Forum: Richard Fun House

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:44:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051744
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Far Southwest TX...Central and Southern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051743Z - 052330Z

SUMMARY...Developing scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected going through the afternoon hours.
Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible, and mainly for
the more sensitive burn scar and canyon areas along with dry
washes.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
some convective initiation taking place across the Sacramento
Mountains. The daytime heating cycle will continue to foster
additional boundary layer destabilization, and this coupled with
differential heating boundaries and terrain-driven circulations
should promote a gradual uptick in convective coverage with
scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Much of the current instability is over southern NM and far
southwest TX, and inclusive of areas near the Sacramento Mountains
and the Davis Mountains. SBCAPE avalues of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg are
noted across these areas. However, the monsoonal moisture
footprint across the region is relatively modest with PWs as high
as 1.25+ inches.

The latest hires model CAMs suggest a scattered convective
footprint with some potential for isolated 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals. Overall, the greatest rainfall totals should tend to be
near the Sacramento Mountains, however, some adjacent areas of
southern NM and far southwest TX will also have support for this
and especially with some storms being capable of being slow-moving
while producing some rainfall rates of 1.5 inches/hour.

An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist as a result going
through the afternoon hours. The more sensitive burn scar and
canyon areas along with dry washes will be most susceptible to
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XzfE2jacviXKMYrJA-RU7p93GGDJ-txNWNSKc2PZqPiU1F44zax57kSubCVrLhma5R60V0V-I6eZclGw-qlF9FA69U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34430671 34120501 31600401 30520329 29780359
29650449 30630572 31420665 31730814 32540880
33370844

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:47:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8vDuqr29apw118N3IGUTU3EapgbV3Y_yFlO52aBPjckqaX1WDr8OYsrEzCE6TTxI8RkAJleD-PqKNbN-4puYrSI_6Mo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 18:15:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zxcEsyxRDCnpl8x4X6i1BxF5kiv7qCngCjFUy4CubUPjGF3S80pA0JmQ5Tr4ScwKG7v8Q9fNQ9Z0_DCPOYEeWPYFys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 21:31:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052130
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-060326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the NE Panhandle/northeast CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052126Z - 060326Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are aligning/congealing along
a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle. Hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which may lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...There has been some consolidation of a line of
convection along a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle, which
both the 18z HREF/12z REFS indicated, to some degree, farther
south of its current location. CIN has eroded in its vicinity.
Precipitable water values are 1-1.25", fairly high for the High
Plains. ML CAPE is ~1500 J/kg in the vicinity of the convective
line, which lies along a north- south instability gradient. This
convection is also near the 15C isotherm at 700 hPa, which tends
to act as the edge of effective mid-level capping in the High
Plains. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts is organizing
convection.

The guidance indicates some south to south-southeast shifting of
this convective line with time and possible consolidation into a
small convective complex. This movement is at a significant angle
to the 850-400 hPa mean wind, 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern, and
forward propagation vectors. This could be due to the convection,
with time, creating a hole in the instability field which forces
activity into the southerly low-level inflow and the idea that CIN
never fully erodes to its east as 700 hPa temperatures are high
enough to cap lower elevations of the Plains. In any event, the
parameters above suggest hourly rain amounts to 2" with local
totals to 4" are possible. As this activity is straddling the
edge of the Sand Hills, flash flooding prospects are conditional.
Should this heavy rainfall occur outside of the Sand Hills or in
urban areas, flash flooding would be possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ZP3N-oj_mcV4D7tvZHTvJIxn-nNf-TvYyMB8SXLtViVPirUDlLXJ9kpP2US9XZSIO9q7LaRdMTx5Qyl_oUFhtbywgU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 43190258 42980179 41820159 40590191 40470333
41760379

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 02:58:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060257
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska &
Southern Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060300Z - 060800Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding remains possible for areas out
of Sand Hills or South Platte River Valley for a few more hours
before complex become forward propagating limiting duration at any
specific location.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows favorable mid to upper level
environment remains across the central High Plains as a subtle
shortwave lifts northeast across E WY along the northwest edge of
the larger scale ridge that is anchored along or just east of
100W. ML 6.9um also notes some higher cirrus with more of a
southwest to east-northeast orientation out of central CO toward W
KS. The combination of features continues to support strong
divergence pattern over Northeast CO into SW NEB, outflow
continues to strengthen due fed as a response to earlier
convective activity with AMV suggesting 60-70ks across the Sand
Hills into southern SD. As such, low level flow continues to
strengthen out of the south and southeast with 850mb flow around
25-30kts from the SE becoming strongly convergent in response to
the 850mb low forming across NE CO. Combine this with 700mb due
south jet providing further sub-tropical moisture connection per
CIRA LPW in the complex with slight confluence from southwesterly
700mb flow off the Front Range to further support short-term
back-building of convection toward the cyclone over the last few
hours. Outflow boundaries have gusted westward and 3.9um SWIR
loop and observations denoted the increase in overall moisture
with Tds in the 50s now back as far west as 82V and GXY, and some
60s as far west as AKO, IML and SYF. Total PWat estimates are
starting to reach 1.6-1.7" and with little sub-cloud evaporation,
rates are increasing to 1.5"/hr locally.

The back-building should start to reduce with time as forward
propagation should be drawing the convective cores eastward toward
06-07z. However, there remains a small window where back-building
southerly inflow at 850-700mb will counter strengthening
southeasterly inflow and cell residency may result from some
short-term periods of repeating or even cell mergers being within
the northeast (downshear) quadrant of the developing cyclone. As
such spots of 2-3" totals remain possible resulting in potential
for localized flash flooding. Hydrologically, the FFG values are
highly variable due to larger sand hills across SW NEB and
naturally absorptive soils in the broader South Platte River
Channel proper. However, there are still some rugged, rockier
locations across NE CO that will likely shed some of the higher
rate totals. As the complex forward propagates into stronger
southeasterly flow, overall totals should diminish across NW
KS...south-central NEB.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ACidGhqoCqoN8u-nxLzKT63cEIhkgW3oSnaMY3w3ZYF_0LeUsFjBNx1IqQ9-e1BbJTgQYNwqG60h19WaHFgaRls_z0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41750245 41460157 40940119 40490125 39950195
39760277 39930364 40410421 41050412 41560353

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 15:57:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061557
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Central/Eastern SD...Far Northeast NE...Northwest IA...Southwest MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061555Z - 062155Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the concentration of heavy showers
and thunderstorms can be expected going through the afternoon
hours. A growing threat for scattered areas of flash flooding will
exist which may include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The mid to late-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery
shows broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting
portions of central/southern SD and northeast NE, with separate
activity also noted more recently over parts of southwest MN and
adjacent areas of northern IA.

Much of the activity is associated with an ejecting shortwave
trough out across the central Plains which is gradually moving off
to the east while also interacting with a quasi-stationary front.
Warm air advection ahead of the shortwave coupled with a corridor
of strong elevated instability and the arrival of DPVA should set
the stage for a more expansive convective footprint by early to
mid-afternoon.

MUCAPE values near and just northeast of the stationary front are
on the order of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, and PWs are quite high with
values near 1.75 inches. This combination of moisture and
instability will support showers and thunderstorms with
increasingly heavy rainfall rates as stronger forcing/lift arrives
with the shortwave dynamics/divergent flow aloft.

The 12Z hires CAMs as a consensus supports rainfall rates capable
of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the expanding corridors of
stronger storms. However, the growing concern over the next
several hours will be slow cell-motions and a favorable
environment for backbuilding and locally training convection as
suggested by the Corfidi upwind propagation vectors.

Some rainfall totals by mid-afternoon may reach as high as 3 to 5+
inches given the high rainfall rates and slow cell-motions, and
this is supported by the consensus of the 12Z hires CAMs. These
high rainfall totals will generally favor 1 and 3-hour FFG
exceedance (30 to 50+ percent probabilities).

Therefore, the threat for at least scattered areas of flash
flooding is expected to increase with time, with an emphasis on
eastern SD into southwest MN and northwest IA. This will include
concerns for urban impacts, and especially for areas near Sioux
Falls.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JN6FKnpbDfdBmMquVwukJLfpE-h3b60MgqyNaIeqJ1V8-zC1t0V69OU63ZTPFtyPTTElclEUmBL-ARZzILMdYOlHO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DMX...FGF...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46079883 46029690 45589570 45129506 44289445
43219412 41579445 41119605 42279765 43539904
44370051 45540070

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:07:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061907
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...South Carolina into Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061904Z - 070104Z

SUMMARY...Increasing shower and thunderstorm development over the late-afternoon and early evening across South Carolina into
Georgia will lead to scattered instances of flash flooding as
rainfall rates reach between 2-3 inches per hour with the
strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...Current radar and satellite depictions note an
upstream shortwave migrating southeastward out of the Ohio Valley
with increased forcing within the western NC mountains down into
the Piedmont of the Carolinas as scattered thunderstorm activity
ensues over the area. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed
from western NC down through the SC Midlands to the SC coastal
plain with slow forward propagation to the south as high pressure
over the Great Lakes noses the front down east of the
Appalachians. Moisture and instability fields remain prime for
heavy rainfall prospects as PWAT anomalies between +1 to +2
deviations are situated along and south of the frontal boundary in
the Carolinas into northern FL. SBCAPE between 1500-3000 J/kg are
located across SC with some SBCAPE inferences of up to 4000 J/kg
are located along the southeastern GA coast leading to the
potential for significant convective cores capable of initiating
strong to locally severe thunderstorms over the back half of the
afternoon through the early evening time frame.

Increased low-level convergence along the front, as well as along
the immediate SC/GA coast thanks to a weak surface low positioned
100 miles off the coast of Charleston, SC will act as focal points
for convection as mean flow out of the northwest will lead to cell
motions generally down through SC with an anchoring near the
coastal plain as they approach a defined surface trough analyzed
along the SC/GA coastal plain. Latest RRFS/HRRR outputs indicate
cell initiation across SC forming between 19-20z with a blossoming
in the overall coverage shortly thereafter as temperatures in the
low-90s allow for a breach of convective temps situated around
90-92F as noted via the 12z RAOB from KCHS and 18z RAOB from KJAX.
Main convective mode will likely be multi-cellular as a lack of
sufficient shear will limit mesocyclone maturation, however, given
the overall buoyancy of the thermodynamic environment and
increasing favorable kinematics, strong to locally severe
thunderstorms will develop and produce high convective rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr for much of the aforementioned area.

12z HREF neighborhood probs for >3" over 6hrs are upwards of
60-90% for the time frame between 21-03z this evening over the SC
Midlands down through all of southeast GA into northeast FL with
HREFbm totals for the threat encroaching on 3-5" for the same
area. This signal is more than sufficient for scattered flash
flooding within those urbanized settings over the region with an
emphasis on places like Columbia, Charleston, and Beaufort in SC,
as well as Augusta to Savannah/Brunswick in GA given their more
favorable run off capabilities due to urbanization. Heavy
convection will be littered across the region with a general 1-2"
forecast with locally heavier totals upwards of 5" in the hardest
hit locations.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qmILs4jiVnzLGhUJruSyO1_VXiqXVV5pJjlIwy-vxQ6UVQok-wL-C-L4d93fKMk396mih25OdcI1Uqr0fKYi5PX-hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35168190 35138102 34878036 34118014 33497989
33007972 32677973 32388020 31668096 30138146
30638315 31728360 32648306 33698233 34778234

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 21:56:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062155
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Corn Belt into the Missouri River
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062153Z - 070353Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, will lead to a continued flash flood threat for
portions of the Corn Belt down through the adjacent Missouri River
Valley. Rainfall rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible
in the strongest thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy thunderstorm activity continues
across much of western Iowa up into neighboring South Dakota and
Minnesota this afternoon. Upper level setup remains favorable for
broad scale ascent within a diffluent region positioned over the
North-Central Plains to Upper Midwest thanks to the slow
progression of a strong upper trough navigating over the
Northwestern U.S. At the surface, intense low-level convergence is
occurring within a narrow corridor situated near and just east of
the Missouri River as a quasi-stationary front aligns north to
south between SD down into KS. A broad surface high over the Great
Lakes allows for a continued southeasterly flow on the western
fringes of the ridge, providing a more prevalent low-level
convergence signature in tandem with the stationary front in
place. Deep moisture advection and elevated theta_E's continue to
align in parallel to the frontal placement with MUCAPE firmly
between 3000-5000 J/kg according to the latest RAP mesoanalysis
over northwest MO through much of western IA. The setup remains
favorable for scattered to widespread heavy convective development
within that corridor of elevated theta_E's and PWATs bisecting the
region with much of the CAMs maintaining the posture into the
evening.

Convective modes will remain more pulse to multi-cellular
varieties, but the formidable instability axis and deep moist
profile lend to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
torrential rainfall rates and gusty winds that will exacerbate
flash flooding concerns where significant rainfall has already
occurred, and points further south as mid-level ascent becomes
more favored for areas of west-central IA down into northwestern
MO. Latest HRRR/RRFS combo is consistent in the signature of heavy
thunderstorm development within the narrow tongue of elevated
theta_E's centered just east of the Missouri River. Rainfall rates
between 2-3"/hr are likely in the strongest cell cores and with
mean flow generally out of the north to north-northwest, cells
will train or slowly wander over the same areas leading to
localized totals exceeding 3 inches with some CAMs members showing
upwards of 6 inches plausible in the setup. Despite some modest
FFG's over the region, rainfall rates and significant rainfall
totals will supersede majority of the antecedent dryness over the
area leading to a greater threat for flash flooding. Given the
current state of flash flood warnings already issued with the
environmental favorability continuing through the evening, flash
flooding is likely to continue to the aforementioned area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rgRiAhXDAIHEdS6NhNEBj4fLxR8JrAk7yfk0RMSasMbanj7LkDeN4yihU3gn78mpdWivACoOKTeeT_BQEx2mcF00MM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...MPX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43649577 43619511 43509459 43149407 42379382
41449364 40749345 39779338 38589337 38139408
38269520 39689591 40939638 41689650 42169655
42679662 43049667 43529640 43619606

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:28:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070527
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern WY...Southwest SD...Northern NEB
Panhandle....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070530Z - 071000Z

SUMMARY...Very strong moisture flux convergence and short-term
repeating downdrafts capable of 1.5-1.75"/hr rates moving into
naturally lower FFG values and may result in localized flash
flooding incident or two.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows a very strong dynamic upper-low
crossing E WA into E ID with a broad dry-slot across the Great
Basin. Strong dual jet structure over ID and core of of 100-120kt
jet over W WY is favorably arched to provide strong diffluence
along the eastern underside of the jet across the High Plains of
CO into E WY. Strong low-level response has been seen in VWP and
RAP analysis supporting 850-700 FGEN axis just east of the
Colorado Front Range northward along the E WY toward SE MT given
25-30kts of veered surface to 700mb flow (easterly to southerly).
As such, moisture is pooling along the FGEN fields with total PWat
values increasing to over 1.25" to 1.5" quickly over the next few
hours. The strong forcing acting on a pool of conditionally
unstable air across E WY/SW SD/NW NEB (2000-2500 J/kg) has
resulted in broader ascent that given the strong effective bulk
shear of 40-50kts has resulted in broader supercell/rotating
updrafts with cells given broade southeasterly inflow have started
with increased flanking line development. Further moisture flux
convergence due to supercell structures are broadening the inflow
field to inject more moisture to support increasing 1.5-1.75"/hr.

While deep layer steering from the southwest would normally result
in very quick motions, the rotation is also reducing forward speed
with some eastward deflection, allowing for the flanking line
development to orient favorably for short-term repeating/increased
residency in the near storm environment. As the cells move out of
the North Platte Valley into NW NEB/SW SD, the FFG values reduce
quickly with 1hr FFG values less than 1.5" and 3hr of 2-2.5".
Given potential for localized 2-3" totals due to short-term
training both FFG time periods become at risk of exceedance.
Though northern cell in Weston county is moving toward higher FFG
values in the Black Hills, the rugged granite topography could
still result in localized concerns given high runoff potential
(though this is, of course a lower potential than Niobrara to
Oglala-Lakota counties).

Forward propagation and northward shift of ideal divergence
support aloft toward the north should limit the longevity of the
developing cluster/complex over W SD toward 09z. However, there
is sufficient suggestion an isolated to widely scattered incident
or two of flash flooding remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LkzvreNaOTS-prem_sXCx0Zkk-xzUtFcH6SegyMvUb7Z8Zhz6v3Gvqafd65GCjBJ3CsZ5PeftbxMK62xzZZ04gid-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45200321 45040221 44540172 43420146 42670245
42220331 41960435 42320488 43060483 44040477
44500449 44910396

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 07:36:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070735
FFGMPD
MTZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...East Central Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070735Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Training/repeating cells along border with upstream
redevelopment due to approaching deep layer cyclone to support
strong cells capable of 1.5-2.5" in a few hours. Localized flash
flooding will be possible where training/repeating occurs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite denotes core of closed upper-level
low is shifting out of WA/OR into ID with modest negative tilt
orientation across the Northern Intermountain region of SW MT/W WY
and is slightly out of phase with southwesterly flow shortwave
though in a favorable manner for large scale ascent/cyclogenesis
across the Northern High Plains. This shortwave exists in the
split of the inner polar jet over SE ID and stronger 90kt jet
streaming across WY, resulting in strong downstream dPVA over SE
MT and increased divergence/diffluence noted by lower layer
baroclinic shield over central MT (along/west of 110W). As such,
surface to 850mb cyclogenesis is well on it way across SE MT/NE WY
and a sharp inverted trough exists northward through NE MT; west
of which stronger northerly/north-northeasterly flow is
strengthening providing solid moisture flux with 1.25" TPW
increasingly toward 1.4" Rosebud/Yellowstone county along the
northwest side of the surface low.

Above average theta-E air still retains heating from this
afternoon and with some steepening lapse rates results in an axis
of 1500-2000 J/kg of capped MLCAPE. Weaker capping near the
Canadian border with initial moisture flux convergence in the
850-700mb layer has maintained scattered supercells that have
advanced eastward out of Blaine into Phillips county.
Intersection with the divergence aloft and increasingly low level
moisture flux has seen an broadening of updrafts and upscale
growth of the complex. Steering flow has also reduced the
eastward propagation enough for increasing residency of modest
1.25-1.5"/hr rates. Though isolated personal weather stations
suggest stronger instantaneous/sub-hourly totals, near 1"/30
minutes. Slowing steering will also allow for some repeating in
the near term, so localized 1.5-2" with an isolated 2.5" becoming
possible. Naturally low FFG values <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs have
good possibility of locally being exceeded with potential for
localized incident(s) of flash flooding possible in the next few
hours.

As the negative tilt and shortwave lift northward, stronger
convection is expected to develop (as noted with a few cells
breaking out in Sweet Grass/Stillwater counties). While faster
moving, deeper layer moisture convergence along the north-south
oriented boundary between the convective line along 850-700mb
effective frontal zone may promote some repeating from south to
north and while likely less effective than storms north, rates of
1-1.25" are possible and streaks of 1-2" may also be possible. As
such, have expanded the area of concern within the
instability/moisture axis west of the surface low and along the
axis of lower FFG values as points of isolated flooding concerns
as well through 12z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lBN_xk125UwMxSHW9JLng5JMmbiRN5cCbnDuJxQUA1IE5B4C02ro0zoCeY20jRpyX6erZX1M_jUZp7cyb5x7uGP5QY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 49090858 49080748 49070525 48750537 47880609
46870676 45850801 45800955 46790892 47740867
48280873 49010881

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 08:26:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070825
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Iowa...Extreme Southeast South
Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070825Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Near stationary over-running cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr
rates and highly focused 2-4" totals across areas of reduced FFG.
Localized flash flooding remains possible through early morning.

DISCUSSION...A narrow window of weak but sufficient isentropic
ascent has broken out elevated convection across the narrow stripe
of recently affected areas where FFG values remain well below
normal and less than <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs. GOES-E 10.3um and
3.9um SWIR IR loops combined with VWP out of FSD/OAX denote rapid
veering with westerly 700mb winds at 20kts from the west are
fairly orthogonal to the SSE to NNW surface to 850mb frontal zone
across eastern NEB resulting in convergence around or just below
the 700mb level with increase in congestus eventually blossoming
to a few CBs in NW IA with further weaker more scattered
convection further south into SW IA. The orientation of the
boundary also resides on the NE side of a 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
(per RAP soundings) gradient that also aligns with the compromised
soil conditions. RAP CINH fields are still showing more CINH
further south and higher CAPE upstream into SE SD. A few TCu
exist there, but FFG values also rapidly increase across Yankton
to Miner counties; so have limited the areal extent for potential
additional flash flooding to those areas where FFG values remain
low.

