a damaging wind risk as storm mode becomes
    more linear.

    ..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 17:48:16 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 071747
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 071746

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
    Plains into the Upper Midwest.

    ...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...
    An upper-level shortwave trough currently translating through the
    northern Rockies will move into the Canadian Prairies and northern
    Plains on Tuesday. A secondary upper-level feature will translate
    from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through the period.
    South of these features, enhanced mid-to upper-level southwesterly
    flow will overspread the Mid-Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys.
    At the surface, a low over Manitoba will lift northeastward into
    Ontario by early Wednesday. A trailing cold front will move eastward
    across the Upper Midwest while the southern extent of the boundary
    is forecast to stall over southern Nebraska.

    Ahead of the front, persistent southerly return flow will maintain a
    moist warm-sector with weak to moderate instability ahead of the
    front. Most CAM guidance depicts elevated thunderstorms Tuesday
    morning across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, near the nose of
    the low-level jet. This early activity will likely pose an initial
    risk for marginally severe hail and isolated strong wind gusts.

    Further south, severe potential is expected to gradually increase
    during the evening ahead of the front across Iowa, eastern Nebraska,
    and potentially northern Kansas. Deep-layer shear will progressively
    lessen with southward extent but strong convergence along the
    stalling boundary should support convective initiation within the
    moderately unstable boundary-layer. Initial cells will likely have a
    threat for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts, but are
    expected to quickly grow upscale into line segments with a greater
    damaging wind threat later Tuesday evening.

    ..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 05:15:52 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 080515
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 080513

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

    ...Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes...

    An upper trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
    and Northeast on Wednesday. Stronger deep-layer flow will be focused
    across the Great Lakes and Northeast, to the north of a corridor of
    modest instability. As a surface cold front develops southeast
    toward the Ohio Valley and western NY during the evening, isolated
    to scattered thunderstorm development is expected. While modest
    instability will limit a more substantial severe risk, stronger
    deep-layer flow will support sporadic strong gusts.

    ...Central Plains to Lower Ohio Valley...

    Stronger instability is forecast within a moist and hot airmass from
    KS to the Lower MO and Lower OH Valleys Wednesday afternoon and
    evening. This area will remain well south of strong westerly flow
    aloft associated with the Great Lake upper trough, resulting in
    modest vertical shear, especial across KS. Despite modest shear,
    MLCAPE around 1500-2500 amid steeper low and midlevel lapse rates
    will support some risk of strong to severe convection. Storms
    developing along a surface boundary will mainly pose a risk for
    damaging gusts. Where marginally stronger shear will be located
    across the Lower MO Valley vicinity, small hail could also occur
    with the strongest updrafts.

    ..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 17:10:42 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 081710
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 081708

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO
    INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more
    organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to
    western New York.

    ...Eastern Ohio into western New York...
    A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast
    on Wednesday with moderate mid-level flow expanding along the
    southern periphery of this trough. A strong surface low associated
    with this trough will move across northern Ontario with a cold front
    extending into the Midwest. Ahead of this front, low 70s dewpoints
    are forecast to advect northward across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and
    western New York. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively weak, but
    the moist environment will support moderate instability amid
    moderate effective shear. A line of storms is forecast to develop
    along the front from central Ohio into western New York. This
    environment should support damaging winds. Some tornado threat may
    exist as the low-level flow strengthens during the afternoon with
    clockwise curved low-level hodographs. However, a mostly linear
    storm mode should limit the overall tornado threat.

    ...Ohio Valley to the central Plains...
    Moderate instability is forecast to develop from the central Plains
    to the Ohio Valley. Across the plains, instability will be driven by
    a hot, deeply mixed environment while instability farther east will
    be driven by 70s dewpoints. Within this entire zone, mid-level flow
    is expected to remain quite weak which will limit storm
    organization. Water-loaded downbursts farther east and drier
    microbursts in the mixed environment farther west will be the
    primary hazard within the Marginal Risk. A zone of greater
    instability from eastern Missouri into western Indiana could support
    an isolated hail threat, particularly if some of this greater
    instability can spread beneath stronger mid-level flow. However,
    morning convection/cloudcover may be present where this most
    favorable environment could develop.