Westerly winds are expected to remain but weaken slightly over the
next few hours, so most of the expected weakening past 12z will be
due to exhausting the remaining uncapped mid-level unstable air
upstream. With limited cell motion and inflow generally equal and
opposite to the mean steering from 700-400mb, cells are likely to
remain somewhat stationary with slight back-building possible. As
such, highly focused areas of 2-4" over the next 3-4 hours are
possible and given the low FFG, localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AuluJELOiNKgJHhkLuDmYGQQYYT2KREQRaswtVzjlp2cp5rPo6q5o9GSihxSOpzYKRdV1BY51yaAY9K5FBMexEpEV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43509698 43339595 42979523 42399451 41579402
40939447 41079541 42429639 43179712

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 15:20:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071519
FFGMPD
MTZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071518Z - 072115Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northwestern MT over the next 6 hours as an additional
1-2 inches of rain fall atop areas that have received heavy rain
over the past few days. Hourly rainfall totals are expected to
peak over 0.5 inches through 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 15Z showed a strong mid to
upper level low/trough advancing from north-central ID into
western MT. Out ahead of this feature was a west-east oriented
axis of heavy rain, noted on area radar imagery, with embedded
thunder, located from ~20 miles south of Cut Bank to ~40 miles
south of Havre. Gauge reports from within this axis of heavy rain
have shown 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain in and around Great Falls but
with much of that falling in about 15-30 minutes. The 12Z sounding
from TFX showed a precipitable water value of 1.01 inches, which
was near the climatological max for early September, but limited
MUCAPE of 235 J/kg. The strong dynamics corresponding to the upper
trough were making up for the lacking instability with left-exit
region upper level jet divergence and diffluence advancing through
west-central MT.

As the mid to upper-level low advances northeastward into
north-central MT through 21Z, weak elevated instability, locally
exceeding 500 J/kg, is forecast by the RAP to affect locations
from the northern Rockies into the upper Missouri Valley and the
U.S./Canadian border. A deformation axis is likely to become
better defined later this morning into the afternoon over
northwestern MT, containing stratiform moderate rain with embedded
cores of heavy rain and possible thunder.

Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches associated with the ongoing
northward moving axis of heavy rain over west-central MT will
continue to translate north over the next 2-3 hours while steady
moderate to heavy rain sets up to the west. Through the early
afternoon, additional pockets of heavy rain are expected into
parts of northwestern to north-central MT with hourly rainfall up
to ~0.5 inches and 6 hour totals in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Due to 1-3 inches of rainfall that has fallen over the past 2-3
days across portions of western MT, additional localized heavy
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches may result in localized areas of rapid rises/inundation within areas of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9CB-_bNsgCH8GlcCqwCjEqMlm1oV3KE7knuXs1v5LTbEREl6Hp6W8aBQJRtW04uX3YK5OhqIEgdPSB6x-axAItGHkJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49131247 49111025 49081007 48411002 48081041
47671219 47101316 47011386 47461491 48161548
48811547 49081533 49091529

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 19:32:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071932
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071930Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood concerns across the terrain and
adjacent valley areas of eastern Arizona and the northern and
western area of New Mexico. Flashier dry river beds and remnant
burn scars are the main areas of concern. Rainfall rates upwards
of 1 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon destabilization across portions of the
Southwestern U.S. will allow for the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over portions of AZ and NM. PWATs remain
elevated between 1.1-1.6" across the aforementioned areas with
instability fields becoming increasingly favorable as we move
through peak diurnal heating. Low shear, high SBCAPE on the order
of 1000-2500 J/kg across the region will provide a sufficient
environment for pulse convection and a few convective clusters
with the primary target over the eastern Mogollon Rim and the
terrain in-of western NM. Rainfall rates between 0.5-1"/hr in
stronger cells are forecast, but some intra-hour rates could
breach closer to 1.5"/hr which could provide more appreciable run
off capabilities as a result.

Primary concerns will be those flashier dry river beds and any
remnant burn scars over the area along with the typical urbanized
threats in towns across the area. HREF probs for >1" are modest
with the maxima (40-60%) located over west-central NM to the AZ
border where convection is currently developing. This correlates
with the progged higher SBCAPE location meaning some stronger cell
cores are possible during their maturation process.

Flash flood concerns will be isolated overall, but the threat
remains coincident with the MRGL risk ERO in place and solid
continuity of the threat in the recent CAMs.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4b3Pcn4Z7oyFJB3iUFwxYo_JhsS6JGmUGB89LKjjzv1fQJjCzgtiNpWZxYsAk-5uL-9rytOIJLLxTMZZ8BK48UBR0I8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36990520 36450450 35230648 34250701 33460741
32390828 31920856 31530919 31381058 31411115
31611226 31971295 33241165 34151127 35161081
35841016 36530889 36970761

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 01:31:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080130
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080728-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080128Z - 080728Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall likely across southeastern SD in the path
of a potent supercell likely to traverse the region. Rainfall
rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are likely in the storms path
leading to scattered bouts of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Rapidly intensifying supercell ahead of a slowly
progressing warm front over the Plains will become a focal point
for heavy rainfall prospects over the southeastern area of SD into
the quad state region encompassing MN/IA/NE. Current mesoanalysis
points to a suitable thermodynamic environment and effective bulk
shear between 40-50kts suitable for sustaining a prominent
mesocyclone over the region for likely several hours until the
warm front progresses through the area. Recent trends have noted a
rapid intensification of the supercell in progress with rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr as of the current obs.

Expectation is for heavy rain to focus within the path of the
supercell with a few more cells potentially developing over the
area due to increased forcing occurring from a shortwave ejection
out of the Front Range of WY. At the surface, the warm front will
slowly migrate eastward with the storms anchoring to the front in
question which will provide the necessary element to sustain an
abundant surface based forcing mechanism to keep cells
well-defined and lasting for several hours before dissipating.

Scattered flash flood concerns will last through the evening with
some guidance indicating lingering concerns into the early morning
hours. Rainfall totals between 2-4" with locally as high as 6" are
possible in the impacted area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_t01qirNZ6reF2CK1S09fZ2ErkTTmJUfGvWn4yhR-6TfxQ8Xk3vzV9jXlIvBLSvP7M8u_TFKKC_tS54zHz5sIXaoDec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44099606 43619560 43079574 42809641 42679718
42549825 42699889 42999900 43539840 43779780
43939693

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:27:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080627
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Northern Iowa...Southeast
South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080630Z - 081200Z

SUMMARY...Low-end flash flooding potential continues with
additional upstream development and repeating environment with
broad area of 1-2" totals with enhanced stripes of 2-3" embedded.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows fairly straight southwesterly
upper-level 100-110kts jet core from N CO/S WY across the ND/MN
line though the jet is also quite diffluent on the southern side
of the jet with best divergence maxima near the SE/IA/MN line
which is just downshear of an embedded shortwave approaching from
central NEB. As such, the low level flow has responded with 850mb
speed max of 50kts starting to intersect with a stronger cluster
of cells. The interaction has broadened into a west to east warm
advection wing with additional deep layer convergence expanding
convective development downstream across the MN/IA boarder (noted
by overshooting tops in the broadening cirrus canopy with -75C
temps). Additionally, low level moisture has pooled due to this
convergence with overall values nearing 2".

A broader axis of conditionally unstable air is oriented more
north to south with core of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across E NEB into NE
SD, though expanding eastward across S MN/N IA with sufficient
values 1250-1500 J/kg noted in RAP analysis to help maintain
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. Additional
upstream development across the Sand Hills of north-central NEB
near the shortwave will also lift into the western edge of the
ongoing convective area to repeat or potentially merge with
ongoing activity across SE SD. Scattered 1.75-2"/hr rates
embedded within the broader line of 1-1.5"/hr rates and generally
veered 700-400mb steering flow to support a broader area of
additional 1-2" totals with embedded streaks of 2-3" where
repeating/training or strongest cores could reside a bit longer.

Hydrologically, heavy rainfall over the last few days (including
heavy rainfall tonight over SE SD) have further reduced FFG values
across the area with an axis extending from Gregory/Charles Mix
county to NW IA with hourly FFG below 1.5" and 3hr below 2",
though this extends further across S MN/N IA with <2"/hr or
<2.5/3hrs as far east as Dodge/Mower, MN and Floyd county, IA.
As such, scattered incidents of localized flash flooding will
remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5THet9MGgR6pStNJWnP2g9OI2OMW2IpZoz62qTr0ueBsi9jjKyyqPxMFKtsKMatdKPDufiZ9vkq9kmKRxYYk5KyzGOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44259461 44169323 43579245 43139259 42809334
42599425 42499591 42509741 42699861 42959915
43419896 44019739 44169627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 20:50:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082049
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-090245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082047Z - 090245Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO over the next 6
hours. Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected but
with 15 minute rainfall up to 1 inch within the stronger/slowest
moving cells.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered monsoonal convection underway across the
higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim into the elevated terrain of
far southeastern AZ into NM. Total PWs across AZ/NM were fairly
similar as of 20Z, compared to this same time yesterday, with
standardized anomalies of +1 to +2. SPC mesoanalysis from 20Z and
18Z soundings from EPZ and ABQ showed instability was primarily
focused from far southeastern AZ into southern and eastern NM with
500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. The synoptic scale mid to upper-level
ridge was centered over KS/MO with the southwestern extension
across south-central AZ/NM, a bit north compared to yesterday at
this time, resulting in a broader coverage of weak deeper layer
mean flow of ~10 kt or less across NM/AZ.

Some minor westward expansion of the 500+ J/kg MLCAPE line is
expected over the next few hours with continued daytime heating
beneath mostly clear skies. Thunderstorm development will continue
to expand along areas of higher terrain before moving into some of
the lower elevations, driven by the mean steering flow and outflow
propagation from storm clusters that develop.

While an evolution similar to Monday is expected due to the fairly
similar parameters in place, locally greater coverage of 1+ inch
rainfall will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains into the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains due to weak steering currents
oriented parallel to the terrain and weakly backed low level flow
over eastern to southeastern NM. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected within the stronger cores along with potential for 15
minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. Any flash flooding that
occurs is expected to be isolated in coverage with impacts to low
water crossings, arroyos and locations of poor drainage. Spotty
total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with isolated 2+
inch totals possible through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zS6Zm3gDfXshvtrpaz2BQ44zrWIOjy9mMZsQS4uyf58LHJV53ULlYylbaiJxoKiHASanANWJHMG5fpiUgyZRW0EVSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37620374 37620296 37590229 37160210 36690301
35610408 34730484 32980542 31680647 31180795
31170899 31140991 31191047 31361105 31931111
32541082 33151054 33681029 34120989 34290919
34600848 35190771 35830706 36460624 37070564
37430503 37570444

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 22:59:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082258
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-090455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern NE into IA and southwestern
WI/northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082256Z - 090455Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is expected to become likely across
portions of central IA this evening into early tonight, with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and 6-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches
(isolated higher rates/totals possible). Surrounding locations of
eastern NE into southwestern WI and northwestern IL may also
experience flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...2230Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms extending along a surface
trough/differential heating boundary that extended from central IA
into southeastern NE, located southeast of a larger scale
quasi-stationary front. Outflow was observed to be slowly
propagating southward/southeastward across southeastern NE into
southwestern IA. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms were located
north of this region from eastern NE into north-central IA. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
along and just south of the trough/differential heating boundary
along with a bubble of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE in south-central IA.

Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest that the low level jet
will begin to increase across eastern KS into northwestern
MO/southern IA around 00Z, with S to SSW 850 mb wind speeds
expected to reach 30-40 kt by 04Z. The increasing overrunning
component of the low level flow will support the continued
development of nocturnal thunderstorms from eastern NE into
central IA and downstream locations of WI/IL. Storm motions are
expected to parallel an axis of low level convergence, supporting
training rounds of heavy rain, containing hourly rainfall of 1 to
2+ inches.

Portions of western IA have received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over
the past 2-3 days which has increased soil moisture values and
reduced infiltration capabilities of additional heavy rainfall.
Flash flood guidance (FFG) for this portion of IA was 1.5 to 2.5
inches in 3 hours with surrounding areas to the west and east
containing 3-hr FFG values of about 2-3 inches. While the location
of the southern-most overrunning boundary and low level jet
orientation may focus the heaviest rainfall east of the lower FFG
values of western IA, the setup still appears likely to favor
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding later tonight.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7U2woauqqyLtW7aizDxlTOhuQ-cobZUhT-eKY6wyhN1u8NlZX7FKwjxqGvzK4ddY0XxEPPftN5DUwPTdlxjnR_e_uk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43309046 43238981 42758932 42208956 41668991
40979173 40589522 40769728 41389776 41889745
42279616 42529425 43019188

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 00:45:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090044
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-090635-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1226
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090042Z - 090635Z

SUMMARY...Brief training and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches may
result in isolated flash flooding from portions of eastern CO into
western KS through 06Z.

DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite and radar imagery from KPUX showed
showers and thunderstorms moving east off of the central Rockies
into the High Plains as of 0020Z with the strongest region across
northern Pueblo County with cloud tops that continued to expand
and cool. 00Z surface observations showed southeastern to eastern
CO was in a post-frontal environment with easterly/upslope flow in
place. KPUX VAD wind and RAP analysis data showed that the
easterly winds of 10-20 kt extended up 4-5 kft above the surface,
veering toward a unidirectional WSW direction in the mid to upper
levels.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z showed MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg from
southeastern CO into western KS (highest to east) but with at
least weak CIN over the entire region. However, as
showers/thunderstorms continue to advance farther east into the
High Plains, moistening of lower level profiles within the upslope
flow may help the development of pockets of uninhibited elevated
instability across portions of eastern CO into western KS.
Kinematic profiles suggest that individual cells and/or any
clustering of storms should translate eastward at a progressive
pace. However, there is some potential for convective development
out ahead of any thunderstorm activity advancing eastward through
southeastern CO, setting up potential for short term training. The
environment will be capable of 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall and
the isolated potential for 2-3 inch totals. Given the fairly low
flash flood guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours over
much of eastern CO into western KS, an isolated exceedance or two
may occur through about 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vy-o45OKAmKHm1RHLCH4MbdLH-5WHCqc4nEayHTq1fmntn6iz2S2eYRcijVdhWxFbiV8GcRZRet95GrwwoQMKSAaig$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39360165 39120132 38650129 38060186 37750255
37540372 37560471 37980513 38430512 38750482
39050409 39350269

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 04:52:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090452
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northwest
Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090450Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding potential continues. New
upstream development shows potential for repeating across areas
recently affected with additional 2-3" totals. Leading edge,
higher rates may still pose localized risk due to higher 2"/hr
rates.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR shows elongated convective complex
across much of Iowa, with leading bow echo near a meso-low along
the Mississippi River southwest of the Quad Cities remains fairly
potential with strong moisture flux convergence helping to broaden
the width of the bow for increased overall duration while it still
remains forward propagating. However, it is starting to move into
a more stable regime over N IL where inflow is less humid/unstable
with lower 60s Tds likely to be fed into the complex. Still a
hour or so more of 1.5-2"/hr rates may result in localized urban
flooding concerns. However, the upstream environment remains
conditionally unstable with solid isentropic ascent pattern for
continued development.

However, much of the environment has stabilized, there does remain
some increased unstable air between frontal zones across southern
NEB and through IA which is intersected by a north-south axis of
500-1000 J/kg of CAPE across western MO along an older frontal
zone, with total PWats over 2". CIRA LPW shows most of this area
as the enhanced moisture stream connected to the Pacific
sub-tropics along the northwest edge of the larger scale ridge
with very high moisture denoted in the 700-500mb layer along with
surface to 850mb showing higher values (Tds in the low to mid
70s). However, south of the front lower Tds and a wedge of drier
air can be seen through the 850-700 and 700-500mb across SE KS
through KC Metro toward N MO; so though stronger confluent 850mb
flow is the driver of isentropic ascent there may be some negative
dry air entrainment into the cells. This may be the reason for
the more stringy/tendril appearance to the convective cells across
W IA. Still, the length of the axis with embedded stronger cores
in an ideal training (west to east) environment with strong
southwest to southerly deep layer convergence should still
maintain the scattered ascent pattern with repeating elements
across S IA to be expected. Overall rates given some of the dry
air entrainment may be a bit more limited than seen earlier with
the initial line, but scattered 1.25-1.5" streaks and 1-3 hours of
repeating across areas having received 1-3" may start to exceed
the longer 3-6 hr FFG values which are 2-3" or 3-4", respectively.
As such, localized flash flooding may be possible but likely
limited in overall areal coverage and be more widely scattered in
nature through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QVqTvHVVyVCfZXYPqai_9cP5lpo54kumZvFOfXYHSySz5S9-vtkaylP9ioM_P65MEnN6CZW4TeDnzgbtU-yAlLJJwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42149161 42089051 41858979 41418965 40998998
40649070 40589212 40599417 40629568 40719654
41069691 41559656 41829554 41929443 42059296
42109232 42109202

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 09:27:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090927
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northern Missouri...Northwest Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090930Z - 091500Z

SUMMARY...Repeating scattered shallow thunderstorms with ability
for 1.5"/hr and additional 1.5-2.5" totals continue to pose
possible isolated to widely scattered low-end flash flooding,
mainly as cells move into areas less affected further south.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um WV suite continues to show a persistent
WSW to ENE corridor of enhanced deep layer moisture along the
northwest edge of synoptic ridge that dominates the
Mid-Mississippi and Southeast. Additionally, a northern stream
shortwave is digging through the Dakotas with an attendant cold
front through MN to NW IA into Nebaska; further narrowing/
corralling the deep layer moisture axis. RAP analysis and GPS
data shows core of 2-2.25" total PWATs remain over SE NEB into W
IA though localized profiles and CIRA LPW continue to show a core
of drier air along the SW interface of the subtropical moisture
plume from E KS toward NE MO. Still, strong confluent low level
jet from 30-40kts from 850-700mb continues to support isentropic
ascent and upstream convergence for upstream redevelopment, though
there are some hints that 700mb winds are veering a bit further
suggesting eastward motion of the is redevelopment region may be
expected over the next few hours.

The upwind environment also appears to have retained some unmixed, conditionally unstable air with axis of 750-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
generally coincident with moisture axis. Some air appears to be
overturning with new scattered development over far SE NEB into SW South-central IA with new scattered/cooling tops noted in 10.3um
EIR imagery. This is similar along the main training axis further
north over E NEB into W IA, though coverage is more scattered in
nature than earlier overnight. Downstream the lack of remaining
instability due to multiple rounds appears to be leading to
general warming and broadening of more moderate shield
precipitation across central to E IA, though regional RADAR shows
some stronger bowing segments into SE IA. As such, rain rates
will be further reducing to 1-1.3"/hr with a few occasional
transient spots of 1.5"+/hr possible.

As such, a streak or two of 1.5-2.5" in 2-3 hours will remain
possible. This may still intersect the recently saturated/flooded
areas along and just south of I-80 though trends suggest the best
remaining instability and moisture convergence would be a county
or two south where higher FFG and drier ground conditions exist
more likely resulting in beneficial rains. However, any
intersection with more saturated areas, including from prior days
(SW IA into far NW MO) still present a low-end potential of
exceedance for isolated to widely scattered but localized
incidents of flash flooding through early daybreak.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8YVkdUHPERZ1bzOAcjyjTWEf6SK_TRgaXU6hp4HKgP5dv3PzI7djKmcuAxgr6ZlqOKNEhh9rYrgN-GhcjkDBZJvdO90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41809129 41649010 41258940 40718947 40269033
40139239 40099431 40079643 40209714 40949713
41319524 41589347 41749205

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 23:01:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 282300
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Chihuahuan Desert and Sacramento Mountains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282258Z - 290458Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters over the northern Mexican state of
Chihuahua will continue to shift northeast over far west Texas and
southern New Mexico through this evening. Heavy rainfall should
cause isolated flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and
sensitive terrain to 05Z.

DISCUSSION...As of 23Z...Moisture plumes from the western Gulf and
the tropical eastern Pacific are converging southwest of El Paso
where thunderstorm clusters have formed. This activity is in an
area of rising PW (1.6", potentially reaching 1.75" after 00Z) and
ample instability (SBCAPE of 2000 J/kg) which is promoting heavy
rain. Unidirectional SWly flow is aiding repeating cells as they
slowly approach the southern NM and far western TX borders.
Instability is currently limited above the Mexican border, but the
strong advective flow, and presence of a surface trough extending
north from the clusters should bring enough across the border to
warrant a likely flash flood threat, with possible considerable
impacts for this evening.

Recent RRFS runs limit heavy rain along or south of the border
while recent HRRRs advect heavy rain through far western TX and
south-central NM through the Sacramento Mountains through 05Z.
Since the sensitive El Paso metro area is in play from both pieces
of guidance, flash flooding is considered likely.

Further heavy rain is expected through this area and beyond
overnight, so expect further discussions and potentially greater
impacts from flash flooding.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8SWzFZ543Eqfd9BODnLa0EetZ0S52xWR34ij5U1S8DjiEJmKzMnILyw0kPsDLs1u9XQu1kODazJ4isB9fm-Zd7d4pwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33900539 32650535 31280471 30180417 29540450
29920563 31040674 31120799 32200837 33180754
33870684

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 23:31:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 282331
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-290529-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Arizona into Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282329Z - 290529Z

SUMMARY...A slow moving line of heavy thunderstorms will continue
to drift east from the Mohave Valley, northwestern AZ, and central
Utah through this evening. Repeating activity should allow for
continued rainfall totals of 1 to 2, local 3 inches through 05Z.

DISCUSSION...Tropical moisture from Polo and Odalys continue
streaming northeast over the Southwest with PW of 1.2" through
Lake Mead and an axis continuing northeast from there through
southern Utah. Instability is sufficient with SBCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg along a line of thunderstorms from the Mohave Valley through
northwest AZ and south0central Utah.

Deep layer, unidirectional SWly flow downstream of a mid-level low
over southern CA will continue to slow the eastward progression of
this line as it continues to redevelop. Repeating rounds of
thunderstorms will continue to allow hourly rates to exceed 1
inch. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs highlight that additional 2 to
locally 3 inches should continue, particularly in Arizona. These
high rain rates will continue to cause scattered flash flooding,
particularly for low water crossings, slot canyons, burn scars
and/or other areas of poor drainage. Both CAMs have this activity
waning after 05Z, so subsequent discussions may not be needed for
this area overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-MEPs2_7YepNejpJj2xqNu8uOndFItzIwS1WW_KlZMyohxAzDNDHGmkLriz3JGXufJaZULZ1sca5Urj72Y71v1BwRdQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40001026 39910950 38940915 36951104 34961303
34201484 35461466 36941357 38101263 39311155

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 05:32:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050531
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-050900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1450
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AL into southwestern GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050528Z - 050900Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving areas of heavy rain may result in localized
areas of flash flooding from southeastern AL into southwestern GA
through 09Z. Hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2 inches (locally
higher possible) are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMXX showed a slow moving cluster
of showers producing heavy rain over southeastern AL at 05Z,
centered roughly 30-50 miles north of Dothan. The cluster was
largely warm-topped with 10.3 micron imagery showing -40 to -50 C
within the coldest cloud tops in the immediate area, containing a
history of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches, but
occasionally exhibiting higher hourly values near 3 inches via
MRMS over Barbour County. The higher rates were embedded within an
axis of anomalous precipitable water represented by 2.1 to 2.3
inches via the 05Z SPC mesoanalysis. The area of heavy rain was
focused just ahead of a low to mid-level vorticity max observed on
shortwave IR imagery and RAP analyses, over southeastern AL.
Locally enhanced low level flow just ahead of the vorticity max
was focusing added convergence along a WSW to ESE boundary that
extended from southern AL into south-central GA.

As te low to mid-level vorticity max edges east over the next
couple of hours, the relatively stronger southerly low level flow
over southeastern AL should shift into southwestern GA, with slow
moving areas of heavy rain following suit over the next 1-2 hours.
Continued hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) is
expected, although waning instability is forecast by the RAP over
the next 4 hours with slightly drier air moving in from the north.
Localized areas of flash flooding will be possible from parts of
southeastern AL into southwestern GA through 09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vp_V1azCNO-BBkDHJLqorkKF3-666P3RmCGD6F_vzDXORidoBfmeSJqT05mWII1rSBtzfdx8ATZIt90jNKinIUgDUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32458459 32398358 32238327 31788323 31438414
31158571 31228630 31828607 32178580 32368526

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 07:16:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050715
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051310-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1451
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...far southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050713Z - 051310Z

Summary...Occasional training and repeating rounds of
showers/thunderstorms are expected to maintain a localized flash
flood threat over far southern TX over the next 3-6 hours. Peak
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (isolated 3+) will be possible.

Discussion...Area radar imagery from 0645Z showed a broken axis of
showers and thunderstorms extending from offshore of the middle TX
coast into Willacy and Cameron counties. The storms were located
along an elevated axis (~925 mb) of convergence that was largely
continuous from the western Gulf into far southern TX. Over the
past 2-4 hours, radar imagery showed showers and thunderstorms
tracking southwestward from the western Gulf across Padre Island
into far southern TX, with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches at times. The higher rates have struggled to move west of
roughly 15 miles inland from the lower Laguna Madre due to a lack
of instability to the west. The SPC mesoanalysis from 06Z showed
that MLCAPE did not look much different than 00Z, with an
instability gradient along the far southern coast of TX with less
than 500 J/kg over western Willacy and Cameron counties and 1500+
J/kg just east of South Padre Island.

Little change to the overall pattern is expected through 13Z with
the convergence axis allowing for occasional bursts of
shower/thunderstorm activity, which should track southwestward,
overlapping some of the same locations that have been experiencing
heavy rain. While repeating rounds of heavy rain have occurred
over the past few hours, there remains some potential for very
high hourly rainfall totals (2 to 3+ inches) should cells align
with the mean steering flow from NE to SW, supporting training.

Multi-sensor MRMS data from 06Z indicated 24 hour rainfall totals
of 4 to 6+ inches across eastern Willacy and Cameron counties.
These same locations are expected to receive an additional 2 to 4
inches (locally higher) over the next 6 hours, with potential for
overlap into the Harlingen to Brownsville corridor. Localized
flash flooding will remain possible through 13Z with a particular
focus across urban or other poorly draining areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tfHi2ACHm0Sg2AgfXWYq_QikVSDAys_6w5hJ_OIxY0QkEidAi5ruzbUtVBDCwx5BkFPUFWYTZx5sCu1l9jDDelo3rA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26799721 26579713 26109697 25879693 25689737
25719756 25919775 26069808 26609792 26769753

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 09:23:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050922
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-051415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1452
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
521 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AL, southwestern GA and the FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050920Z - 051415Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will continue to be possible
across portions of southeastern AL into southwestern GA and
portions of the FL Panhandle through 14Z. Peak hourly rainfall of
2 to 3+ inches will be possible at times, but the coverage of
these higher rates should remain limited.

DISCUSSION...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery has
shown a persistent area of cold cloud tops with occasional
lightning extending southward from the coast of the FL Panhandle
into the open waters of the Gulf over at least the past 6 hours.
Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and rainfall totals of 2-4
inches (locally higher rates/totals) have been reported across
Escambia to Walton counties over the past 6 hours ending 09Z,
mainly south of I-10. Farther north, a combination of satellite
and radar imagery showed a slow moving area of heavy rain
extending from southeastern AL into southwestern GA, containing
MRMS-derived 6-hr totals of 3 to 6+ inches and peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches. The lack of lightning and colder cloud
tops across southeastern AL into the western FL Panhandle is
attributed to a dominance of warm rain processes within a very
moist environment containing PWs of 2.1 to 2.4 inches. Instability
however, was fairly limited with the 08Z SPC mesoanalysis showing
500 J/kg of MLCAPE along the immediate Gulf Coast from AL to the
FL Panhandle, with values dropping off into the 100-500 J/kg range
for inland locations of the FL Panhandle into southern AL/GA.

The areas of heavy rain were located near and ahead of a 700 mb
shear axis that extended from the southern SC/GA border to the LA
coast, with embedded vorticity maxima along the axis. 925-850 mb
flow was oriented from the south at 10-20 kt (RAP estimated) from
just south of the western FL Panhandle into southeastern AL and
southwestern GA, with isentropic ascent from the warm Gulf waters
(mid 80s SSTs) to inland locations (low to mid 70s surface
temperatures). In addition, a well-defined low level convergence
axis was helping to focus higher rain rates from southeastern AL
into southwestern GA. Aloft, lift was being augmented within the
right-entrance region of an upper level jet max oriented WSW to
ENE across northern MS/AL.

Across AL into GA, RAP forecasts show veering of the low level
flow through 12Z which should allow the low level convergence axis
to weaken along with some decrease in the already weak
instability. However, farther south across the western FL
Panhandle, southerly onshore flow of 10-20 kt is forecast to
continue over a good portion of the FL Panhandle for several more
hours which should continue to support periods of heavy rain with
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, but possibly with hourly values as
high as 2 to 3+ inches. Both coastal and inland locations will
continue the threat for localized flash flooding over the next 3-5
hours, with additional rainfall totals over 4 inches on an
isolated basis possible through 14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Ej8MZ96BpBWyd_jEJvSrT7tcL1v3nwg_xYgczpH65uCzsNGL00LuedeipwZKkTd6gk_WZSR9sjE5P6aKaZ2Xi_Hais$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32278379 32248325 32118299 31898286 31698275
31318285 30828333 30378362 30018388 29668453
29508534 29958602 30138649 30148694 30528710
30818682 31238655 31478633 31778591 31978550
32068513 32148470

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 12:49:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051249
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1453
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...Extreme Southern Tip of South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051250Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...Extremely narrow band of repeating/training showers with
embedded stronger thunderstorms capable of quick 2"/hr.
Possibility of additional 2-4" mainly along/just off coast.

DISCUSSION...Persistent tropical band of showers and occasional
embedded deeper convective cores remains in close proximity to the
far southern tip of Texas with little variation expected over the
early morning period. Aloft, a stronger tropical wave is
progressing through the Bay of Campeche into the Eastern Mexican
coast providing an outflow channel aloft with 30-50kts of flow,
weakly curved anticyclonically to further diffluence and broad
scale vertical ascent. The surface front continues to remain
fairly stationary and just off-shore, though there is a weak
surface to 850mb wave near 26.5N 96.5W but may not be drifting
southeasterly. Though due to curvature of the coast, confluence
remains solid enough and with deep layer moisture over 2.7",
rainfall efficiency capability will remain in enough proximity to
suggest 2"/hr rates would be possible with transient convective
cores if they develop. Gradient of instability with maximum of
1500 J/kg just a few miles off coast, even in a deeply saturated
profile suggests that vertical development may occur even with
typically weak convergence. As such the risk of excessive
rainfall capable of maintaining flooding or increasing to rapid
inundation flooding remains possible for the early morning through
afternoon; though current trends hint toward a weak lull, this may
change hour by hour and potential for 2-4" totals through 18z keep
potential for flash flooding possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!81wNcFxxIhqHFBfZgnhD58jWGBf675_9P2zjj4J1R2OSR58KOYiJBShQLNs9z5hXYZCOl0mNYO04BNFk9MlafLP08ZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26499731 26439718 26039708 25869718 25809735
25849756 25979761 26239752

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 16:11:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051610
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1454
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern Georgia...Northern Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051610Z - 052200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially repeating/back-building cells
in a very saturated atmosphere and soil conditions may support
localized or reaggrivation of rapid inundation flooding.
Additional 2-4+" totals and rates over 2.5"/hr remain possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and 10.3um EIR show a few cooling
clusters in proximity to the deep layer moisture axis and
stationary frontal zone across northern Florida and southern
Georgia, generally located at the coast where instability is
greatest and is expected to increase further with filtered
insolation. 16z surface analysis denotes a developing surface
wave near ECP in the FL Panhandle and a secondary likely between
Valdosta and Waycross, GA, with the stationary front extending
eastward into the Georgia Bight. Each wave is providing
increased downstream moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
higher 2000 J/kg and 1500 J/kg, respectively instability pools to
feed the currently shallow convection. However, deep layer trough
is flattening but also exiting toward the northeast across
southern GA, helping to drive some surface circulation and FGEN
due to strengthening northerly flow along the Atlantic coast.
This is concurrently resulting in increased confluent upstream
flow into the Bay/Gulf county coastlines further supporting
convergence with increasing 15-20kts of inflow.

While cells in SE GA into the Atlantic are expected to be more
progressive, there are a few of them already along the front in a
favorable orientation for repeating/training in the near term and
while not fully capable of the full potential of 2.5-3"/hr rates
(given total PWats of 2.5"+), the shallow cells have had some
suggestion of 1.5-2"/hr potential and while moving over swampier
areas, streak of 2-4" totals with recently saturated upper soils,
suggest at least some inundation flooding potential will be
possible over the next few hours, especially near/in urban centers
that along I-95.

Further west, the concern is greater for localized rapid
inundation, mainly due to the higher urbanization, but the
strengthening onshore/confluent flow and frictional convergence
will allow for redevelopment upon the upwind edge of the
convective clusters. Deep layer flow parallel to the boundary as
well as increasing surface temperatures downstream into southern
GA/northern FL will help to increase modest instability for
convective maintenance. The repeating of 2-2.5"/hr rates
suggests localized 3-4" are more probable into the early
afternoon, with some aggressive 12z CAMs even as high as locally
6-7", while this seems less likely, the available moisture is
clearly there and even slight increase in surface heating within
the deeply saturated profile could quickly escalate MLCAPE values
and therefore vertical loading to support 3"/hr rates.

All considered, with deep layer moisture, modest instability and
favorable training profiles crossing an already saturated ground,
localized incidents of flash/rapid inundation flooding are
considered possible; though confidence in any given location is
below average, but slightly better along the coastal and with
urban sites.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LQT4bEFW_4DBQAsqPVZZdsDU-OSlJdQmFY65CWEjob0RJRGCswXB-9BG46qCobVBf8FIlOhffEItvvypkXV-PIRYAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31728185 31668098 31148126 30388149 30098298
29918396 29598496 29618540 30008573 30458610
30988513 31518344

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 03:47:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060347
FFGMPD
FLZ000-060900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1146 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060345Z - 060900Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will remain possible across the
central FL Peninsula, including the Forgotten Coast through 09Z.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches will be possible.

Discussion...0330Z radar imagery showed heavy showers lingering
across Apalachee Bay into the north-central FL Panhandle, located
east to northeast of a 925-820 mb low located ~70 miles west of
Apalachicola. MRMS showed a recent history of hourly rainfall
totals of 2 to 3+ inches over the northeastern Gulf with up to an
inch along I-10 to the northwest of Tallahassee. Precipitable
water values were estimated at 2.3 to 2.4 inches across the
central FL Peninsula while MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg was limited to
the immediate coastal locations of Gulf and Franklin counties via
the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis, with instability dropping off rapidly
toward the north.

The 925-850 mb low is forecast to retrograde slowly toward the
west over the next 3-6 hours while an axis of low level moisture
transport remains focused into the Forgotten Coast. Low level
convergence and confluence into the region atop diffluent flow in
the upper levels should allow for the redevelopment of showers,
with possible embedded thunder, across coastal locations of the
central FL Peninsula over the next few hours.

The environment will be supportive of hourly rainfall of 2-4
inches near the coast, although these higher rates may remain
quite isolated and/or remain just offshore. Farther north,
overrunning and lighter rainfall rates (likely less than 1 in/hr)
will continue at times with slow movement. Portions of the region
have received heavy rain over the past 48 hours which has left
soils saturated in many locations. Therefore, while the coverage
of higher rainfall rates may remain isolated in coverage, some
flash flooding may result, especially with overlap of urban or
otherwise poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4BbTnDq65XYDnHS7yFC2IU0EFAh7EW275wyY5Gy3WaQL6ngFijpl67pz5OMR-EPViuDz1mvhzcb5hAQZMFAZChZOAfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30708509 30498468 30358434 30048412 29768407
29458425 29268464 29228507 29428563 29728592
30198620 30688581

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 02:45:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290245
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1044 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...North Dakota into Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290243Z - 290800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a stationary
front will increase in coverage and intensify overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows a slow
expansion of reflectivity aligned west to east across North Dakota
and into Minnesota. This activity is blossoming along a stationary
front analyzed by WPC, and in response to an increasing 850mb LLJ
analyzed via VWPs and measured via the SPC RAP to be 30-35 kts
from the south. This LLJ is originating from a plume of impressive thermodynamics characterized by PWs above 1.4 inches and MLCAPE as
high as 1000 J/kg, with the resulting southerly inflow driving
convergence and isentropic ascent to drive the increasing
convection. Weak impulses embedded within SW flow ahead of a
mid-level trough are additionally providing the impetus for lift,
and this developing convection has already resulted in MRMS hourly
rainfall as high as 1.25".

The high-res CAMs are in good agreement that activity will
continue to expand and intensify overnight, despite some
differences in the placement of the heaviest rainfall. Impressive
850-700mb LPW surging northward will impinge into the front as it
wavers across the area, suggesting convective development will
repeatedly occur in close proximity to this boundary. This
activity will likely exhibit training as mean 0-6km winds align to
the front, with some backbuilding expected thanks to the
accelerating inflow leading to veering Corfidi vectors back into
the more robust thermodynamics. With rainfall rates expected to be
1-2"/hr (30% chance of 2"/hr from the HREF), this could result in
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts exceeding 4". As the
shortwave trough sweeps eastward, this should eventually help push
activity more into MN leading to additional flash flood potential
downstream, but the greater risk appears to focus over southern
and eastern ND.

0-40cm soil moisture across ND is generally below the 20th
percentile, while recent rainfall has been greater over MN leading
to higher antecedent soil moisture. However, FFG is generally
consistent at 1-1.5"/3hrs, for which the HREF exceedance
probabilities reach above 50% (and above 80% for the 2-yr RIs).
This suggests that even in areas that have been dry during the
past 7-10 days, an isolated to scattered flash flood risk exists
where any training of these intense rain rates can occur.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7qVKd-TCiFzlk0-PX5SlIEilmyGAxn6yeUN56ThRVQB95ouChB8ZG3BM_8ZOSP9gGC9esJP6jQXgxZV7yW0gX0qj5yM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48719331 48559272 48099318 47509402 46729547
46009753 45999927 45970178 46220281 46870323
47390287 47560211 47690067 48029807 48119711
48519438

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 03:39:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290339
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1391
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1138 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...South Dakota, northern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290337Z - 290900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold
front will track E/NE overnight with rainfall rates reaching 1"/hr
at times. Through training, this could produce 1-3" of rain,
leading to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR satellite imagery this evening shows
the onset of cooling cloud tops embedded within a larger cloud
shield across South Dakota. This is indicative of deepening
convection, which is additionally noted via expanding elevated
reflectivity on the regional radar mosaic. This fresh convection
is a result of increasing deep layer lift through intensifying
upper diffluence within the RRQ of a jet streak combined with
subtle height falls and PVA downstream of a shortwave exiting from
Nebraska. This ascent is acting upon favorable thermodynamics for
heavy rainfall, as PWs measured by GPS of 1.2 to 1.4 inches
overlap a ribbon of MUCAPE measured via the SPC RAP of 500-1000
J/kg.

During the next few hours, thunderstorm development is expected to
expand across SD and dig into parts of NE as well. This will be in
response to a persistent 30kt LLJ arcing northward ahead of an
approaching cold front to draw impressive thermodynamics
northward. The high-res CAMs suggest generally scattered activity
tonight, but 30-40 kts of bulk shear may allow for storm
organization into clusters to enhance the rainfall threat.
Regardless, there is moderate to high confidence in at least 1"/hr
rain rates developing (40-60% chance from both the HREF and REFS)
with scattered higher rates probable within any organized
clusters. This has the potential to yield 1-3" of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts where short-term training can lengthen the
duration of heavy rain.

FFG across the region is generally 1-1.5"/3hrs, although much
higher over the Sandhills of NE. While there is some disagreement
between the REFS and HREF probabilities as to where the heaviest
rainfall will occur overnight, the general axis occurring from the
Sandhills northeast into central SD suggests a relatively lower
vulnerability across NE, supported additionally by greater FFG
exceedance probabilities in SD. This implies a higher risk for at
least isolated flash flooding over parts of SD through the
overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9iFk5cd0a5I-gCMw5mRod-YikuMAAQ009yYuOADTr47XHOlYPPnV6siHpfTXbyLVW88xm3LLm5OLhiJy9_0f_fHfG7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...CYS...FSD...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46089892 45939813 45099798 44089846 43559882
42989946 42650054 42530155 42420291 42900300
44230238 45480173 45950078

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 05:20:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290520
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-291115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1392
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Low Deserts of California through Southern
Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290517Z - 291115Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand across
the low deserts of California and Arizona through the overnight
hours. This activity may result in hourly rainfall as high as
1.5", leading to additional instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this evening depicts an
impressive plume of moisture spilling northeast downstream of an
anomalous upper low spinning over southern CA. This enhanced
moisture, reaching above the 95th percentile within the 700-500mb
and 500-300mb layer according to CIRA, is being advected northward
from tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo positioned
near Baja California Sur. Convection has been ongoing much of the
evening near the CA/NV/AZ borders associated with 700mb
convergence, and an outflow boundary emanating from the earlier
activity is providing a focus for additional ascent and new
thunderstorm development. Hourly rainfall within this new
convection has already reach 0.5"-1" according to MRMS within this
extreme moisture plume.