    ..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 05:19:18 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 090519
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 090517

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1217 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE
    MID-SOUTH...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
    afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks
    into the Mid-South.

    ...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...

    An upper shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the
    Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front is
    forecast to extend across the Ohio Valley into the southern High
    Plains during the morning. The western extent of the boundary over
    the southern High plains will sag southward through the period into northern/central TX, while the eastern extent of the boundary stalls
    over the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in
    place near and south of the surface boundary. Pockets of weak to
    moderate instability are expected near the surface boundary, but
    will largely be modulated by areas of ongoing precipitation at the
    beginning of the period, as well as weak midlevel lapse rates.

    Low-level flow is expected to remain weak, while strong flow aloft
    will be offset from stronger instability ahead of the surface front.
    This will limit more focused/robust severe potential. However, a few
    strong storms could occur across the southern High Plains within the post-frontal upslope flow regime where vertically veering wind
    profiles could support around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes.
    Marginal hail and gusty winds could occur within this regime.

    Within the very moist and moderately unstable airmass further east
    across portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South, sufficient clustering
    could occur to promote sporadic strong wind gusts via storm/outflow interactions, or from wet microbursts within the high-PW and steeper
    low-level lapse rate environment.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 04:45:28 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 050445
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 050443

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1143 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will eject northeastward out of the
    Maritimes and New England, with a secondary low-amplitude trough
    pushing across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday
    night. A large area of high pressure will encompass much of the
    eastern states, preventing much destabilization ahead of the Great
    Lakes system. Even so, weak elevated instability may support
    isolated weak thunderstorms over Michigan late.

    To the south, thunderstorms will again be likely over the Gulf of
    America into central and southern Florida as northeast surface winds
    push a cold front farther south. Weak shear and lapse rates will
    preclude severe weather chances over Florida.

    Elsewhere, scattered storms are expected over the eastern Great
    Basin and into western Colorado, as a pocket of cooler midlevel
    temperatures with a weak upper wave moves across the area. Severe
    storms are unlikely, though locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out
    during the afternoon due to the dry sub-cloud layer.

    ..Jewell.. 10/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 17:40:12 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 051732
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 051730

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are unlikely Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    Strong northwest flow will intensify over the northern third of the
    US behind a departing upper trough over the western Atlantic. A
    secondary low-amplitude trough over southern Canada is forecast to
    move across the Upper Great Lakes and intensify as is moves into the
    northern US. Cool mid-level temperatures beneath the deepening
    trough could support isolated thunderstorms across the northern
    Great Lakes late Tuesday. Otherwise, the cool northerly flow and
    high pressure over the eastern states will favor drier and more
    stable conditions for much of the region.

    To the south of the surface high pressure, scattered thunderstorms
    will again be likely over the Gulf Coast and into central and
    southern Florida as northeast surface winds push a cold front
    farther south. Severe storms are not expected as lapse rates and
    vertical shear are forecast to remain weak.

    A weak upper trough and a pocket of cooler mid-level temperatures
    moving over the Rockies is forecast to steepen low/mid-level lapse
    rates through the day. While ascent and overall moisture will be
    modest, sufficient buoyancy could support isolated thunderstorms
    over the higher terrain.

    ..Lyons.. 10/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 04:07:56 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 060407
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 060405

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1105 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.

    ...Northern Great Lakes...
    An upper low will move slowly toward James Bay, with a broad area of
    cyclonic flow aloft extending from the Upper MS Valley across the
    Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A backside speed max aloft will
    nose into MI late in the day, and toward the Lower Great Lakes into
    Thursday morning. Cool temperatures aloft north of the midlevel
    speed max and minimal moisture may yield a few weak thunderstorms
    late in the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes.

    ...Four Corners States...
    Cool midlevel temperatures will exist across the Four Corners
    states, east of the upper ridge axis over CA. Isolated general
    thunderstorms will be possible with day time heating in the weak
    flow regime. Locally strong gusts may occur during the peak heating
    hours.

    ...NE...
    During the evening, a slight increase in low-level warm advection
    will occur over the Central Plains, and a few thunderstorms will be
    possible over NE overnight. Although cool aloft, available moisture
    will limit instability overall.