Activity so far this evening has been mostly confined due to a
lack of meaningful instability. However, recent SPC RAP analyses
suggest that the persistent and unidirectional SW flow in the
low-to-mid levels have begun to draw higher MUCAPE northward to
support renewed development into AZ. This suggests that convection
will begin to rapidly develop as height falls, mid-level thickness
diffluence, upper divergence, and this increasing instability all
overlap within the anomalous PWs. The high-res CAMs, including the
HRRR and UA WRF, are aggressive with redevelopment over the
southern half of AZ during the next few hours, with hourly
rainfall potentially reaching 1.5" at times. This rainfall is
expected despite what should be fast storm motions to the
northeast on 0-6km mean winds of 25-35 kts, as aligned Corfidi
vectors lead to training of echoes. Where multiple rounds of
thunderstorms occur, locally as much as 3" of rainfall is possible.

This region is naturally vulnerable to flash flooding due to
sensitive terrain features like dry washes, arroyos, and burn
scars, and is even more sensitive tonight due to recent rain that
has resulted in 0-40cm soil moisture above the 95th percentile.
Both 1-hr and 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities from the HREF
reach 30-50%, and although the REFS is a bit lower, the setup and
antecedent sensitivity suggest the risk for flash flooding impacts
will steadily increase during the next few hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_cDgJZaZCloHF_ppr13YcjSDvhjso_OnbXEe5zOkL7QmYekyMVssLjf-MgnZv3sCBRtYUIj9azmjA0AaYHS_s8sIfR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35461419 35391223 34290967 33700945 33060992
32311089 31751185 31971318 32531499 33001589
33431635 34031652 34551602 34981525

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 07:37:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290737
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-291300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas northward through the
Permian Basin and into the Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290735Z - 291300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage and repeat from south to north overnight. Rainfall rates
as much as 1"/hr are likely, which could produce 1-3" of rain.
This rain atop saturated soils could cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows expanding
coverage of showers and thunderstorms aligned from the Texas Big
Bend north through the Permian Basin and into the Texas Panhandle.
This activity is building along a moisture convergence axis on the
upwind flank of a 925-850mb LLJ spreading across central TX. PWs
across the region have climbed to as high as 1.6 inches in West
Texas to 1.2 inches across the Panhandle, both above the 90th
percentile for the date. This elevated moisture is being advected
northward from the tropics, primarily between the 700-500mb layer
as noted in LPW fields, and is combining with MUCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg. and warm cloud depths around 12,000 ft to produce an
environment favorable for heavy rainfall through warm rain
processes.

During the next few hours, a shortwave emerging from the Mexican
Plateau will lift northward to help push a wave of low pressure
along the NM/TX border. At the same time, S/SW 925-700mb flow will
surge the stationary front northward to allow for a broadening of
the thermodynamic advection. With the LLJ core remaining to the
east, any subtle backing of the wind field will continue the
impressive moisture convergence, and where this overlaps with the
persistent 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, it will lead to rounds of
thunderstorms lifting northward into the early morning hours.

While the coverage may generally remain scattered, any of these
storms has a 10-30% chance (HREF neighborhood probabilities) of
producing hourly rainfall of 1 inch, which through repeating
rounds may produce locally as much as 3 inches. This will pose an
increasing flash flood concern as antecedent soils are extremely
moist, as reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture that is
above the 98th percentile in many areas from 7-day rainfall that
has been generally 200-600 percent of normal. This has compromised
FFG to around 2"/3hrs, indicating that soils are already
vulnerable, and any additional heavy rain moving atop them could
quickly lead to runoff and instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!__ANIWgpo52x56wUqXWaTXP3nUrEwpMlOiM9ApcypYL1jPa4wHHorH9OE6x-HjwNp322G32gpChyL1XZsmj4ygHDgnk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36020323 35860237 35150097 34400095 33200128
32130195 31310237 30720278 30260309 29860348
29600413 29740465 30300492 30930497 32860410
35370374

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 08:08:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290808
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...North Dakota into northern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290806Z - 291400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
train along a stationary front through the early morning. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr, at times potentially greater, will create an
additional 2-3" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. This may
cause instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows an expansion
of high reflectivity across North Dakota associated with
strengthening convection along a stationary front analyzed by WPC.
This activity is developing in response to an impressive overlap
of ascent and moisture as low-level convergence and upper
diffluence merge within an extreme moisture plume reflected by
LPWs that are above the 95th percentile according to CIRA from New
Mexico all the way to North Dakota. Although MUCAPE has remained
modest (around 500 J/kg), the extreme PWs and ample deep layer
ascent are sufficient to negate the relative dearth of
instability, and recent MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 2
inches leading to FLASH unit streamflow responses of 200-500
cfs/smi across parts of Stutsman, Barnes, and Griggs counties, ND.

Moisture advection will remain impressive into the morning as the
850mb LLJ, measured around 30 kts on regional VWPs, only slowly
veers from S to SW. This will maintain an impressive draw of rich
low-level theta-e air and sufficient instability out of NE/SD to
support efficient rainfall as reflected by both HREF and REFS
probabilities for 1"/hr rates remaining 20-40% for several more
hours. Additional convective development should primarily occur in
the immediate vicinity of the stationary front as it lifts slowly
northeast, and with 0-6km mean winds aligned to both this front
and the accompanying Corfidi vectors, training of echoes from WSW
to ENE is likely. Where the most prolonged training occurs, total
rainfall of 2-3" is expected, with locally higher totals possible
(10-30% chance of more than 3").

As already experienced tonight, through training, these efficient
rainfall rates can quickly lead to rapid runoff and elevated
streamflow responses. Any additional heavy rain will only
exacerbate this concern, and as FFG falls in response (it is now
as low as 0.75"/3hrs in some areas), instances of flash flooding
may result until activity begins to more steadily move eastward in
response to more rapid veering of the LLJ by late morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GMCALplC7hrQepB1d9j-KYv29yn750mHQc2xpQoWBpskWESDuCH61EZSBOBVLbmuOo3lo18BM13Eje0h1JRvS_jZpk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48889484 48849369 48679313 47819331 46779525
46089731 45959915 46000034 46340126 46870118
46970111 47680006 48459747

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 08:55:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290854
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-291445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1395
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and Southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290852Z - 291445Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will slowly expand across
southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico overnight. Hourly
rainfall of 1 inch is possible in stronger cells, which may lead
to flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES-E IR imagery tonight depicts pockets of cooling
cloud tops accompanying thunderstorm development from southern
Arizona into southern New Mexico. This activity is blossoming in
response to increasing deep layer ascent through diffluence along
the approaching upper jet streak pivoting to the northeast
overlapping convergence on the northern periphery of modest 10-15
kts 850mb winds. This region is positioned within an impressive
moisture plume noted via CIRA 700-500mb and 500-300mb LPWs that
are approaching the 99th percentile, coincident with deeply
saturated soundings on the 00Z RAOBs from ABQ and EPZ. Despite
modest MUCAPE which has been generally less than 500 J/kg to slow
convective development in this area tonight, a subtle surge has
begun to lift north, which within this extremely moist column is
sufficient to drive increasing LightningCast probabilities and be
the impetus for this new convective development.

While the CAMs are only modestly excited about overnight
convection in south-central New Mexico, both HREF and REFS
probabilities have an increased signal farther west. This is
likely due to more pronounced ascent (closer to the upper jet
core) occurring within a stronger draw of instability from the
south, and the CAMs indicate widespread thunderstorms by morning
in SE Arizona and SW New Mexico. This widespread activity is
formed through a combination of storms advecting in from the west,
as well as additional development occurring near the Sonora
/Chihuahua borders.

This more impressive signal from SW Arizona through SW New Mexico
is also reflected by the higher probability (10-30% from the REFS
and HREF) for hourly rainfall up to 1 inch, and these cells may
exhibit short-duration training thanks to modest organization on
30-40 kts of bulk shear and aligned mean winds/propagation
vectors. While these rates themselves could be sufficient to
overwhelm the soils (0-40cm soil moisture above the 98th
percentile and accompanying 1-hr FFG as low as 0.75"), any
training could produce locally as much as 3" of rain (10% chance)
which would enhance the flash flood risk. While the greatest risk
overnight appears to be across SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, the
vulnerability of the soils across this entire region indicates
that any intense rain could quickly become runoff leading to flash
flood impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6oBwuKasamlWB-phcknuiyEaok37NQbGA4kA1PJv2v7I1NhlzATEfzh9h5CkLdSd-g6-P26sLIBDiW74GJUitDP_9e8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34330669 34260547 33790439 33180389 32460396
31860467 31460558 31160692 31190893 31191088
31421175 31741225 32561130 33800964 34210816

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 11:21:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291121
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-291720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1396
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291120Z - 291720Z

SUMMARY...Expanding showers and thunderstorms this morning with
high rainfall rates will likely result in areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/WV satellite imagery shows a
strong upper trough and associated closed low amplifying into the
Southwest U.S., with satellite showing cooling convective tops
across areas of central and southern AZ along with some portions
of western NM. Radar imagery confirms the uptick in convective
organization with areas of strong thunderstorm activity tending to
expanding in coverage while producing increasingly heavy rainfall
rates.

Enhanced deep layer ascent/forcing associated with DPVA ahead of
the upper trough coupled with moist deeper layer southwest flow
ahead of it along with modest instability will support an
additional expansion of convection over the next several hours.
MUCAPE values are as high as 500 to 1000 J/kg, with PWs of 1.5 to
1.7 inches. The greatest combination of moisture and instability
is generally over southern AZ, and as the enhanced dynamics with
the amplifying upper trough arrive this morning, there should
rather well-organized bands or clusters of convection with high
rainfall rates.

PWs are in the 95th+ percentile of climatology, with well-defined
and poleward moisture contributions in the mid and upper-levels
emanating from Hurricane Polo that is crossing the Gulf of
California and preparing its second landfall into mainland Mexico.

The 06Z HREF/REFS guidance shows high 3-hour FFG exceedance
probabilities this morning as rainfall rates increase in
association with the uptick in convection. Some rainfall rates
will easily reach into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range, with potential
for some storm totals by late this morning of 2 to 4+ inches.
Areas of flash flooding will be likely as a result, and the
normally dry washes, burn scar locations and any box/slot canyon
areas will be particularly susceptible to impacts with potential
for enhanced runoff concerns. Some urban flooding impacts will
also be a concern at least locally.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7DeImm8_Z-G8pzQDAb97FbPwu9Ln3qx-QB6k2QKYfY8dglxmoWwfblqRniGyTvyQ5lwQom1KD01w0ZSGycMSfng96NA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35640997 35560807 34870707 33990681 32670703
31670775 31180912 31191139 31651284 32071344
32881343 33951279 34771206 35301124

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 14:52:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291452
FFGMPD
NMZ000-291830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1397
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Much of NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291450Z - 291830Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rain will continue going
through midday with some areas of embedded stronger thunderstorm
activity that will produce high rainfall rates. The flash flooding
threat will be somewhat conditional over the next few hours, but
will increase sharply this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows areas of
moderate to heavy rain along with embedded stronger convective
elements moving across western and central NM. This is all
associated with the deeper layer moisture flux advancing off to
the northeast out ahead of a deep layer trough over the Southwest
U.S., and with an increasing moisture and energy contribution
coming from Hurricane Polo that is crossing the Gulf of California
and northwest Mexico.

The overall stronger axis of convection continues to be situated
farther west across central and southern AZ and into far western
NM where the stronger footprint of deeper layer ascent/forcing is
in place. However, over the next few hours, an uptick in forcing
should expand east across central NM which coupled with modest
instability (MUCAPE values locally near 500 J/kg) should foster
some increasing in the coverage of heavy rainfall along with
potentially some more discrete convective cells with high rainfall
rates.

PWs across the region are anomalously high with values locally
near or at record levels for the date. This includes values
locally as high as 1.25 to 1.5 inches, and especially over
south-central NM. Recent CIRA LVT data shows strong mid-level
(700/500 mb) moisture transport crossing northwest Mexico and
aiming for central and southern NM, and this will foster an
increase in rainfall efficiency with the evolution of stronger
convective elements over the next few hours. Despite modest
instability, there is a belt of stronger kinematic flow with
effective bulk shear reaching 30 to 40 kts across central to
southern NM, and this is helping to support some storm
organization.

Rainfall rates over the next few hours may reach upwards of 1 to
1.5 inches/hour and some localized storm totals through midday may
reach 2+ inches. At least for the next few hours, some areas of
flash flooding will be possible. However, expect a sharp increase
in the flash flooding threat more regionally this afternoon as
heavier rainfall rates arrive. Additional MPDs will be issued
accordingly through this afternoon and evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7S9AxTMRQ16nvk0iFdh8mpSeV_Q3MuFST-n5nIENrGBqp-hQNuPYSgDJstm84wY--3BSIXD2AA_HfJNJeRYu-_EF1Lw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36500639 36460475 36210412 35700368 34760364
33710420 33180469 32600550 32120661 32090710
32360721 33480684 34260687 34800702 35300749
35490802 35820871 36240816

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 09:00:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060900
FFGMPD
FLZ000-061430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1458
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060858Z - 061430Z

Summary...The threat for localized flash flooding will continue
across southern portions of the central FL Panhandle through 14Z.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible.

Discussion...Radar imagery has shown an increase in the coverage
and intensity of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the Forgotten Coast over the past 2 hours. Radar
imagery from KEVX and KTLH showed a couple of embedded
mesocyclones (one located 40 miles southwest of Panama City and
another over eastern St. George Island) with enhanced hourly
rainfall from MRMS exceeding 3 to 4 inches at times given the
presence of effective shear between 30-40 kt and a baroclinic
boundary nearby. The increase in activity has been located to the
east of a frontal low, located ~90 miles south of Choctawatchee
Bay, associated with a quasi-stationary front that extended
eastward across the northern Gulf into the northern FL Peninsula.
MLCAPE has remained similar over the past few hours with 500-1000
J/kg confined to southern portions of Gulf and Franklin counties
via the 08Z mesoanalysis. SPC mesoanalyses also showed a slight
increase of 100-200 J/kg over the past 3 hours ending 08Z along
with high PWs values near 2.4 inches, owing to a slight increase
in lower level warm air advection.

The surface low is forecast to drift slowly northward or
northwestward over the next 3-6 hours which should allow the
eastward extending front to also move north. The RAP forecasts a
subtle increase in the magnitude of the low level flow to the east
of surface low into Gulf, Franklin and Wakulla counties, while
also indicating greater directional convergence along the elevated
portion of the boundary that clips the southern portion of the
central FL Panhandle.

Slow moving showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue
increasing in the vicinity of the Forgotten coast over the next
1-2 hours with slow movement and embedded mesocyclones possible,
containing enhanced rainfall efficiency. There is some uncertainty
with the precise latitude of heaviest rain which may end up just
offshore. However, there is enough of a threat to land that could
result in localized flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours with
the greatest threat to southern Gulf and Franklin counties.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hVCJpeXVs6fYtL9qua9U5AZhzmebBJ-tOr1p55B2fa9EOEHQn0wUS9qC48zLLDPJm4bGmvmzjjhq6rxSyg63-nWQ_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30228527 30168486 30158372 29668360 29568424
29388472 29348509 29448547 29638566 29798581
30058581 30188555

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 20:04:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062003
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1459
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062000Z - 070200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms containing rainfall rates up
to 2.5"/hr at times may lead to isolated rainfall totals up to 5"
through this evening. This will bring the potential for isolated
flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and flood prone
locations.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front analyzed at 19Z bisects the
Florida Peninsula just south of I-4, with a surface low analyzed
in the northwestern Gulf associated with an organized cluster of
slow-moving thunderstorms tracking generally eastward. Meanwhile,
south of this front isolated to scattered thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon and are most focused along the Space and
Treasure coasts of east-central Florida. This stationary front and
overall weak/moist mid-level flow will continue to focus
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms into this evening. PWs range
from 2.4" to just over 2.5" and the WBZ height around 16k in the
region (per the 12Z TBW sounding) makes for a very tropical and
highly efficient airmass for heavy rainfall. This is seen via
limited lighting in most cells onshore, but MRMS rainfall
estimates remain impressive up to around 2-3"/hr.

Going through this evening, isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms should continue as inflow SBCAPE remains
above 3000 J/kg, with more widespread activity just east of the
MCV in the northwest Gulf. This activity will impact the Tampa Bay
metro area and could lead to urban flooding concerns should
activity move inland and rainfall rates remain 2-3"/hr. 12Z HREF
and REFS probs for greater than 3" per 3-hrs is widely 30-50%
around the Tampa Bay area eastward towards the Treasure and Space
coasts of central FL through 00Z tonight. Given the high FFGs and
flat/swampy ground conditions, most impacts will be confined to
urban areas and low-lying flood prone locations.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_YhCsQx_tNWfdqTltHWF0ino4McPvAxK5oq6Y_zAwqqEYlRrjp2cu69UYNOwwW-ZWaZS_6jxNbDvOMwAbU6jzpoMARI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28668261 28058223 27948170 28438125 28518075
28128036 27308008 27128045 27398104 27318160
26848210 27048270 27638301 28358304

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 15:34:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081533
FFGMPD
FLZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1132 AM EDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081530Z - 082100Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing this afternoon will be capable
of producing rainfall rates in excess of 3"/hr. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon, especially in more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows mostly sunny skies over
south FL and widespread cloud cover over the northern half of the
FL Peninsula. This is generally a good demarcation for the
location of a stalled frontal boundary located over central FL
that will become the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon. The
contrast between cloud cover to the north and clearer skies to the
south will tighten the thermal/CAPE gradient already in place. The
environment is primed to produce highly efficient rainfall rates.
The 12Z TBW (Tampa) sounding measured a 2.46" PW and MLCAPE >800
J/kg. Low-to-mid level RH values were above 90%, and RH values

80% were common within the 500-150mb layer, highlighting the

impressive moisture content available within the troposphere.

Among the other notable parameters is the vertical wind shear
present. The 12Z TBW sounding measured cloud layer shear levels
near 30 kts. Per SPC sounding climatology, this is around the 90th climatological percentile. In addition, much of the state is
located beneath the right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak
which is providing excellent upper-level divergence aloft. Between
the anomalous moisture content, the frontal boundary acting as a
surface-based trigger, and the synoptic-scale forcing aloft,
central FL is likely to contend with organized clusters of strong
thunderstorms this afternoon.

NASA SPoRT-LIS show 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles are above 90%
over much of northern FL and even much of central FL. Latest 12Z
HREF guidance shows moderate chances (40-60%) for 3-hr and 6-hr
FFG exceedance this afternoon and low chances (20-40%) for 1-hr
rainfall rates >3"/hr. This is notable considering the prolonged
S-SW low-level winds that are intersecting the frontal boundary
could cause training thunderstorm activity. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon in areas where training thunderstorms
occur, as well as within the more urbanized communities that
contain a greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are
present.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-PFCv6Fki4dga6jVOvHOdkSIOvXm2aYAyeQZBQTL7QYGQJT7iGl1GyYUCqAi4pfuoQLjeagL6XY9efFViT-Dzgw5-7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29468147 29388093 29138070 28578027 28188011
27647999 27027986 26677987 26198013 26238045
26638058 26778149 26548205 26608239 26668257
26968289 27448300 27878309 28338305 28668305
28988289 29128265 29268206

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 09:07:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-021400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1427
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Areas affected...southern to north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020904Z - 021400Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from the
middle TX coast into central to northern TX over the next 3-5
hours. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (with isolated values over
2 inches) is expected, but the coverage of any flash flooding that
develops is expected to remain localized.

DISCUSSION...Radar and infrared satellite imagery through 0840Z
showed a recent increase in the coverage of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of southern and central to northern
TX. Much of the activity located closer to the coast was located
just on the cool side of an elongated outflow boundary that hugged
the lower and middle TX coast before turning more inland across
southeastern TX. Farther inland, loops of radar/satellite imagery
helped infer a low level circulation/vorticity max ~35 miles ENE
of San Antonio with a broken axis of showers near and just west of
I-35 from Austin to Dallas. Moisture across southern to eastern TX
was very high with 2.0 to 2.6 inch PW values via 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis data (highest to south), but instability was weak,
with MLCAPE values at or less than 500 J/kg across locations on
the cool side of the outflow boundary, although pockets of
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE were present across portions of inland
locations.

In the vicinity of the middle TX Coast, onshore low level winds of
10-20 kt will continue across the region through 12Z with
overrunning of the nearly stationary outflow boundary.
Southeasterly to southerly low level winds will be supportive of
occasional training and overall slow movement of rainfall axes.
Instability will be a limiting factor however, with the greatest
potential for flash flooding rainfall near the outflow boundary
where the higher instability is located.