    ...FL...
    High pressure will maintain stable surface conditions over the
    southern Plains and Southeast, the exception being the FL Peninsula
    where scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
    Instability and shear will not favor severe storms.

    ..Jewell.. 10/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 06:01:24 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 290601
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 290559

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

    Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado
    or two will be possible across the southern Plains Wednesday
    afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur
    from parts of western and central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.

    ...Southern Plains...
    An upper-level low and an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet
    will move from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on
    Wednesday. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward
    into southwest Kansas. A dryline will become well-defined from the
    low southward into west Texas during the afternoon. To the east of
    the dryline, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will
    contribute to a pocket of moderate instability over west-central
    Texas and southwest Oklahoma, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in
    the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Large-scale ascent associated with the
    trough, will move into the southern High Plains supporting
    thunderstorm development along the instability axis. Thunderstorms
    will expand in coverage as a line develops and moves eastward across
    the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.

    The mid-level jet streak will result in a increase of deep-layer
    shear across the southern Plains throughout the day. Forecast
    soundings by 21Z over west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear in the 35
    to 40 knot range, which will support supercell development.
    Supercells will be most likely early in the event, when storms are
    most likely to be discrete. Supercells will be capable of severe
    wind gusts and hail. As cell coverage increases, a line is expected
    to gradually organize. Wind damage and hail will be possible along
    the leading edge of this line. In addition, low-level shear will
    also increase during the early evening, which may be sufficient for
    an isolated tornado threat with rotating elements within the line.
    The wind-damage threat should continue into the mid evening, as the
    line moves eastward across southwest Oklahoma and west-central
    Texas.

    ...Western and Central Kansas...
    An upper-level low will move across the southern Rockies on
    Wednesday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the
    central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen and move into
    southwest Kansas by afternoon, as a warm front moves across central
    and northern Kansas. Increasing low-level convergence associated
    with the low will aid thunderstorm development in the late afternoon
    along and near an axis of instability axis. Forecast soundings near
    the instability axis in west-central Kansas suggest that MLCAPE
    could peak near 1000 J/kg. This, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30
    knots could be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail.

    ..Broyles.. 09/29/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 17:27:36 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 061727
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 061725

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Wednesday or
    Wednesday night.

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Wednesday
    across the northeastern third of the nation. Within the flow, a
    shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes. Isolated to
    scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of this feature in the
    afternoon. Thunderstorms will also be possible within a moist and
    unstable airmass across parts of the Florida Peninsula and in south
    Texas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also develop in the
    afternoon from parts of the Four Corners region into the central
    Rockies and central Plains. No severe threat is expected across the
    continental U.S. Wednesday and Wednesday night.

    ..Broyles.. 10/06/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 04:31:10 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 070430
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 070428

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1128 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will move east out of James Bay and into Quebec on
    Thursday, with a broad upper trough from the Great Lakes into the
    Northeast. A leading midlevel speed max is forecast to move across
    southern New England during the day, with cold temperatures aloft to
    the north. This may favor isolated low-topped thunderstorms from the
    Upper Hudson Valley into Maine as surface heating occurs and a wind shift/trough sweeps across the region. Very small hail cannot be
    ruled out with 500 mb temperatures near -25 C.

    To the south, strong low-level easterlies will develop over the
    northern Gulf of America as the tropical cyclone strengthens over
    the central Gulf, possibly into a hurricane by Thursday evening per
    NHC. This flow regime will maintain 70s F dewpoints over FL, with
    scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible. Severe storms are not
    expected due to weak shear and poor lapse rates.

    To the west, cool midlevel temperatures to -12 C will exist over the
    Great Basin, with sparse weak thunderstorms over parts of the Four
    Corners states during the afternoon.

    Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may occur from eastern NE into IA
    late in the day and overnight as southwesterly 850 mb winds increase
    to 30 kt, with sufficient elevated instability present in the warm advection/height rise regime.

    ..Jewell.. 10/07/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 17:17:26 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 071717
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 071715

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    The risk of severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. for
    Thursday through Thursday night.