Farther inland, the inferred vorticity max to the east of San
Antonio and an axis of low level convergence centered near 850 mb
will likely maintain scattered showers and occasional
thunderstorms near I-35. A gradual translation of localized heavy
rain toward the northwest is expected through 14Z following the
forecast movement of the convergence axis by the RAP. In addition,
the right-entrance region of a 60-80 kt jet max over northern TX
into OK will enhance broader scale divergence aloft across central
to northern TX.

Despite the high moisture, limited instability and weak low level
convective inhibition have been major limiting factors in the
development of higher rainfall rates thus far. However, the
continued advection of lower level moisture inland should support
some pockets of increased moisture in the lower levels and a
reduction in the magnitude of convective inhibition, at least in
localized spots across central TX through sunrise. This may yield
isolated bursts of higher intensity rainfall due to slow movement
from weak deeper layer steering flow of less than 10 kt.

Portions of south-central to northern TX received 3 to 6 inches of
rain over the past 24 hours which has left soils more susceptible
to runoff. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected to be most
common but the environment may support isolated hourly rainfall
values over 2 to 3 inches. These higher rates atop urban areas or
saturated to nearly saturated soils may result in isolated flash
flooding over the next several hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7H4ilDOv3C3cdRBj4kMCLZ_wp_PIeP5q_M3zdZ1odeHNfQm2jNWNLTsVP_ELWUdKzzOQNBjGdz-69ZlkD_3gFMdJB2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33219664 33079617 32709588 32329571 31669566
30749555 30019508 29659509 29139548 28409611
28139631 27319740 27399799 27679837 28149866
28759889 29489904 30259917 31569897 32159852
32919770 33129713

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 14:01:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021401
FFGMPD
TXZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to South-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021400Z - 021900Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and very efficient showers along with a few
thunderstorms will continue to foster a threat of additional flash
flooding going through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken
axis of low to medium-topped convection in close proximity to a
stationary front draped generally north to south across
north-central to south-central TX.

Relatively focused low-level moisture convergence along with weak
shallow instability and weak low to mid-level vort energy riding
along the front are the primary drivers of the current activity.
Although there is also some weak right-entrance region upper jet
dynamics overhead that is likely providing at least some modest
deeper layer ascent. MUCAPE values are generally only around 500
J/kg, with somewhat greater values farther south toward the Lower
Rio Grande Valley and adjacent areas of south-central TX.

The PWs though are quite high with values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches,
and with the warm/saturated low to mid-levels of the column
associated with the shallow convection, a very high-level of
rainfall efficiency is in place.

This will continue to support areas of 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates, with rather slow cell-motions. The ongoing areas of
convection should continue to remain relatively concentrated near
the stationary front at least going through early this afternoon,
and this may result in some additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals
locally.

This may drive some additional areas of flash flooding over the
next several hours as a result, and especially for the more
sensitive flood-prone urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4SIj_3YXnKHJFBoHrTsE2EGmigJOI6vtV1onNpyONUSE-HF15MvOjnnqVi2yQCRA7jR54pzsBQTcYYnvg4CaLMfT7Js$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32799751 32359657 30769692 28499802 27599857
27319913 27389988 28000023 28650000 29489964
30469923 31679897 32439836

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 19:03:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021902
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1429
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021900Z - 030100Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving and very efficient showers and a few thunderstorms may tend to persist across areas of central TX
through early this evening. An isolated threat for flash flooding
will tend to continue given locally moist/wet antecedent
conditions from earlier rainfall.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with radar
data shows a broken axis of efficient shower activity along with
some occasional thunderstorms still impacting portions of central
TX, including eastern parts of the Hill Country and western
portions of the TX Triangle.

A quasi-stationary front remains draped across the region which is
allowing for low-level moisture convergence to focus along it
along with modest instability. MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg
are in place with PWs of 2.25+ inches. This along with some weak
low to mid-level vort energy transiting the front should continue
to foster scattered to locally broken areas of convection going
through early this evening.

The activity may continue to be relatively warm-topped and this
will favor very efficient processes for locally enhanced rainfall
rates given the concentration of moisture in the low to mid-levels
of the vertical column. Some rainfall rates will continue to be
capable of reaching well into the 1 to 2 inches/hour with these
additional pockets of convection.

Slow cell-motions will foster the potential for additional
localized 2 to 4 inch rainfal totals. Generally the latest hires
guidance emphasizes this being an isolated concern. The locally
moist/wet antecedent conditions from earlier rainfall will tend to
support some concern for some additional isolated areas of flash
flooding as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!55Oxamqbc414pYZPjfsjCs1OCL3QTxVJdy3-ywiqkjq-ArdhTcRpZsw5_q5NzymoeLJOicRqN7D03Y8EpMpbQ6w3Uh0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32279675 31549647 30229670 29249734 29029813
29389881 30199892 31099862 32209766

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 21:15:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082046
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082045Z - 090200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing >3"/hr
rainfall rates may produce flash flooding in poor drainage areas
and in highly urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...20Z Doppler Radar showed scattered thunderstorms over
central and southern FL, while some occasional elevated convection
flared up over northern FL. The environment remains highly
saturated with PWs reaching 2.5" in some instances. The nearby
frontal boundary has played a role in triggering thunderstorms in
central FL, while the western and eastern coasts of FL have seen
storms flare up along sea breeze fronts. From Tampa on east to
Cape Canaveral and points south, RAP mesoanalysis shows >1,000
J/kg of MLCAPE available to developing storms. The 300mb jet
circulation pattern also shows upper-level divergence remains
present within the right-entrance region of a 300mb jet streak.

Latest RAP forecast shows unusually high levels of vertical wind
shear lingering into the evening hours, as will the sufficient
instability and copious amounts of moisture aloft. It will not
take much from any lifting mechanism; sea breezes, outflow
boundaries, or the frontal boundary to generate additional storms
through 00Z. Most CAMs are in agreement that the coverage of
thunderstorms should begin to dwindle not long after 00Z and most
storms should dissipate by midnight EDT. The available moisture
and instability, along with the potential for some training
t-storms near and south of the frontal boundary, could result in
pockets of >3"/hr rainfall rates. This could lead to flash
flooding in more heavily urbanized communities and poor drainage
spots through the early evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4GPwCVhpz8RDc6TAfX_pVzHKMc7Cjf7bhDGBoy_d-ywpHkh15sQTy4BFzLIH5WcsKB4eRxS5gadBGcegC4wqJN8cn48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28968111 28888056 28818043 28468020 28068013
27628001 27358006 27107998 26598006 25988033
25938053 26458098 26638133 26768177 26818218
27018246 27418279 28048294 28428274 28668248
28878170

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:43:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 091703
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1462
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091700Z - 092300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Isaias will
continue to lift north over the next several hours across southern
AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. The threat for flash
flooding will gradually increase with time.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
conventional radar mosaics show the eye of Hurricane Isaias
continuing its approach to the FL Panhandle. As the storm
continues to lift north this afternoon, it will be increasingly
interacting with a frontal zone draped around the north side of
the storm's circulation.

Deep and strongly convergent southerly low to mid-level flow
around the eastern flank of the storm will surge north across the
FL Panhandle over the next several hours. This will foster an
expanding shield of heavy rainfall more regionally via deep
warm/moist air advection and associated isentropic ascent.
Gradually the poleward transport of instability will favor the
development and expansion of convection near and north of the
front in an elevated fashion. However, core instability-driven
convective bands associated with Isaias will be focusing farther
south, but will be lifting north around the storm's eastern
semicircle toward the FL Panhandle.

A nose of MUCAPE values across the eastern Gulf of America are on
the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg in association with the deep layer
southerly flow, and much of the stronger convective banding will
be aligned with this instability axis in conjunction with stronger
low-level convergence. Central convection associated with the core
of Isaias will likely still remain largely offshore until later
this afternoon, but rainfall rates are expected to increase ahead
of this as strong deep layer forcing increases along with outer
convective banding features.

Rainfall rates of up to 1 inch/hour can be expected to arrive by
around 21Z (4PM CDT), with rates potentially reaching 2+
inches/hour shortly thereafter. These rainfall rates and an
expected increase in cell-training concerns should support some 3
to 5+ inch totals by early this evening, and this is consistent
with the 12Z HREF/REFS guidance.

FFG are very high across the region, so initially the soils/ground
conditions should be able to accommodate the front-end rainfall
ahead Isaias' central convection and impending landfall in the
western FL Panhandle, but as the rates increase and begin
involving more urbanized areas, the concerns for flash flooding
will begin to steadily increase.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Gj_3v-RekROcZNzXa6RinTMXWN5Qy8Yz9Nz4tu4OkHm1-r31EqezN3WE60tqjGtyUlFYoSglixuhd3aCHu_jpqA1mc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31848541 31658440 31208357 30648326 30168338
29828371 29578433 29508524 29698574 30038631
30108706 30188800 30558836 31068821 31528756
31788659

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 20:27:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092027
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1463
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL & Southeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092025Z - 100225Z

SUMMARY...Outer bands from Isaias are approaching northern
Florida, while pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms along a
nearby frontal boundary may produce excessive rainfall rates up to
3"/hr. Flash flooding is possible late afternoon and into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows a cluster of thunderstorms
off the Southeast coast with a ribbon congested cumulus clouds
effectively marking the location of a quasi-stationary front.
Doppler Radar also shows the eastern most outer bands of Isaias
tracking NNE and heading for the nature coast.

The Florida Peninsula is caught between a tightening pressure
gradient with high pressure to the north and northeast, and
powerful Hurricane Isaias to the west. This is fostering a SErly
925-850mb flow pattern over the Florida Peninsula and off the Gulf
Stream that is forecast to push this frontal boundary northward as
a warm front this evening. Instability is highest over northern FL
where as much as 2,000 J/kg is available. There also remains no
shortage of tropical moisture available, highlighted by >2.25" PWs
that will stick around through this evening.

As Isaias tracks north, so will the frontal boundary as 1000-850mb
layer warm-air advection (WAA) advances northward. The tightening
theta-e gradient will develop additional storms along the both
I-95 and I-10 corridors into this evening. Low-level easterly
winds off the Carolina coast will accelerate and provide
additional moisture just north of the frontal boundary. RAP
guidance shows a narrow zone of 925-850mb mass flux convergence
over northern FL beyond 00Z. This area is likely to become the
focus for increasing thunderstorm coverage, and potential for some back-building storms given the gradual northward advancement of
the frontal boundary.

FFGs are lowest from the Jacksonville metro area on north along
I-95 into southeast GA and along I-10 where 1hr FFGs are as low as
2.5" in some cases. Given the highly saturated soundings that
include increasing instability and warm cloud layer depths of at
least 13,000ft, highly efficient rainfall rates up to 3"/hr are
anticipated late afternoon and into this evening. Flash flooding
is possible with more heavily urbanized communities and low-lying,
poor drainage areas most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!924-T7v37vl02QXisA1zCS0_jA0NZwuTFH6CbiN9PFxIrftq-gK2g6m5g6U0oBnD5yBl6LJmZ_d71Ovhem5kNY5OPdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31098223 31048174 30968150 30828139 30568122
30248112 29918110 29488117 29448136 29408163
29258187 29078197 28898206 28648216 28448225
28388251 28418264 28598283 28808297 28988312
29178332 29358346 29628369 30048369 30208361
30378352 30748309 30948268
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 22:08:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092207
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Southern Alabama...Southwest
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092205Z - 100320Z

SUMMARY...

--Isaias will make landfall soon and produce torrential rainfall
rates of 3-4" per hour within its northern eyewall.

--Rainfall totals between 2-5" and localized amounts up to 8" are
likely for areas directly within Isaias's path. Similar amounts
are possible within Isaias's eastern outer bands.

--Significant flash flooding impacts are likely; including but not
limited to flooded/impassable roads, water rescues, and flooding
in numerous structures that include homes and businesses.

DISCUSSION...

Isaias is barreling towards the Florida Panhandle with landfall
expected within the next few hours. Isaias is feeling the affects
of both increasing vertical wind shear and is undergoing
extra-tropical transition. This is evident in satellite
representation with a large baroclinic leaf of moisture of water
vapor over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, and the majority of the precipitation shield is displaced to the north and east of
Isaias's circulation.

Doppler Radar shows the northern eyewall of Isaias heading towards
an area as far west as Pensacola and as far east as Tyndall AFB.
It is between these locations of the Florida Panhandle where the
most significant impacts from Isaias will be felt. Farther east,
the outer bands of Isaias will extend all the way to Apalachee
Bay. To as far east as the Nature Coast, the outer bands will be
positioned within an area of 925-850mb wind convergence and
continue to support additional strong thunderstorms over the FL
Big Bend and on down the Nature Coast this evening.

The one bit of positive news is that Isaias is becoming more
progressive and its eyewall will continue to lose its structure
and intensity as it moves into southern AL tonight. The window for
the prolific rainfall rates is going to be a couple hours at most
within the eyewall. However, that is still enough time for those
directly in Isaias's path to receive significant rainfall amounts
that pose a major threat to life and property this evening. The
21Z WoFS members utilizing 5-minute rainfall rates show anywhere
from 0.25-0.40" as the storm advances inland, which indicate
3-4"/hr rainfall rates and locally higher rates possible within
the eyewall. Similar rates are possible within the eastern bands
over the Big Bend as well.

Local residents should follow the guidance of local officials as
Isaias advances north through the central Gulf Coast region this
evening. Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
expected in the path of Isaias this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!461wSvACDESBqMm3a22z6B26Ki8Y0-cmmxhRcKozJDTVxDO-ul-56RJ-s-j0M2XxLU1rYtxSx3nJVhppM4-kUFdc9KU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32128694 32108620 31938569 31838520 31678476
31418438 31168388 30908357 30698338 30488336
30178356 29878370 29588412 29568502 29798585
30078649 30158690 30168735 30178766 30468783
30758789 31148786 31498769 31888745
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 12:51:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031251
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031801-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1430
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031249Z - 031801Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms have
developed across north-central Texas this morning, and some
instances of flash flooding will be possible with rainfall rates
over 2 inches per hour with the most persistent convection.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars and GOES infrared satellite
imagery are indicating an increase in slow moving convection
mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor, with a slow general
trend to the north. Some of the stronger cells have been rather
persistent over the past couple of hours, with recent hourly
rainfall estimates of at least 2 inches per hour with the storms
between Corsicana and Fairfield. These cells are also developing
in an environment with deep warm layer cloud depths and thus are
efficient rainfall producers. Although instability remains
somewhat of a limiting factor with mixed layer CAPE generally 500
J/kg or less based on recent SPC mesoanalysis, PWs are quite high
with values near 2 inches within the outlook area.

The latest CAM guidance suggests this trend should continue
through the late morning and into the midday hours as this heavy
rainfall makes its way toward the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the
Interstate 20 corridor. The latest HRRR seems to have a good
overall initialization when compared to ongoing radar trends, and
its 6-hourly QPF through 18Z shows the potential for 3 to 6 inch
rainfall totals between Dallas, Tyler, and Fairfield, and lighter
amounts elsehwere. Some instances of flash flooding will be
possible through 1 pm local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aXYWwDQFqL1gNJcMbTmr-jKF3j3Il7ehaHlXONw1A_vxiy69E_dwQ-B4UH_ahkZypOpUMCYYH18b7tKPnwutDzchJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33949509 33949440 33769398 33369371 32549404
31749506 31489569 30959681 30869742 31019785
31219818 31689830 32169812 32749752 33199679
33629600

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 18:45:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031844
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1431
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern GA...Eastern SC...Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031842Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and storms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon and continuing into the
early evening hours. Some instances of flash flooding will be
possible through 8 pm local time with localized rainfall rates
approaching 3 inches per hour with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a steady
increase in convective coverage from eastern Georgia up through
the eastern Carolinas early this afternoon. GOES infrared
satellite imagery indicates the strongest updrafts are currently
over southeastern Georgia, and this will likely be the case later
this afternoon farther to the northeast across the outlook area.
These storms are developing in a very moist and moderately
unstable environment with PWs of 2.0 to 2.4 inches, and mixed
layer CAPE on the order of 750 to 1500 J/kg based on the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.

An examination of the latest CAM guidance indicates that the
convection over Georgia is likely underdone based on ongoing radar
trends, but otherwise the HRRR and RRFS seem to have a reasonable
depiction. These solutions generally have scattered QPF maxima of
3-5 inches, with much of this likely falling within a 2 hour time
period for any given location. Therefore, some instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4RhjHkw0KJsyt25l-qthsdJyazeDSE5lD6w7rzISjW-V8ZNxEuQD4xhmYKRIElXBSxA4teIl2yHAzw58cNw7e90uImg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...MHX...RAH...
TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35847803 35447706 34737708 33907783 33677871
32987928 32118063 31138132 30898175 30818233
30948304 31298341 31818367 32268366 32698335
32918297 33468161 34318085 35108039 35707923

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 19:18:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031918
FFGMPD
TXZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1432
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031916Z - 032300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
affect portions of north-central early this afternoon, and some
instances of flash flooding will remain possible through 6 pm
local time.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating persistent
slow moving convection, mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor
from Waco to Tyler, with episodes of repeated back-building cells
over the past several hours. Recent hourly rainfall estimates of
2-3 inches per hour have been observed with the storms between
Corsicana and Fairfield, with some rainfall totals near 6 inches
since this morning. These cells are also developing in an
environment with deep warm layer cloud depths and thus are
efficient rainfall producers, along with anomalous PWs near 2
inches and a well defined instability gradient oriented southwest
to northeast.

The latest CAM guidance suggests this trend should continue for
the next few hours, and should be tapering off towards 6 pm local
time. The latest HRRR seems to have a good overall initialization
when compared to ongoing radar trends, whereas the RRFS is
probably too far north with the expected QPF. An additional 1-3
inches of rainfall is likely.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6ijoWUQ6J0iI4ZG-_tFw9oR3eZW2ZgRke2L2TYerTQjTIlOemviDJXPRe-knInXHpCVeXI-ZGzl68yVqkDD_46VYpyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33089561 32739521 32139555 31149711 30979773
31109800 31409807 31819784 32189746 32639672

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 20:29:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032029
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032027Z - 040227Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have been showing increasing
rainfall efficiency as of late in and near southeast LA. Hourly
rain amounts to 3" are possible, which would be problematic in
urban areas.

Discussion...Recent radar and satellite trends show a tendency for
more rainfall efficiency as of late as thunderstorms show cooling
cloud tops even if the overall pattern is widely scattered.
Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5" per GPS data. Effective
bulk shear is just shy of 25 kts, with upper level west-southwest
flow countering east-southeast low-level flow to some degree. ML
CAPE is ~1500 J/kg. Divergence aloft could be aided both by
supergeostrophic flow over the top of an upper level ridge across
the northern Gulf and a weak shortwave transiting MS.

The mesoscale guidance has a heavy rain signal that shifts from
west to east over time within the MPD area, due to a combination
of the shortwave's movement eastward and recent RAP runs forming a
circulation at 850 hPa which approaches the Mouth of the MS River/
Breton and Chandeleur Sounds towards 06z. An instability
gradient/convective focus attempts to conform to the coastline as
convection inland exhausts instability ashore while onshore flow
keeps instability around for coastal areas. Hourly rain amounts
to 3" are possible, given the ingredients available. This would
be most problematic in urban areas. Any flash flooding is
expected to be isolated to widely scattered in coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-q4eqjMInSk0-vs3AAGnlYvcrcbvEem1GR5fs4MXEuMfutdAia3qH_-Iq8tzoZldp5nmXh61YCJ5sjhkzf5ILcpTGto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31048754 30888649 30368609 29608730 28988900
29029078 29499187 30619071 30948935

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 22:48:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032248
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032246Z - 040446Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain could lead to
hourly rain amounts to 3" and local totals to 5". Any flash
flooding issues would be widely scattered.

Discussion...A convective low with a central pressure of 1006 hPa
lies offshore of southern TX. A convergence zone in the wind
field lies to its northeast, with thunderstorm activity mostly
concentrated to its west just offshore Southern TX. Other
convection is located in the coastal plain from Victoria south-
southwestward. Precipitable water values are 2.3-2.6" per GPS
data. While effective bulk shear is under 25 kts, there have been
attempts at primitive convective banding. ML CAPE is 1500-3000
J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance shows skirmishes of heavy rainfall into
tonight across southern TX. Given the ingredients available,
hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible,
which would be most problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding
could be widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5r_oEgI7RpoUQXqv3BIiFvmc5O3o2XVqGzvZ3h1YxehC0qplPGfRyKE6sF6gUlbA5T0chx0IxLKaT4Bgs9ivAgbrDNM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29129720 28699593 28059666 27209719 25779706
25759802 26249880 27819866

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 23:44:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032344
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-040242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1435
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...eastern FL/GA border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032342Z - 040242Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible for
another 2-3 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible, which
would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An pair of outflow collisions are evident on recent
radar imagery, with the Gulf Breeze pushing convection northeast,
while outflow from southeast GA convection acts as a northern
limit on new convective growth. Precipitable water values are
~2.5". ML CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is <25
kts. The convective area is within a region of 850 hPa confluence.

The 18z HREF/12z REFS guidance indicates that issues could persist
until 02-03z here before moving offshore into the western
subtropical Atlantic. Outflow boundary collisions are expected to
push heavy rainfall into Jacksonville and possibly Brunswick GA in
the near term. Given the parameters in place, hourly rain amounts
to 3" are possible, which would be a problem in and around urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gofZyyHTp22E575MyWX_jYQup5zw66BbtIubqrKvl4ruyUEBaWVKzmwH5S5sG0D7g1Gduouow1GQHfeQWXesZ-lwho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31318173 31218135 30558137 29628125 29568201
29808212 30058214 30988218

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 23:47:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032346
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-040242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1435...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Corrected for typo in first discussion line

Areas affected...eastern FL/GA border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032342Z - 040242Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible for
another 2-3 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible, which
would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A pair of outflow collisions is evident on recent
radar imagery, with the Gulf Breeze pushing convection northeast,
while outflow from southeast GA convection acts as a northern
limit on new convective growth. Precipitable water values are
~2.5". ML CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is <25
kts. The convective area is within a region of 850 hPa confluence.

The 18z HREF/12z REFS guidance indicates that issues could persist
until 02-03z here before moving offshore into the western
subtropical Atlantic. Outflow boundary collisions are expected to
push heavy rainfall into Jacksonville and possibly Brunswick GA in
the near term. Given the parameters in place, hourly rain amounts
to 3" are possible, which would be a problem in and around urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7MglJH8iFqen69fOg1Y2LdtaNFftlxPdrvi6xgJ7nOPtj3vj4MF8vkGOAe85Avh5YT8O78DmlNorbeciKVmYrdZK2wk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31318173 31218135 30558137 29628125 29568201
29808212 30058214 30988218

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 00:10:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040010
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040608-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1436
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...northeast GA & portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040008Z - 040608Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
expected into tonight. Hourly rain amounts to 3" remain possible,
which could cause isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A moist southerly low-level flow into a nearby front
combined with 25+ kts of effective bulk shear, precipitable water
values of 2-2.3", and ML CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg continues to aid
convective development across portions of the Carolinas. Aloft, a
shortwave moving through the Mid-Atlantic States is aiding
difluence. Convective tops have not been overly cold, but
rainfall amounts per 88D imagery has been efficient, occasionally
reaching 3" in an hour.

The 12z HREF/18z REFS along with the available ingredients
indicate that pockets of heavy rainfall could continue to yield 3"
in an hour into tonight across portions of northeast GA, southern
NC, and portions of SC. This degree of heavy rainfall would be
most problematic in urban areas. Any flash flooding could be
isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5l1XwZ_uLJr5QZDIcVCuW4INuqws0ANCGZKajpk4t2Gwwc5SB5JcVOEOa-810EcfxqV3g8BMsoriL97oW_yh16wN0XI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36128184 34938073 35018000 35167938 35147751
34937582 34597622 34557663 34587688 34367727
33807786 33697854 33457875 32867950 33438004
33348160 33548304 34088399 35098339

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 02:56:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100255
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern Alabama...West Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100300Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Inner core of Isaias expected to transition to broader,
prolonged moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation shield
across. Broad 2-3" totals with embedded higher 3-4" totals
through 09z, likely to result in flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Even a hour or so after landfall, the broader
northern band of Isaias is starting to shrink in areal coverage
for the highest reflectivity and therefore rates still over
2.5-3"/hr as it is crossing out of Florida into S Alabama.
However, the downstream moderate rainfall rate shield continues to
expand across central AL into W GA taking on a more traditional
baroclinic comma head appearance in regional RADAR. This is in
response to the strengthening of the TROWAL as the gradient
further tightens in the northern hemisphere of the circulation and
entering the broadening entrance region of the 70-90kt 300mb jet
that expands across N MS, N AL, all of TN into the Southern
Appalachians. Solid easterly moisture flux off the Atlantic
combined with southeasterly moisture flux still over 70kts along
the western branch of the TROWAL (denoted well by the remaining
inner eastern band convection across the central FL Peninsula
arching westward into south-central AL. Embedded 1-2"/hr rates
could still be expected along the deformation zone/interface with
with the TROWAL, though the overall shield rates of .5-1"/hr will
continue to compound through the overnight period. As a result, a
broad area of 2-3" is expected across much of southern and central
AL with a few stripes of 3-4"+ along the southeast portions of the
shield in SE AL/SW GA/W central GA over a 6hr period. FFG values
already compromised across S AL are still likely to be exceeded
but starting to shift from the 1hr and 3hr exceedance toward the
3hr and 6hr exceedance. Further north, 3-6hr FFG values of 3-4"
and 4-5" respectively are likely to be exceeded locally and given
the broad footprint, flash flooding will start to shift more over
toward main stem/riverine flooding (please refer to AHD from
National Water Center for additional details).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xKK1DmnO_FamomlzcW3g9oiN-7CCxUm0iSr-jrlpHJS0jh6PsISUawP7GIO8TjrlQ5GOW6mWiVoAzmPthr6dNjXjcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33738506 33408422 32598376 31858404 31518556
31118593 31078684 31778756 32428791 33238768
33728683
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 02:16:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100216
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend of Florida into Southwest/central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100215Z - 100800Z

SUMMARY...Training eastern outer bands of Hurricane Isaias.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows Isaias has made landfall
further west near Destin. The overall structure of Isaias is also
starting to take on more extratropical characteristics with a
broadening dry slot rounding the southern edge toward the
northeast into the Big Bend of the northeast Gulf of America,
while the inner core is starting to broaden further enhancing the
inner core band within the eastern quadrant currently oriented
from E Franklin county back toward Jackson county. This will be a
narrower band but still have stronger speed and therefore moisture
convergence for efficient heavy rainfall and capability of
2-3"/hr. Slow eastward drift will continue as Isaias wobbles
northward, however, given the narrow nature of the band the heavy
rainfall footprint will be smaller but moving through areas
already under flash flooding warnings. Additional stripe of 2-4"
across the central FL panhandle into far SE AL, SW GA will likely
continue in flooding conditions.

Further east...
The main outer band remains best aligned with the warm conveyor
belt of the cyclone and traps the greatest moisture content
through depth in a deeply confluent flow from surface through
700mb with 60 to 75 degrees of confluence across the eastern Gulf
toward the intersection of the stationary front across Northern
Florida. Total PWat values remain around 2.5" in this outer band.
In addition, warm waters and higher theta-E values help to
maintain a modestly broad instability axis generally aligned or
slightly west of the WCB, moisture stream. Saturated profiles
with MLCAPEs over 1000-1500 J/kg, and IVT values of 700-850 kg/m/s
per CIRA LVT layers over 200 kg/m/s through 500mb should support
flux for 3"/hr rates with occasionally higher capability toward 4"
locally. Unlike the band further west, it is going to remain
broader and slower in eastward progression. There remains
uncertainty to longevity of convergence upstream over the source
region for extreme localized totals, but there remain some
suggestions for a stripe of additional 4-5" totals across the Big
Bend northward into far southern GA. Overall totals will likely
reduce further north as dry slot expands northeastward and overall
moisture values through depth diminish slightly and instability
may reduce vertical vigor through southern Georgia. Still 2-4"
totals are possible which will help to expand areas of flash
flooding likely through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Dxxd5s8bFq32R8RXS4_-LUN9N33lQzuVr4I5FyGskgDXvcMlLeYJEnfDCTbe1fs7pPzKq2cj7pJ8AYwHm2rIWL_pMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31708495 31708377 31438297 30938261 30198248
29148264 29118300 29458338 29908383 29988416
29748453 29618496 30138504 30768545 31118563
31508546
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 03:26:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100326
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1467
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Northeast Florida...Georgia...Southern
South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100325Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially back-building supercells near
lifting coastal front may allow for additional localized incidents
of flash flooding due to 2-3"/hr rates.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows a weak surface inflection
near, just north of Orlando along the older stationary front.
GOES-E 3.9um SWIR loop and theta-E gradient analysis suggest the
surface front remains along the First Coast lifting northward
where it becomes a bit more ill-defined along the SE GA coast
before sharpening again near 31N. Low level wind response has
resulted in strong moisture flux convergence along portions of the
boundary for elevated thunderstorm activity to blossom through the
last few hours, especially near Duval county and along the front
that extends eastward along 31N. Very high Tds in the upper 70s
with still some modest temperatures differences in the low 80s
maintains a solid conditionally unstable airmass in proximity to
the front and therefore the coast. Strongly veered low level wind
profile including wind speed maintains solid helicity and bulk
shear for modest updraft rotation. This further increases moisture
flux convergence into the updraft for efficient rainfall
production of 2-3"/hr rates. Additionally, southerly inflow along
the upwind flank has reduced forward speeds to allow for increased
residency across and in proximity to the Jacksonville Metro
resulting in localized 2-4" totals in 1-2 hours resulting in
localized flash flooding.

This environment is expected to maintain/continue but slowly shift
northward along the GA coast. In addition, RAP forecast of
southeasterly 850mb winds will further press the stationary front
toward the central SC coast as well. This will bring MLCAPEs
toward 1500-2000 J/kg. Surface winds are expected to be
northeasterly across the Carolinas and veering southward to
further increase convergence for scattered thunderstorm activity
but maintain potential for back-building/redevelopment near the
frontal zone. This will support cells to remain in close
proximity to coastal locations including Savannah and Charleston,
SC though most of the late morning...though trends are for a
slight delay in arrival further north. Additionally, best
convergence may remain offshore, as may the cells which would
obviously reduce any potential for flash flooding. Still, the
proximity remains close and with such highly efficient rainfall
rates, rapid inundation flooding remains possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5K5-EMZKGL7fKm5zpgMtocGEOnINCiGYyx21iy7IRmi8Spb7RsbNguqzyumHpclsy-VCNejwvHJ3aJ9chvgDMEwQCa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32558075 32238049 31708096 31568105 30878135
29998125 29658153 29998193 30948213 31778186
32358137
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 05:17:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100517
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1466...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Corrected for In concerning line...Flash Flooding considered Likely

Areas affected...Central and Southern Alabama...West Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100300Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Inner core of Isaias expected to transition to broader,
prolonged moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation shield
across. Broad 2-3" totals with embedded higher 3-4" totals
through 09z, likely to result in flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Even a hour or so after landfall, the broader
northern band of Isaias is starting to shrink in areal coverage
for the highest reflectivity and therefore rates still over
2.5-3"/hr as it is crossing out of Florida into S Alabama.
However, the downstream moderate rainfall rate shield continues to
expand across central AL into W GA taking on a more traditional
baroclinic comma head appearance in regional RADAR. This is in
response to the strengthening of the TROWAL as the gradient
further tightens in the northern hemisphere of the circulation and
entering the broadening entrance region of the 70-90kt 300mb jet
that expands across N MS, N AL, all of TN into the Southern
Appalachians. Solid easterly moisture flux off the Atlantic
combined with southeasterly moisture flux still over 70kts along
the western branch of the TROWAL (denoted well by the remaining
inner eastern band convection across the central FL Peninsula
arching westward into south-central AL. Embedded 1-2"/hr rates
could still be expected along the deformation zone/interface with
with the TROWAL, though the overall shield rates of .5-1"/hr will
continue to compound through the overnight period. As a result, a
broad area of 2-3" is expected across much of southern and central
AL with a few stripes of 3-4"+ along the southeast portions of the
shield in SE AL/SW GA/W central GA over a 6hr period. FFG values
already compromised across S AL are still likely to be exceeded
but starting to shift from the 1hr and 3hr exceedance toward the
3hr and 6hr exceedance. Further north, 3-6hr FFG values of 3-4"
and 4-5" respectively are likely to be exceeded locally and given
the broad footprint, flash flooding will start to shift more over
toward main stem/riverine flooding (please refer to AHD from
National Water Center for additional details).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_MlIsVkAcfNZ8-0j0rt7Q-vW6zml0Pkf_GGFHkZWV8yHbRl9ZjGqcocX-1SGJEuATC9cY_soG0bEYSYd7PZDRcyN4VM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33738506 33408422 32598376 31858404 31518556
31118593 31078684 31778756 32428791 33238768
33728683
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 08:23:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100822
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1468
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...West central to Northeast Georgia...Adj.
East-central AL & Far Upstate SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100820Z - 101400Z

SUMMARY...Axis of prolonged moderate rainfall with occasional
embedded bursts up to 1"/hr. Broad area of 2-3"/6hrs may result
in localized flooding concerns though mostly across urban or
typically prone areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um loop shows Isaias has rapidly
deteriorated in vertical development and has transitioned toward
an extra-tropical cyclone in shape and structure. As a result,
frontal isentropic ascent has begun to be the main driver of
precipitation especially along and north of the core near the
deepening mid-level low in central AL. At the surface, strong
northeast to easterly flow is helping to reinforce, strengthen
FGEN as the warm sector is trying to advance northward as well.
This is steepening the isentropes across south-central Georgia to
coastal South Carolina though maintaining strong confluent inflow
along the cool conveyor belt.

Warm conveyor moisture and higher theta-E remains across the
eastern Gulf of America and is ascending across the front with
deep ample moisture and still in the 2-2.25" range near the
effective triple point near Columbus, GA. Modest conditionally
unstable air with MUCAPEs of 500-750 J/kg are expected to spread
over the slowly lifting warm front across central GA as well;
broad veering/WAA 850-700mb profiles will likely support some
sufficient convergence for slant-wise convective elements with a
SE to NE orientation through the TROWAL and will likely be transverse/orthogonal to a sharp deformation zone that bisects GA
from Columbus to Upstate SC which also appears to be the best
vertical ascent/divergence aloft due to the broad right entrance
of the upper-level jet. As such, broad .5"-.75"/hr rates will
have embedded potential for those SE to NW repeating slant-wise
ascent elements that could be up to 1-1.25"/hr occasionally. As
such, a slow rise of rainfall totals along the axis may reach
longer duration FFG values in the 3-6hr range though impacts
across metro Atlanta and other urban centers along the axis will
pose the greatest potential for slow rise flooding concerns. As
such, flash flooding is considered possible but definitely
transitioning from a rapid rise toward a broader areal, slow rise
of run-off and stream/main stem river flooding. Please refer to
any AHD products from the National Water Center.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IFr0__EbC7d9H_M4lA1nlTTOBJrjVT4kbQF1aTjDvXOFQzoiqQyVL4-Qq2IzhC_P59opvo0HXR7pwpPK_bpkLGFygQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34748306 33868284 33008323 32318396 32108504
32618546 33798500 34338455 34738388
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 09:06:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100905
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-101500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1469
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Plain of Georgia & South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100905Z - 101500Z

SUMMARY...Near coastal, slow moving thunderstorms with capability
of 2-3"/hr rates and localized totals of 3-5" may result in rapid
inundation flooding, especially near urban centers.

DISCUSSION...09z surface analysis shows effective warm front of
Post T.C. Isaias lifting northward through SW GA into northern GA;
though along the Atlantic coast, the front continues to sharpen
between the coast and the Gulf stream resulting in strengthening
FGEN and surface moisture convergence along the Georgia coast
northward to central SC coast before the front angles more due
east around 31.7N. VWP and RAP analsys continue to show 850 to
700mb confluent flow from the outer band nearing the central west
coast of FL across to the east coast within the core of the warm
conveyor belt now over the center of the Peninsula. Total PWats
remain very high over 2.25", but mostly driven below the boundary
layer given upper 70s to a spot or two of 80F Tds to feed the high
deep layer moisture convergence. A wedge of enhanced MLCAPEs
along the Gulf stream is nosing northward toward the frontal
zone/convergence axis helping to further spur new development
throughout the warm sector in the Georgia Bight. However, recently
new cells are developing along the coast as well.

Effective bulk shear is maximized along the new developing
stationary front axis (noted well in theta-E graident) that
crosses southern GA from the center of Isaias across to Hilton
Head Island. Values of 40 to 70kts, suggest increasing
organization and rotating updrafts near the front will slow
northward propagation while additionally increasing localized
moisture flux to support 2-3"/hr rates. Hi-Res CAMs are
struggling with the storm scale convergence for development though
HRRR appears to be simulating the recent coastal development
better than the WoFS and ARW solutions that favor cores in the
center of the Gulf Stream. Still, given efficient rainfall
production spots of 2-5" are possible and while being along the
sandy coastal plain, there are sufficient urban locations that
localized rapid inundation flooding remains possible through the
early morning hours, slowly expanding northward from central GA
toward Savannah and eventually near Charleston, SC.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7LEfNsYHfCDC-3jFS_uNXAuVUonj1hOUGI4mKH90_AMZW5Fz2nZy99rpz-OOkJlsrQ_ATkxe_auFPY1KBDitB-DMxyU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33737925 33357895 32607987 32308040 31928087
31368120 31058131 31218182 32048185 32838158
33418101 33728020
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 14:32:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101431
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1470
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Appalachians and
Interior Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101430Z - 102030Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will continue to be possible through
mid-afternoon as rainfall rates gradually increase with time.
Short-term urban impacts may occur across north-central to
northeast GA, with more terrain-focused impacts becoming a concern
across upstate SC and southwest NC this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a well-defined
TROWAL axis pivoting across large areas of the Southeast U.S.
around the eastern flank of what is now Post-T.C. Isaias. Deep
layer moist east to southeast flow into the southern Appalachians
and adjacent Piedmont areas of the Southeast will combine with a
gradual uptick in instability with the diurnal heating cycle to
promote a gradual increase in the coverage and intensity of shower
and thunderstorm activity going through the mid-afternoon hours.
This will be aided by divergent flow aloft downstream of the upper
trough which coupled with upslope flow into the higher terrain
should yield corridors of more focused lift.

The latest RAP analysis does show some elevated instability up
across areas of northeast GA up through southwest NC with as much
as 250 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This alone coupled with the
orographics will support efficient and rather shallow-top
convection, and especially with the available moisture in the low
to mid-levels of the column. As boundary layer heating increases,
slight deeper convection will become possible.

Already radar shows some some linear convective structures across
north-central GA that are lifting north-northeastward into the
general vicinity of northeast GA, with some uptick in shower
activity seen across upstate SC as well. The convective trends and
latest hires model guidance suggests an uptick in rainfall rates
in time, with potential for 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates.

Overall, the highest rates in the near-term should be across
north-central to northeast GA, but by mid-afternoon and beyond,
the rates up across upstate SC and southwest NC should increase.
Generally as much as 2 to 4 inches of additional rain are expected
for this MPD valid time period which is consistent with the latest
multi-model hires consensus.

Some urban flash flooding concerns will be possible in the
near-term across north-central to northeast GA, but more
terrain-focused impacts will gradually be possible this afternoon
for upstate SC and southwest NC.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9jL4ZyvSh0Iqty0GRu-Nqa4bk8H_KtrYmQXqNhJ3aJcuS_Y3hKNaG3s3ceHNh69fNUB-AtuUEozwqkuoAkavtBfgSjU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35998200 35828142 35448111 34988106 34628115
34098147 33268159 32898201 32808279 32998332
33578371 34488410 35088398 35518352 35888273
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 15:27:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101527
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-102125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1471
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...FL Big Bend/North FL...Southern and Eastern
GA...Central and Eastern SC...Southeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101525Z - 102125Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving bands and clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the coastal
plain of the Southeast U.S. High rainfall rates and localized
persistence of these rates will continue to foster a threat for
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar and surface observations shows broken bands and
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the coastal
plain of the Southeast U.S., with the greater concentrations of
activity generally noted across central and eastern SC, and to a
lesser extent across the FL Big Bend/north FL vicinity and into
far southern GA.

Deep layer moist/unstable flow continues to infiltrate much of the
region around the far eastern flanks of Post-T.C. Isaias, with
MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, and PWs generally around 2.25+
inches. This combination of strong thermodynamics and deep
moisture along with a belt of 30 to 40+ kt effective bulk shear
values should combine with additional surface heating and focused
low-level convergence for a gradual uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next several hours.

The greater coverage of convection and generally the higher
rainfall rates should tend to be across the SC Lowcountry/Pee Dee
region, where recent HRRR runs have been suggesting some very
well-organized and slow-moving supercell structures over the next
several hours. Some of this activity is currently occurring
onshore and also offshore of the SC coast. Some of the enhanced
focus of this convection is in response to a strong nearby warm
front which is enhancing forcing in conjunction with a strong
southeast low-level jet overrunning it. The HRRR is advertising
locally some very high rainfall totals given the slow cell-motions.