    ...Discussion...
    A generally zonal belt of stronger westerlies is likely to persist
    into and through this period across the northern mid-latitudes of
    North America. Within this regime, broad mid/upper troughing is
    forecast to continue shifting east of the lower Great Lakes through
    the northern Atlantic Seaboard. Forcing for ascent associated with
    an embedded short wave trough may support renewed cyclogenesis
    across eastern Quebec through Newfoundland and Labrador, with an
    initial trailing cold front advancing offshore of much of the
    northern through middle Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday night.

    Upstream, cyclogenesis also appears likely to the lee of the
    Canadian Rockies, in advance of larger-scale mid/upper troughing
    digging across and inland of the British Columbia coast. It appears
    that this will be accompanied by deepening surface troughing to the
    lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, through much of the northern and
    central Great Plains, by 12Z Friday.

    High boundary-layer moisture content remains confined to the
    southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, and is not likely to
    appreciably return northward. However, a corridor of modest
    low-level moisture may linger along a stalling to northward
    returning segment of the frontal zone across the central Great
    Plains into middle to lower Missouri Valley. Even so, latest model
    output suggests that this will probably remain capped by warm, dry
    air in the lower/mid-troposphere, with little support for the
    initiation of thunderstorms, aside from, perhaps, better moisture
    return within a corridor of strengthening lower/mid-level warm
    advection across Iowa late Thursday night into early Friday.

    In the wake of the initial surface cold front, across parts of the
    lower Great Lakes region into northern New England, fairly
    significant cooling in the 700-500 mb layer may be sufficient to
    contribute to scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity.

    In lower-latitudes, convection-allowing guidance suggests that
    modestly cool mid-levels, in the wake of digging upper-level
    troughing across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may
    contribute to scattered diurnal thunderstorm development across
    parts of the Four Corner's states into Rio Grande Valley.

    Downstream of the digging upper troughing, and a potentially
    strengthening hurricane (Isaias) slowly migrating northeastward
    across the southwestern Gulf Basin, scattered thunderstorm activity
    will remain possible within the lingering high moisture content air
    near northeastern Gulf coastal areas, and across portions of the
    Florida Peninsula, Thursday through Thursday night.

    ..Kerr.. 10/07/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 05:33:00 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 080532
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 080530

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME
    SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME
    SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A risk for tornadoes will develop across the northeastern Gulf
    coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.

    ...Northern Gulf Coast...
    The latest NHC forecast track brings Isaias into southern Alabama
    and the western Florida Panhandle Friday night and into early
    Saturday morning, which places the most favorable tornado risk to
    the east. While there is uncertainty regarding forward speed, the
    mid 70s F dewpoints and therefore favorable instability will at
    least move inland across the coastal counties of AL/FL Panhandle by
    12Z Saturday (the end of the Day 2 period).

    Several CAMs are now resolving moderate to strong UH tracks,
    especially over the western FL Panhandle. Model forecast soundings,
    while somewhat variable in regard to the exact amount of
    instability, all appear sufficient to support supercells with
    tornado risk as shear and low-level ascent will both be favorable.
    Supercells may become evident on radar over the Gulf, with tornado
    threat increasing as cells move ashore and surface winds gain a
    southerly component. As such, tornado probabilities have been
    increased for Friday Night.

    ..Jewell.. 10/08/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 04:00:42 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 020400
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 020358

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1058 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

    Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

    ...Synopsis...
    On Saturday, a broad upper trough will develop into Ontario, with a
    leading speed max moving from the northern Plains across the Great
    Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper high will be centered over the Great
    Basin, with relatively high midlevel heights extending into the
    Southeast.

    At the surface, a high pressure center will move from MI into the
    Northeast, with the surface ridge extending southwestward into the
    southern High Plains. Northeasterly surface winds will thus relegate
    the more robust moisture/dewpoints to the Gulf Coast states.

    Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the day over the Upper
    Midwest in association with the shortwave trough, as temperatures
    aloft cool. Moisture and instability will be minimal, but weak
    elevated instability should support at least isolated lightning
    flashes.

    Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the Gulf
    Coast and extending into the Carolinas as the air mass will become
    marginally unstable with heating. Weak shear will further preclude
    severe possibilities.

    ..Jewell.. 10/02/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 17:26:36 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 021726
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 021724

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

    Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A midlevel trough now over WA will progress eastward across the
    upper MS Valley tomorrow, accompanied by a surface cold front.
    Conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates, in combination with
    sufficient midlevel moistening in the zone of ascent preceding the
    midlevel trough, will support the potential for elevated
    thunderstorms across the upper MS Valley. Elsewhere, a slow-moving
    front will extend from the Carolinas to the northwest Gulf and
    provide a focus for thunderstorm development. Severe storms are not
    expected as a result of deep, moist profiles and weak vertical
    shear.

    ..Thompson.. 10/02/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 04:16:56 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 030416
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 030414

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1114 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A large-scale upper trough will deepen from Ontario into Quebec
    Sunday as an upper low moves across James Bay. A leading shortwave
    trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast,
    with an attendant surface front. However, little if any instability
    will be present to support thunderstorms.

    Behind the lead wave, a larger backside speed max will nose into the
    Upper Great Lakes late in the day, with another surface high
    building across much of the Midwest. Scattered thunderstorms will
    remain possible from the TX Coast to FL, where low-level moisture
    and instability (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg) will exist. Weak shear and warm temperatures aloft will not favor severe storms.

    Elsewhere, a few weak afternoon thunderstorms may occur over a small
    part of central/southwest CO over the higher terrain where minimal
    instability will exist due to steep lapse rates.

    ..Jewell.. 10/03/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 17:47:16 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 081727
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 081725

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
    THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND VICINITY
    AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A risk for tornadoes may develop across northeastern Gulf coastal
    areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.

    ...Discussion...
    Models continue to indicate substantive amplification of mid/upper
    troughing within the mid-latitude westerlies, across British
    Columbia through the Pacific Northwest Friday through Friday night.
    As this occurs, downstream ridging is forecast to build a bit
    further while translating east of the Canadian Prairies/northern
    U.S. Great Plains through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great
    Lakes by early Saturday. Farther east, large-scale mid-level
    troughing likely will continue slowly across and east of the New England/Canadian Maritimes vicinity. In lower latitudes, mid/upper
    troughing forced southeastward within a weaker branch of westerlies
    may contribute to a northeastward acceleration of Tropical Storm
    Rachel across the lower latitude eastern Pacific. An upper-level
    trough farther downstream is forecast to accelerate northeast of the
    Texas coastal plain and contribute to the evolution of a mid-level
    low across or just east of the lower Mississippi Valley, as it
    interacts with Hurricane Isaias.

    The spread concerning the evolution of the increasingly sheared
    hurricane remains sizable, particularly as it progresses across and
    inland of northeastern Gulf coastal areas. In general, it still
    appears most probable that it will take a north to northwestward
    turn after migrating inland near/east of Mobile Bay. This has been
    preceded by an influx of dry/potentially cool boundary-layer air
    across much of the northeastern Gulf Coast states through Carolinas,
    which may be reinforced later today through Friday on the
    southwestern flank of building surface ridging becoming centered
    across the northern Mid Atlantic states.

    ...Northeastern Gulf Coast region...
    The risk for tornadoes in association with Isaias remains unclear
    for Friday through Friday night. Based on the forecast storm track
    and speed, it appears possible, if not probable, that the favorable
    right front quadrant (with respect to storm motion) forcing for
    ascent and vertical shear will spread north-northwestward inland of
    coastal areas before near-surface thermodynamic profiles
    destabilize. As this approaches southwestern Alabama and western
    Florida coastal areas prior to 10/00Z, supercell structures with
    potential to produce waterspouts may impact offshore waters.
    However, it is not clear that near-surface destabilization will
    maintain intensity across the coastal waters and inland, prior to
    the onset of mid-level warming and subsidence. Barring a
    substantive change to the forecast track, it is possible that severe probabilities could be reduced across this area in later outlooks
    for this period.

    Closer to the Tallahassee and Apalachicola vicinities, and eastward
    across the Florida Big Bend, a gradual inland boundary-layer
    moistening and destabilization appears possible later Friday evening
    into early Saturday, to the east and southeast of the center of
    Isaias. Coincident with the continuing presence of at least sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, forcing ascent to the east of
    the developing dry slot may be sufficient to maintain a band or
    bands of convective development, with transient embedded supercell
    structures posing a risk for tornadoes.