Areas farther south down across southern and eastern GA and
adjacent areas of north FL and the FL Big Bend will have the focus
of a surface trough and approaching upstream cold front that will
drive the low-level support along with boundary layer
heating/instability.

Additional rainfall totals across eastern/southern GA and into FL
will generally tend to be as high as 3 to 4+ inches of rain in a
very localized fashion. However, heavier totals of up to 4 to 6+
inches will be possible across areas of central and eastern SC
with these slow-moving supercell structures. It is possible that
by later this afternoon, areas of southeast NC may get into some
of these impacts as well. Additional areas of flash flooding will
continue to be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-3BkcH5uGFeSeVNTIgd9Nr4-k85HsjKtRMyFoWXTR1yRWjZBbPQsr3DOTYTjMAEG_VLZzk4_MIj17nIpMinZXZacLZ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...RAH...TAE...
TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34848011 34677876 34297796 33727790 33227831
32417923 31828047 30908131 29478257 29308347
29658403 30198387 31308335 32218258 32918185
33608149 34438118
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 18:12:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101812
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1472
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101810Z - 110010Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today
across the Southwest U.S. Locally heavy rainfall rates of up to 1
to 2 inches/hour will be possible, and this may result in some
areas of flash flooding. This will include potential impacts to
the normally dry washes, burn scars and slot canyons.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W GeoColor satellite imagery over the last
couple of hours along with MRMS data has been showing some
development and localized expansion of shower and thunderstorm
activity across areas of southwest UT, and separately down across
southwest AZ and adjacent areas of the northern Baja Peninsula.

Much of the current activity across southwest UT is more connected
to increasing deep layer moisture transport, orographics and some
modest upper-jet forcing over the region. Whereas down across
southwest AZ and the adjacent Baja Peninsula, it is more connected
to increasing southerly low-level moisture and instability
transport off of the Gulf of CA in response to the approach of
T.S. Rachel. This is confirmed by the latest experimental
CIRA-Layered Vapor Transport product.

A nose of SBCAPE values reaching 1000+ J/kg has reached up across
southwest AZ and far southeast CA, and over the next several
hours, a more regional increase in boundary layer instability is
expected via filtered solar insolation. The increase in
instability along with a broader increase in moisture through the
column will encourage the further development and expansion of
mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next several
hours. This will be further aided by areas of orographic ascent.

PW anomalies continue to increase in association with T.S.
Rachel's mid and high level moisture and the increasing low-level
Gulf of CA contribution, and by later today these anomalies for
many areas will be exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour with some
of the more organized convective cores today, and the latest hires
CAM guidance and general thermodynamic trends suggest at least an
isolated threat for some 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals. Areas of
southeast CA and southern AZ will be at greatest risk for these
totals given greater moisture and instability concentrations.

This may result in some areas of flash flooding, with the normally
dry washes, burn scar areas, and slot canyons at greatest risk for
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-2kw7EmV8IGh19OdSWVthPDVHh-9eznkJd7pSnioZ3ZAQGsZIv8sLn0Btbvhz5QVtEhmwbNKPKmKMUx9y5VqGj-8kyc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38921035 38820865 38030823 37060848 36130915
35320989 34181036 33161025 32160962 31290988
31221182 31591286 31951388 32201512 32221659
32541746 33221818 33771912 34421901 34681790
35101654 36051519 37311423 38081329 38611191
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 21:59:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102159
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1473
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Northeast GA...Western SC...Western NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 102200Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...The combination of increasing moisture transport, rising
instability, and steadfast southeasterly upslope flow will cause
hourly rainfall rates to surpass 1"/hr in mountainous terrain at
times. With soils growing more saturated, areas of flash flooding
are likely to occur. Locations most at risk are in steep/rugged
terrain where landslides are also possible.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis showed Post-T.C. Isaias over
central AL with its frontal structure consisting of an occluded
front stretching into western GA, a cold front extending south
towards the FL Panhandle, and an elongated stationary front over
central GA and SC. Doppler radar and GOES East visible imagery
show a cluster of storms along a pre-frontal trough over eastern
GA and southern SC, with renewed areas of showers and storms
forming in central GA close to the stationary front. Storms around
Augusta, GA produced between 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall rates and
farther north, 15-minute rainfall rates per MRMS have approached
0.40", suggesting >1"/hr rates have occurred in some spots. These
rates already caused MRMS CREST max unit streamflows to steadily
rise over the past hour with some readings approaching 200 cfs/smi
in western SC.

Both GFS/ECMWF model guidance show an IVT >800 kg/m/s turning N-NE
over central SC and oriented at the southern Appalachians between
00-06Z. As the stationary front to the south lifts as a warm front
this evening, elevated instability (MUCAPE) will also advance
northward with the 20Z HRRR and 18Z RRFS showing between 250-500
J/kg of MUCAPE in western SC/NC. Latest 18Z HREF probabilistic
guidance shows 6-hr QPF > 5-yr ARI probabilities up to 40-50% in
the Blue Ridge of western NC between 00-06Z this evening. When
accounting for prolonged upslope enhancement and warm cloud layers
over 12,000ft deep just east of the higher terrain, the
environment is becoming increasingly ripe for flash flooding in
the complex/rugged terrain of the western Carolinas, and
potentially as far south and west as northeast GA.

There is concern for landslides in the eastern most mountains this
evening. Should training thunderstorms ensue along these mountain
ranges, locally significant flash flooding will be possible this
evening with localized rainfall totals potentially exceeding 4".
Residents should ensure they have a reliable way of receiving
warnings and updates issued from their local WFOs and local
officials this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!58D73MLj37mB5Jq_6c3XWgdOtr5Fv50NePzf8XszgNWAKO3qL-DubMPR7bqYIyKQS2y90FGXUGGmQVSxRy6jsS80njo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36618120 36598097 36508085 36358075 36108074
35798081 35348102 34918134 33788203 33978317
34338368 34798388 35328380 35448357 35598311
35808267 36008212 36218169 36438155 36578142
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 23:59:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102359
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1474
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southern CA...Western AZ...Far Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110000Z - 110530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms ahead of Tropical Storm Rachel
will produce up to 2"/hr maximum rainfall rates and may cause
areas of flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Rachel continues to undergo
extratropical transition ahead of a closed low to the west of its
circulation. As Rachel's mid-level circulation is captured by the
closed low this evening, Rachel's 500mb center will be directed
almost due north just west of Tijuana while 200-500mb heights
aloft become negatively tilted, maximizing upper-level divergence
over southern CA. At the same time, Rachel's approach will
accelerate the IVTs aloft to exceptionally strong levels from the
Peninsular Range on east throughout the Lower Colorado River
Valley. By 06Z tonight, NAEFS shows IVT values >750 kg/m/s over
Yuma on north along the Colorado River, which would surpass the
highest observed IVT values for this time of year in the CFSR
climatology (1979-2009). Plus, the ECMWF show PWs that could
challenge monthly records in southern CA as Rachel's remnant
circulation moves ashore tonight. PWs over 1.5" will be common,
which are in excess of the 99.5 climatological percentile
throughout all of southern CA and the northern two-thirds of AZ
this evening.

These parameters all highlight a remarkable source of moisture
over the Desert Southwest for October, that also happened to be
paired with rising MUCAPE. RAP mesoanalysis shows 200-400 J/kg of
MUCAPE rises over the past 3-hours over the Lower CO River Valley.
MUCAPE within the highlighted areas along and east of the
Peninsular Range will reside between 500-1,000 J/kg, providing
sufficient instability for storms within this moist of an
environment to produce 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall rates. Storms
percolating over the Gulf of California will have the ability to
drift north into far southern CA and western AZ thanks to >30 kts
of effective bulk shear as well, helping to sustain these storms
even as they exit the higher theta-e environment to the south.
With repeated rounds of storms tracking over areas that have
already dealt with rounds of storms this afternoon, some soils
will become more saturated and at-risk for flash flooding this
evening. Poor drainage areas, rugged/steep terrain, and dry washes
are also vulnerable to flash flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79hT6UcI8imJXfVHT_4yqarGSKxiCjB3naJrrCN9Z2n2pZKo0Hff-Qy4smibsfhE57OE6LxJMTOHrWR_rDSvD9PikIE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35781436 35761408 35471356 34721338 33611348
33231359 32621394 32301444 32311511 32311586
32281661 32451722 32741749 33111734 33631684
34201668 34691633 35151575 35561512
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 04:17:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040416
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Gulf Coast from eastern LA to western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040414Z - 040930Z

Summary...Efficient rainfall with hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher) can be expected along portions of the
central Gulf Coast through 09Z. Isolated/localized flash flooding
may occur as a result.

Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery at 0345Z
showed a region of convection with cooling cloud tops and
occasional lightning from near the LA/MS/AL/western FL Peninsula
coasts to 100-150 miles south of the MS/AL coast. The region of
showers and thunderstorms was located near a low level trough axis
(focused within 850-700 mb layer) that extended WSW to ENE near or
just south of the central Gulf Coast. The environment sampled by
the 00Z LIX sounding and nearby GPS sensors indicated a highly
moist environment with 2.5 to 2.6 inches along the LA coast to
about 2.3 inches in the western FL Panhandle. MLCAPE was only
about 500 J/kg from the coast of LA to the FL Panhandle (00Z LIX
sounding and 03Z SPC mesoanalysis) with lower values to the north
and 500 to 1000+ J/kg to the south over the warm Gulf waters.

South to southeasterly steering flow and similarly oriented
925-850 mb layer winds along the Gulf Coast will favor repeating
and training rounds of heavy rain overnight near the slow moving
low level trough axis. Aiding ascent is a broad area of speed
divergence aloft across the central Gulf Coast given the presence
of a 60-90 kt 200 mb jet that increased with northward extent from
the Gulf Coast States toward the OH Valley. Multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist near the Gulf
Coast in the vicinity of the slow moving low level trough axis
with high short term rates. Efficient rainfall with wet bulb zero
heights in excess of 16 kft will support hourly rainfall of 2 to
3+ inches and 15-minute rates over 1 inch at times although heavy
rain cores may be transient over the next several hours. Flash
flooding may result, especially should there be overlap of high
rain rates with urban, low-lying and other areas of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_jm393WOkF-msEzF5LDlOka3RqvXHWx8-Bb2HpwTsSvH-FmUEDHNG0ToEldPpPtci8LxxYyNsYKXolM1SoI7iCbGuX0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30968774 30808582 30068570 29828601 29698669
29648799 28958890 29018978 29769030 30369022
30798958 30918882

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 07:51:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040751
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-041300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1439
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...central to coastal SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040748Z - 041300Z

SUMMARY...Localized slow moving and training of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across central to coastal SC
through the early morning hours. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
and totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher rates/totals possible)
will be possible through 13Z (9AM EDT).

DISCUSSION...Local radar and shortwave IR satellite imagery
identified an MCV over southeastern GA, about 45 miles southwest
of Savannah at 0730Z. Radar imagery also showed a recent increase
in shower activity over the Coastal Plain of SC, possibly linked
to an increase in the 925-850 mb flow as seen in recent short term
forecasts near the low level wave and possible outflow from
earlier showers/storms from the south/east.

The RAP has been relatively consistent with showing an increase of
low level convergence ahead of the MCV which is forecast to track northeastward, near the SC coast, through 13Z. The environment
across central to coastal SC contained high precipitable water
values of 2.2 to 2.4 inches and roughly 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE via
the 07Z SPC mesoanalysis. Mean steering flow was oriented from the
southwest at 10-15 kt and given the forecast increase in low level
winds across the Coastal Plain of SC, some slow movement/brief
training of heavy rain cores may occur over the next few hours.
Weak instability is a potential limiting factor for heavy rain
occurring but the high moisture environment may be enough to make
up for the lack of better instability. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches may result in storm totals of 2 to 4 inches through 13Z
(locally higher values possible) along with localized flash
flooding of urban areas or other locations of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8JqUwt7f6RMlET-Lvk4SF16jN09E3VnBrbzlHqAHQghVP3wAzZktjajtnYH9DSdCx6eGQsV3u89ajUX7qBZ2AOX3Ncw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34187902 33917856 33657840 33377845 32877894
32497943 32168013 32198077 32728112 33158120
33518088 33908028 34177987

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 10:01:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041001
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-041420-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...central Gulf Coast into FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040959Z - 041420Z

Summary...A localized flash flood threat will continue for at
least another 3-5 hours across portions of the central Gulf Coast
into the western FL Panhandle. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) should be expected.

Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery at 0930Z
showed a low to mid-level vorticity max just west of Mobile Bay,
tracking toward the northeast. This feature was embedded along a
broader low to mid-level trough axis that was located along the
central Gulf Coast. The coldest cloud tops on infrared imagery
combined with GLM data showed an area of likely heavy rain just
offshore of the western FL Panhandle between Miramar Beach and
Saint Joseph Bay, advancing toward land.

Blended TPW imagery and GPS data showed that precipitable water
values remained high, between 2.3 and 2.5 inches along the Gulf
Coast from MS to the western FL Panhandle but SPC mesoanalysis
data from 09Z indicated appreciable instability remained limited
to the immediate coastal locations with ~500 J/kg. Inland of the
coast, MLCAPE values were 250 J/kg at the highest. Broad upper
level jet induced divergence will continue across the central Gulf
Coast through mid-morning which should provide increased ascent
over the region.

Scattered regions of heavy rainfall are expected to continue
advancing into the western FL Panhandle, ahead of and east the
vorticity max (aligned with the greatest low level moisture
transport) with rainfall intensity decreasing with northward
extent. Back to the west, while 0930Z cloud tops and available
radar imagery were not indicative of heavy rain across southern
MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, weak low level
convergence over the next few hours may allow for isolated
development of heavy showers/thunderstorms later this morning with
efficient rainfall production. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher possible) will remain a concern which could
result in isolated spots of flash flooding through at least 14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!66Hrl6larpQAXewF03_iQdAy7BLFNyJC-Qtr7Drvjcwyj4lPxIbCLC2mNx9Fkylwhyv-DEaroZvXSGOSsDPaseqAj34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30998837 30978749 30808582 29798534 29608568
29958656 30108744 30138813 30018890 30008921
30178945 30548946 30818905

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 14:16:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041416
FFGMPD
TXZ000-042014-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041414Z - 042014Z

Summary...Repeating showers and thunderstorms across South Texas
may lead to localized flash flooding through this afternoon.

Discussion...The latest analysis across the region shows a
stationary boundary draped right along the Texas coast. This
feature, combined with the very tropical airmass, is the main
driving factor for repeating showers and thunderstorms across
South Texas this morning.

The tropical airmass is characterized by precipitable water values
over 2 inches, locally over 2.5" (CFP 12Z sounding was 2.62").
Very deep warm cloud depths and the skinny CAPE profiles are all
indicative of a very efficient warm rain processes. A steady flux
of moisture transport into the area will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours.

Latest hi-res guidance showers scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through at least 18Z followed by more scattered
activity between 18Z and 00Z. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
locally higher up to 4 to 5 inches, will be possible in the
outlook area over the next 6 hours.

The main risk of flash flooding will be for any urban location and
poor drainage areas.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7eWZpMpJ4oRsdlYoi1JGkJu1dMXqmuHCm7QyJ1AB69hSVKlRkZ8-lyzu_9W_S_6CZycZWAidnqaGQC1au6VjZ-TT0cs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27229766 27189725 27139728 26559725 26349702
25949710 25599721 25949771 26319769 26959772

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 15:50:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041550
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041547Z - 042147Z

Summary...Very efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms
along the central Gulf coast will bring a risk of flash flooding
through this afternoon.

Discussion...Very moist air in place across the region today
interacting with a weak surface boundary will promote the
continued development of slower moving showers and thunderstorms
along the central Gulf coast through this afternoon.

As of 16Z, available radar imagery shows a shield of widespread
showers drifting east/northeast from southeast Louisiana eastward
into the western Florida Panhandle. This activity lies in the
vicinity of a surface trough which is aiding the overall forcing
and lift in the region. A mesoanalysis showed precipitable water
values well in excess of 2 inches, locally as high as 2.5 inches
(2.47" 12Z LIX sounding).

Most of the hi-res guidance including the HRRR shows a continued
drift of the activity through the afternoon hours, with a greater
concentration of more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and
perhaps extending eastward through southern Alabama. Given the
very moist airmass (deep warm cloud depths and tall/thin CAPE
profiles), the activity will be very efficient rain producers.
This is likely to result in pockets of localized higher rainfall
totals, potentially amounts of 2 to 4 inches through this
afternoon. The main limiting factor to more extreme totals is the
lack of deeper instability as the atmosphere has been worked over
already this morning.

The main risk of flash flooding will be urban areas, poor drainage
locations, and other low-lying sensitive locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8EwcdDdtcfrOJxWVK5k2hUS__PvIYY7dpQM0ggyIe7Ho4mrGYId89p8GHvjVnpVDwmFw8DgRw97uG6AcV6xzao3-Q_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118691 31058570 30718491 30498476 30128464
29728487 29678550 30068632 30238724 30178770
29808856 29408895 29018945 29359034 30259045
30798922 31058800

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 18:21:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041821
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-050018-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia...Northeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041818Z - 050018Z

Summary...Slow moving, efficient rain producing showers and
thunderstorms may lead to localized flash flooding this afternoon
across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

Discussion...As of early afternoon, the latest radar imagery
across the region showed increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Florida into southeast coastal
Georgia. This activity is being fueled by the very moist airmass
in place, characterized by precipitable water values well in
excess of 2 inches, and general proximity to a stationary boundary
draped west to east across the interior Southeast to coastal South
Carolina. Earlier breaks in the cloud pushed the surface-based
CAPE values above 2000 J/kg with the highest amounts (2500+ J/kg)
closer to the coast.

The expectation is that the activity will continue drifting
east/northeast while also increase in coverage during the peak
heating / instability of the day. Hi-res models show scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms filling in the outlook area
with relatively slow storm motions. Given the moist airmass and
very warm cloud depths in place, any shower or storm will be quite
efficient rain producers, resulting in hourly rain totals between
1 and 2 inches in spots, with at least a low end chance of hourly
totals greater than 2 inches (most likely right along the coast
where the greater instability lies).

This type of rainfall in a short period can result in localized
flash flooding, particularly for urban areas, poor drainage spots,
or other low-lying vulnerable locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Ti51XK3V1cGxQ5G7mpQld9iloyjpHU3riYPQzqLJi5m-KWU2H9Z4qh8KNxLTK1T1-Ak89b-xm4Hvi5sUZzZ8xLOAFU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32338149 32228094 32008082 31718080 31328119
29998130 30078213 30698262 31268269 31908294
32278222

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 19:02:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1444
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Central Alabama and Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041900Z - 050100Z

Summary...Locally heavy rainfall this afternoon may lead to a few
instances of flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and
other poor drainage locations.

Discussion...Radar imagery this afternoon shows a developing line
of showers and embedded thunderstorms across portions of
east-central Mississippi eastward through central Alabama and into
central Georgia. This activity is developing along a stationary
boundary draped in the area. Along and south of the boundary, the
airmass is quite moist with PWs in excess of 2 inches while
instability is marginal but sufficient (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE).

Storm motions are expected to be on the slower side this afternoon
with minimal strong forcing or pushing of the boundary. Some
repeating or training of the showers/storms is possible as well
with the gradual east/southeast drifting of the activity. Finally,
the storms will be rather efficient rain producers as warm cloud
depths are quite high and soundings show the favored tall/skinny
CAPE profiles.

Hi-res models and HREF/RRFS probabilities show the potential for
pockets of 1-2 inch totals through 00Z this evening with isolated
higher amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible. While some of this
rain will be welcome/beneficial, the efficiency of the rain may
lead to excessive runoff and cause isolated/localized flash
flooding, particularly for the urban areas or other poor draining
locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-azjcFki9-xu6Kv7pWVzPn24QaB_0bl-Xu5IAD-AIRi-c270gAYXIVLwc-5cWNGwIrlkVzgJW0vCl6NsuAdD08b0YlQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34288522 34058406 33828361 33358363 32918399
32758518 32758670 32558794 32598827 33198818
33368802 33848698

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 20:03:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042002
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050201-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1445
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042001Z - 050201Z

Summary...A risk of flash flooding continues through this evening
across the central Gulf Coast due to slow moving thunderstorms.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely with
localized higher amounts up to 6 inches possible.