    ..Kerr.. 10/08/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:39:30 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 090552
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 090550

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST
    GULF COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle
    into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday through Saturday
    night. Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
    perhaps a tornado appear possible over the lower Colorado Valley
    Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

    ...Synopsis...

    The remnants of Hurricane Isaias initially over southwest or
    west-central AL Saturday morning are forecast to advance
    north-northwest before turning north and then northeast through the
    TN Valley Saturday night. The system will be in the process of
    undergoing extratropical transition owing to its phasing with a
    subtropical branch trough, resulting in the broadening of an
    enhanced, southerly deep-layer wind field along and to the east of
    the cyclone track.

    Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Rachel will approach northern Baja and the
    lower-CO Valley late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as it is
    drawn into the southern extension of a strengthening midlevel trough
    along the West Coast.


    ...Southeast...

    As the primary surface low develops north into the TN Valley, it
    will become increasingly displaced from the effective warm sector,
    which is forecast to advance inland through GA and the Carolinas,
    along and south of a warm (or retreating wedge) front. Considerable
    cloud cover and areas of precipitation are expected to limit daytime
    heating within the poleward-expanding warm sector. However,
    dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will largely contribute to modest
    instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in some areas. Where
    sufficient destabilization can occur, the presence of a relatively
    strong deep-layer wind field with sizable SRH will support
    supercells capable tornadoes centered largely over southern and
    central GA Saturday with that threat spreading into parts of the
    Carolinas Saturday evening and night.

    A conditional intensity group 1 tornado contour was considered over
    portions of central GA where low-level shear is forecast to be
    maximized during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. However,
    uncertainties in the degree of air mass destabilization precluded
    the inclusion of that contour, as well as any higher unconditional
    tornado probabilities.


    ...Lower Colorado Valley...

    Deep-layer moisture is expected to increase through the forecast
    period within a zone of strengthening low/midlevel flow preceding
    the tropical system. The moisture increase will combine with daytime
    heating to yield pockets of moderate instability Saturday afternoon,
    supporting the potential for isolated strong to severe storms
    capable of severe wind gusts. A comparatively greater risk for
    severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two is expected to
    materialize Saturday night into early Sunday as vertical shear and
    forcing for ascent strengthen across the region.


    ...Great Basin...

    A belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow is forecast downstream from the
    evolving, western U.S. trough. Steepening low/midlevel lapse rates
    are expected to support modest instability by afternoon, which will
    coincide with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few strong
    storms capable of gusty winds Saturday afternoon and evening. If
    subsequent model data indicate stronger instability, low severe
    weather probabilities may need to be included.

    ..Mead.. 10/09/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:43:54 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 091730
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 091729

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
    SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
    THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    The threat for a few tornadoes will exist from the Florida Panhandle
    into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday
    evening.

    ...Discussion...
    Models continue to indicate consolidation of a number of short wave perturbations into highly amplified larger-scale mid/upper troughing
    across much of the Pacific Coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday
    night. It appears that this will include digging troughing within
    the initially stronger branch of mid-latitude westerlies along the
    northern U.S. Pacific coast, and consolidating troughing in a
    separate weaker branch across the southern mid- to subtropical
    latitude eastern Pacific into southern California/northern Baja.
    Near the leading edge of this latter regime, the remnants of
    Tropical Storm Rachel may accelerate inland into the southern
    California Sonoran Desert vicinity by 12Z Sunday.

    Downstream flow is forecast to remain split, with broad mid/upper
    ridging forecast to generally continue to build within the stronger
    northern branch, east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard.
    Within the weaker southern branch, a developing mid-level low,
    including remnants of Isaias, and associated upper troughing are
    forecast to begin gradually turning northward and northeastward,
    around the northwestern periphery of westward building mid/upper
    ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic through the northern
    Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.

    ...Southeast...
    As the sheared remnants of Isaias progress further inland, the
    low-level circulation center is expected to eventually undergo a
    period of more rapid weakening. After curving north-northwestward
    into/through a drier/more stable environment across central Alabama,
    it is forecast to slowly accelerate northward/northeastward toward
    the Cumberland Plateau Saturday night. However, there remains
    rather sizable spread within/among the various model output
    concerning this and related developments, which will considerably
    impact any continuing risk for tornadoes.

    In general, it appears that a broad lingering belt of moderate
    southerly low-level flow (perhaps with embedded stronger corridors)
    will support a moistening sector to the east/southeast of the
    center, on the modifying southwestern flank of a surface ridge
    slowly shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic
    coastal areas. This likely will include the return seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, with dew points increasing into the
    70s F, which may support CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg to the
    east of the remnant mid-level warm core.

    As the upstream mid/upper troughing slowly pivots toward this
    environment, intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable
    through the afternoon into evening, mainly across Georgia and
    northern Florida into parts of the Carolinas. As this occurs,
    lingering enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs and
    developing near-surface buoyancy may become conducive to widely
    scattered low-topped supercells with potential to produce tornadoes.

    ...Lower Colorado Valley vicinity...
    Strengthening wind fields associated with the approaching tropical
    system, coupled with the potential for an influx of high
    boundary-layer moisture content off the Gulf of California, probably
    supports at least a conditional risk for a tornado or two late
    Saturday night or early Sunday, if conditions come together
    favorably. At this point, given model spread, this potential still
    seems rather low.

    ..Kerr.. 10/09/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 17:19:02 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 031718
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 031716

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low over southern Canada is forecast to intensify as it
    traverses the northern and eastern Great Lakes. A leading shortwave
    trough will quickly move from the eastern Lakes into the Northeast,
    with an attendant portion of the surface cold front moving quickly
    offshore. The remainder of the front will gradually move southward
    with cooler temperatures and high pressure developing in its wake
    over the central US.

    Ahead of the front from east TX, to the Gulf Coast States and far
    eastern Atlantic shores, a seasonably warm and very moist air mass
    will support modest diurnal destabilization with MLCAPE generally
    less than 1000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected through
    the day ahead of the front and along typical sea-breeze boundaries.
    However, very weak mid-level lapse rates and little deep-layer shear
    suggests storm organization will be minimal. While a sporadic wet
    microburst is possible with the stronger forecast storm clusters
    (near and just offshore southern AL/FL Coasts), severe potential is
    expected to remain low.

    To the west, shortwave ridging will persist, forcing northwesterly
    flow aloft and stable conditions over much of the CONUS. Isolated
    thunderstorms may occur over a small part of central/southwest CO
    where cooler mid-level temperatures are expected near the higher
    terrain. However, minimal instability will limit storm intensity.

    ..Lyons.. 10/03/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 05:23:16 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 040522
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 040521

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will continue to deepen as it moves eastward across
    Quebec on Monday, with the speed max at the base of the trough
    sweeping across the Northeast. Behind this trough, northwest flow
    will persist from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, with a
    weak midlevel trough moving across the Great Basin.

    At the surface, a large area of high pressure will provide stable
    conditions to much of the central and eastern States, with the more
    substantial low-level moisture and instability relegated to the Gulf
    Coast area. Scattered thunderstorms will thus be possible along the
    northern Gulf Coast, and across much of Florida, though severe
    storms are unlikely.

    Elsewhere, sporadic lightning flashes may occur over parts of
    southern CO, and into parts of NV where cool air aloft will steepen
    lapse rates. Instability will be weak, as will low-level wind
    fields. A few strong gusts cannot be ruled out due to the deeply
    mixed boundary layer.

    ..Jewell.. 10/04/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 17:17:08 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 041717
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 041715

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley is
    forecast to intensify as it moves eastward into the Northeast States
    and offshore Monday. In the wake of the upper low, northwest flow is
    forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak
    shortwave trough will traverse the northern Great Basin on the
    periphery of ridging over the Southwest.

    At the surface, a cold front will continue to sag southward across
    the Gulf Coast with high pressure intensifying behind it over the
    Midwest. Stable conditions are forecast for much of the central and
    eastern States. Substantial low-level moisture and instability will
    be confined to the Gulf Coast and much of FL near the front.
    Scattered thunderstorms are possible, though poor lapse rates and
    little overlap with favorable deep-layer shear suggest severe
    potential is unlikely.

    Occasional lightning is possible over the northern Great Basin and
    central Rockies ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough.
    Instability will be weak, but steep mid-level lapse rates could
    promote some gusty surface winds with high-based
    showers/thunderstorms.

    ..Lyons.. 10/04/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)