Discussion...Widespread showers and thunderstorms drifting east
along the central Gulf Coast this afternoon will continue to pose
a flash flood risk into this evening. Available radar imagery as
of 20Z shows the most steady and intense rain showers and storms
across southern MS moving into southern Alabama and far western
Florida Panhandle. This activity is tied to a weak mid-level wave
moving eastward with a surface trough noted in the region as well
from the 18Z analysis.

The environment remains very supportive for intense rain rates and
localized higher rain totals. With PWs well above 2 inches,
locally 2.5"+, warm cloud depths, and tall/skinny CAPE profiles -
the activity will be quite efficient rain producers. Additionally,
a narrow axis of SBCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg exists right along the
coast, particularly southern MS and southern AL, which will
further aid in the higher rain rates.

Guidance is keying in on the highest rain totals over the next 4-6
hours to be across southern Alabama into far western Florida
Panhandle where isolated amounts between 3-6" are possible (HREF
neighborhood probabilities for exceeding 5" are between 15-25
percent along the coast).

As a result, instances of flash flooding will be likely through
this evening, particularly for the urban areas, poor drainage
spots, and other low-lying vulnerable locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_U4qGE0fA079nRONfg3fQd2uWK4Jj3jz69EPUbzaPza7ho3vJlMhkZcyOHgEfo1tPvJW4XdTvLN4Ey9cGeS972P6d0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31368785 31338718 30998637 30238654 29918714
29848809 29798872 29588926 29838959 30278964
30768932 31228847

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 21:32:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042132
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Southwest MS & Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042130Z - 050130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could
continue for another 3-4 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to percolate near
a front stretching across the region. Precipitable water values
are 2.3-2.6" per GPS data. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts. ML
CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg. Difluence aloft is being caused by a
strong upper level shortwave near the ArkLaTex. Low-level
east-northeasterlies appear to be occasionally balancing the upper
level west-southwesterly flow, which is leading to a bit of
rainfall efficiency.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF have somewhat different ideas on how long
the convection will hold on, with the REFS showing an earlier time
of dissipation than the HREF. At the moment, the HREF appears to
have a slightly better idea on placement -- though both appear too
far northwest -- so used its horizon. Over the next 3-4 hours,
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to show
brief backbuilding/training across the region, which could
continue to lead to hourly rain amounts to 3". There should be
some tendency for the convective focus/front to edge southeast
with time, which potentially keeps a flash flood risk for New
Orleans. This heavy rainfall would be most problematic in urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_XGL3ljNRp2IC0XHhmN6uCVt-sS54Cel5Ks8222BL1XlnFBXFbSIEsvHEu1Z88Fd0W0tgRpz_8OZiLFCcsKXiqjEm2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31308992 31178957 30268965 29469021 29219111
29829199 30609122

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 21:51:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042151
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...western AL & south-central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042150Z - 050250Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have
developed across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3" could lead
to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have developed on either
side of a front stretching across south-central MS. Difluence
aloft is being aided by shortwaves near the IL/IN border and
across the ArkLaTex. Precipitable water values of 2.3-2.6" exist
here per GPS data. Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts. ML
CAPE is ~1000 J/kg. Low-level east-northeast flow is being
countered by west-southwest flow aloft, which is aiding rainfall
efficiency.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF indicate that heavy rainfall could continue
through 03z, which appears to be due to a decline in regional
ML/MUCAPE and possibly some CIN development after sunset. With
the front edging southeast with time, there should be a tendency
for the convection to follow suit. The ingredients available
support the idea of hourly rain amounts to 3", which would be most
problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4hlO5nes7S94lLfOlFEm0_tkbhR1fDwZlZMa5G9WLPntjTc_j9xvtQVWWsOHcd4rzofszhHws4HvT7fDGM1hu4Ss3es$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32538786 31528798 30978973 31209053 31929066
32258933

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 00:09:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050009
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-050607-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1448
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...eastern GA & southern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050007Z - 050607Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are capable of
producing 3" in an hour. Flash flooding is possible, particularly
in urban areas.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from
Millens GA to Charleston SC. There are located within the warm
advection pattern ahead of a frontal wave in a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. An upper low in the Bahamas and upper level troughing
in the Great Lakes are helping difluence aloft. Precipitable
water values of 2.25" exist here per GPS data and RAP forecast
fields. Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts. ML CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg exists here.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF guidance indicate that heavy rain issues
could persist at late as 06z in this region. Given the
ingredients at hand, hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8_FpfD-qBO-NiK2SShu8KMzOjTNhTsDOXSwGFGUP4MaIZemzCKwOK-sMe0DB7zHJjESXEZLR27-KoLW9CowC6oG9CzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33077929 32587986 31728099 32368281 32988254

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 02:53:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050253
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1449
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1052 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050251Z - 050700Z

Summary...Training and repeating rounds of showers/thunderstorms
may result in isolated flash flooding across far southern TX over
the next 2-4 hours. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be
possible.

Discussion...Radar imagery from KBRO showed a NNE to SSW oriented
axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms extending from ~25
miles east of Padre Island into and across the Lower Laguna Madre
into eastern Willacy and Cameron counties. This axis appeared to
be aligned with a zone of lower level convergence that was located
near 700 mb. Mean steering flow as aligned with this axis,
allowing for repeating and brief training of heavy rain with
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches from along the coast
to offshore.

The environment across southern TX contained PWs of 2.3 to 2.5
inches and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (via 00Z BRO and CRP
soundings). SPC mesoanalysis data from 02Z showed a tight gradient
in CAPE along the coast with lower values to the west and higher
values into the western Gulf.

The future movement and intensity of the low level convergence
axis is uncertain but recent RAP forecasts show the axis
translating slowly south over time. Whether this happens or not is
unclear at this time, but current short term satellite/radar
trends suggest at least a 1-2 hour potential for training of heavy
rain into portions of southern TX. Showers and thunderstorms will
likely be dominated by warm rain processes, resulting in the
potential for rapid rainfall accumulation with hourly rainfall
totals of 2 to 3+ inches. Overlap of heavy rain with urban and
other poorly draining locations may result in flash flooding
through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6UmGFF2NGR8YuULUMI8WamqKzNxx-8QYRdsW822QYpnmKTJqeVHJo6wxen4euNFVI8CawNhxd_Xz25fpZznZlc0gtBk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27379752 27379729 27249715 26949711 26439698
26029693 25779697 25579719 25689756 25889796
26389796 27109772

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 03:42:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110342
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1475
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Eastern Foothills...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110345Z - 110930Z

SUMMARY...Strong upslope flow with embedded convective lines
moving from south to north to further enhanced localized rain
rates up to 1.25"/hr (1.5"/hr in lower Foothills). Broad 1-2"
through Southern Appalachians with more focused 2-3" totals likely
to maintain flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows Post T.C. Isaias center
over N AL with an occluded front through to a triple point low
northeast of Atlanta, GA, where a southward attendant cold front
is starting to press more eastward under influence of shortwave
rotating through the southeast quadrant of the upper-low. The
stationary front connects northeastward toward a secondary surface
wave southeast of Anderson, SC; likely near the western edge of
the warm conveyor belt and deepest moisture. RAP analysis depicts
nose of 1250-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE near this wave and enhanced deep
layer convergence. This aligns northward through the TROWAL and
is supported a south to north band of embedded convective cells
from Spartanburg, SC to Burke, NC county capable of 1-1.5"/hr
rates. Very slow eastward push has supported localized 2-3"
totals in the last few hours and invigorated a corridor of ongoing
flash flooding.

From the secondary low, a warm front bisects SC toward Georgetown,
this front will continue to lift northward through the early
overnight period, but north of the boundary surface to 925mb winds
of 30-40kts will continue to push moderately moist air into the NC
and SW VA Appalachians in advance of the stronger convergent bands
as they press eastward. CIRA LVT in the surface to 850mb layer
remains very impressive across NC with 200+ kg/m/s through the
state allowing for solid upslope and consistent moderate rainfall
with rates up to .5"/hr; but 850-700mb and 700-500mb southerly
flow at 40-50kts and modest veering/convergent wind profile fairly
orthogonal to the terrain will continue to support the higher LVT
through greater depth and any embedded convective cores could
still support localized 1.25-1.5"/hr totals.

The cells along the cold front should be a bit more scattered in
nature given slightly reduced deeper layer moisture but after
solid rains/totals of 3-6" earlier through the day in NC, any
additional rainfall at rates over 1"/hr and additional spot totals
of 2-3"+ are likely to reaggrivate flash flooding conditions and
expand larger streams/riverine flooding through the overnight
hours, especially as FFG values continue to drop below 1-1.5"/hr
and <2.5/3hrs in much of the MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4yBHF1xz06n1VR2GqHgZyF8t3gamm0XTayCjEwVEO3KPZk5LfSQA0XwVhQDRrPwBCo1OHrhtnFqxnCtx_UmmWRlL-RI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37407959 36797929 36128004 35468042 34948078
34618099 34228132 33548221 33658288 34138344
34838356 35218322 35788249 36068195 36598137
37028064 37318007
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 04:58:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110458
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1476
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...Southern Nevada...Western
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110500Z - 111100Z

SUMMARY...Post T.C. Rachel

DISCUSSION...Inner core of Post T.C. Rachel is continuing to
weaken from small embedded convective elements into a broader
shield of moderate precipitation along the downshear northern edge
coming into far SW California. However, some vorticity stretching
and localized convergent surface to boundary layer convergence
response is starting in earnest along the eastern slopes of the
Peninsular Range as a surface low spreads/stretches through in the
Lower Colorado River Valley. Conditionally unstable air supported
by the warm shallow seas of the Gulf of California are drawn
northward as MLCAPEs increase as weak CAA aloft spreads across the
Lower Colorado as well; raising from 500 J/kg toward 750-1000 J/kg
by 08z across SW AZ. Mid-level vorticity center is also rounding
the eastern side of the deeper cyclone and dPVA is helping to
sharpen an deformation zone/isentropic boundary from the center of
Rachel through the Inland Empire toward southern Nevada. Deep
layer convergence from the Southeast will further help to expand
the convective cluster currently over northern Baja California
through the Inland Empire. Total moisture has also increased
toward 1.75" though CIRA LVT in the 850-700mb layer ranges from
150-200 kg/m/s starting to enter far SE CA/SW AZ. As such rates
of 1-1.5"/hr are becoming increasingly possible especially given
any aid from upslope along the eastern portions of the Peninsular
Ranges. As such localized totals of 1.5-2.5" is becoming probable
though an isolated 3" total is possible and likely to induce
localized flash flooding given 3-6hr FFG values are generally
2-2.25".

Further downstream, as height-falls continue from SW to NE and the
deformation zone/FGEN surface begins to sharpen through S NV;
scattered narrow thunderstorms will develop but further proximity
from the low, cell motions will be more south to north or SSE to
NNW across E Riverside/San Bernadino and into W AZ. Stronger
instability and increasing wind speeds upstream will help foster
potential for back-building and therefore short periods of
repeating/training may allow for some localized .5-1" totals
eventually into S NV. This may even intersect urban Las
Vegas/Henderson and which would be particularly concerning but
overall confidence in a specific cell or two to cross the urban
center is still hard to lock down given widely scattered to
scattered expected coverage over the next 4-6hrs or so.

A more isolated nature with effective warm sector weakly rotating
cells may also manifest over the Low deserts, perhaps even Sun
Valley of westernn and south-central AZ, eventually toward the
western Mogollon Rim areas of Yavapai and Mohave counties. While
more isolated, the stronger updraft rotations may also result in
broader updraft/downdrafts to increase residency time (along with
reduced forward speed from cell rotation). Isolated spots may
result in localized flash flooding conditions across this area as
well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZvhqdG4-E8j_xMJInaa0zgNYjbFqe6Ypb8bH1WS5NS9Ku_9wm-RdyB-HcD-ultwQ0AHR1OUTdfK7aYPnQsabLqz7Ck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37101508 36981411 36311257 34971184 33651160
32261168 31591214 32131379 32201419 32461505
32481611 32451707 32981745 33801750 35241704
36441630
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 09:08:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110908
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1477
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Blue Ridge of Virginia, North Carolina and
northern South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110910Z - 111500Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged solid moisture flux into terrain with
occasional localized south to north moving convective elements
enhancing rates to 1"+/hr to add additional 1-2" with localized 3"
spots along Blue Ridge. Flooding likely to continue and expand in
coverage northward with time.

DISCUSSION...Impressive GOES-E WV suite shows shortwave along
eastern side has rotated north to recenter the deeper mid-level
cyclone over central KY. This is lifting the center of Isaias
northward into the Cumberland Plateau while also advancing the
cold front out of GA into the Upstate of SC. Stationary front
remains near the SC/NC border and is supporting active strong
convection though the Gulf Stream. The combination is helping to
maintain a solid low to mid-level gradient with cool conveyor belt
still fluxing enhanced moisture north of the front westward into
the terrain. CIRA LVT values are weakening slightly but remain
above 150 kg/m/s across central VA given .75-.8" advected on
30-40kts centered around 925mb. Aloft, the warm conveyor belt is
broadening and shifting axis toward the Gulf Stream and 850-500
LPW layers have seen a slow decrease; still 35-45kts of veering
southwest to southerly flow is starting to intersect the terrain a
bit more obliquely than earlier this morning and LVT values are
more around 100-150 kg and narrowing toward the western branch of
the WCB, just in advance of the cold front. As such, orographic
ascent will support a third to half inch per hour, allowing for a
broad area of 1-2" across the eastern slopes of the central
Appalachians as the triple point lifts northeastward.

Instability wedge remains about 500-1000 J/kg across SC, but is
narrowing as well given limited northward surge of the effective
warm front; convergence ahead of the front is still spurring
convective development but it remains more scattered and less
vigorous, continuous as before. Still given ample moisture, rates
of 1-1.25"/hr remain possible across Upstate SC into the Foothills
of W NC and far SW VA. Spots of additional 2-3" are possible but
more likely to be isolated to widely scattered in nature. Given
FFG values across far Upstate SC and W NC (less than .75" for all
hours) are significantly compromised, even the remaining showers
are likely to maintain flash flooding/broader riverine flooding
this morning. As the TROWAL corridor shifts eastward intersecting
into SW VA, FFG values have reduced to less than 1" for most hours
as well and exceedance is probable. However, further north into
central western VA, overall totals remain below 2" for the storm
and additional 1-3" would bring some spots closer to FFG values
but potential are less likely than further southwestward along the
Blue Ridge Range.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_N9-tsPRsGzMMHrbvErWhojc7Psq1XEQraeDToVubpXxQHDm3tBfDr8B3C6C_oMNNfTXyZqCEWcW5t0buGC0SFE4fi4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39007830 38767815 38127848 37027946 35778017
34768167 35028243 35458258 36228168 36778112
37058078 37777996 38467915 38827883
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 11:14:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111114
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1478
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111113Z - 111700Z

SUMMARY...Post.T.C Rachel continues to rapidly lift northeastward
and inland across southeast CA, with its moisture and related
heavy rainfall continuing to impact the broader Southwest U.S.
Additional areas of flash flooding are expected going through the
morning hours, with locally significant impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery, surface
observations and radar data shows the low center associated with
Post-T.C. Rachel advancing quickly to the northeast across
southeast CA. Heavy rainfall associated with an expanding
mid-level deformation zone and frontogenesis axis is seen lifting
quickly across southeast CA up through southern NV and into
southwest UT.

Some discrete areas of convection are noted south and east of the
low center impacting adjacent areas of southern CA up through far
southern NV and across central to northwest AZ. A nose of MUCAPE
values reaching 500 to 1000 J/kg is aligned with the deeper layer
southerly flow around thw eastern flank of Rachel. This coupled
with very strong 850/700 mb moisture flux and orographic ascent
over areas of higher terrain will encourage additional areas of
convection going through the morning hours. In fact, the latest
RAP analysis shows mean layer winds between 850/700mb on the order
of 50 to 60 kts impacting central and western AZ and far southeast
CA which is nosing toward southern NV and southwest UT.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching up to 1.5 inches/hour
with the stronger convective cells. However, the rapid motion of
Rachel off to the northeast over the next several hours will at
least locally mitigate the heavy rainfall threat to an extent.
Regardless, the 06Z HREF/REFS consensus would suggest an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain near the path of Rachel, with
potential for isolated max totals near 5 inches given the very
strong moisture transport and orographic forcing/upslope flow into
the terrain.

Given the rainfall rates and totals expected over the next several
hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are expected, and the
more sensitive burn scar locations, slot canyon areas, and
normally dry washes will be susceptible to impacts which may
locally be significant.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ijys4KtTNzkk_2YV9VZ56a5vhkN_2P2lHrKtHeliS1kb81f_N-yzaZ6qZdcBQgc8Xi_BY7cxSiiZYsaPDLRm76jqIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39441346 39151187 38341099 37461074 35721068
33860981 33021023 32851112 33591311 33821438
33381562 32521633 32671739 33921798 35461725
37571660 39221509
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 16:12:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111611
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-112210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1479
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast OH...Northeast
KY...Central and Western WV...Southwest PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111610Z - 112210Z

SUMMARY...Some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected going through the afternoon hours. Locally high rainfall
rates, slow cell-motions and wet antecedent conditions will likely
support some areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
some partial clearing skies and thus an uptick in solar insolation
across areas of central and western WV and southeast OH. The upper
low associated with Post-T.C. Isaias continues to advance off to
the east across portions of the Upper OH and TN Valley region and
is expected to be moving into the central Appalachians by later
this afternoon.

This deep layer cyclonic energy will foster some modest steepening
of mid-level lapse rates over the next few hours which coupled
with an uptick in boundary layer instability should help foster an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. MUCAPE values are
already locally around 500 J/kg, and some increase in this
magnitude can be expected through mid to late afternoon. In
addition to greater coverage of convection, the increase in
instability coupled with local orographics should an increase in
rainfall rates.

The latest 12Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour are likely with the stronger convective cells.
The cell-motions are likely to be rather slow, and with the aid of
orographics over the higher terrain of the central Appalachians,
some pockets of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible by
late this afternoon.

Antecedent soil conditions are quite sensitive with low FFGs and
relatively elevated streamflows from earlier rainfall. The
additional rainfall going through this afternoon will have a
stronger convective footprint that will encourage more substantial
runoff concerns at least locally. The highest HREF/REFS
probabilities of seeing FFG exceedance are over central and
western WV, but with the sensitivities more regionally that are in
place, a relatively broader concern for areas of flash flooding is
expected going through this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7jD4n5aK7W6eCd9FuWNYNNcT0dA30e-4ZSi-qyYGl0VAcplJ3J21iDpc5BHceCesYAipWc5tjnqZn2K1urYZ6wUgw3c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40698034 40577930 39707931 38567981 37858056
37498134 37268261 37478364 38108427 38798420
39208378 39998165
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:01:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111700
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-112300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1480
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Northern AZ...Southeast
CA...Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111700Z - 112300Z

SUMMARY...Post-T.C. Rachel and an amplifying longwave trough over
the West Coast will direct exceptional amounts of moisture over
the interior Southwest today. Additional flash flooding is likely
with thunderstorms capable of producing between 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates. Locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES satellite is telling quite an active story this
morning with Rachel's moisture now fully merged with a robust
upper-level trough in the West. 12Z soundings from a pair of
Southwest sites (Las Vegas, San Diego) all showed highly saturated
atmospheric profiles with PWs that were above the 99.5
climatological percentile. Visible satellite showed solid surface
based heating getting underway in southern AZ and even in portions
of north-central AZ, where instability will gradually increase
this morning. RAP mesoanalysis shows >400 J/kg of SBCAPE has
already started to develop over much of AZ. Strong southerly flow
over AZ and into southern UT is also aiding in upslope enhanced
rainfall rates, which per MRMS 15-minute rainfall rates, suggest
just under 1"/hr rainfall rates have occurred south and east of
Flagstaff.

As instability increases, so too will the rainfall rates. The
confidence in increasing rainfall rates is helped by a highly
anomalous vapor moisture transport aloft. Both ECMWF and NAEFS
SATs show IVTs approaching 750 kg/m/s, which is surpassing the
maximum observed IVTs in the CFSR database (1979-2009). This is
largely due to SWrly 850-700mb wind that are above the 99th
climatological percentile, significantly influencing both the
moisture transport and upslope enhancement.

Combined with soils that are becoming overly saturated with each
passing heavy shower and thunderstorm, the setup is there for more
areas of flash flooding today. The latest 12Z HREF probabilities
show a concerning signal for 35-45% odds for 6-hr QPF > 100yr ARIs
around Zion Nat'l Park between 18-00Z this afternoon. The 15Z WoFS
show thunderstorms capable of producing 0.1-0.2"/5-minute rainfall
rates, indicating the potential for hourly rates as high as 2"/hr
south and west of the Mogollon Rim and on to the Lower CO Valley.
These parameters and signals all conclude that additional areas of
flash flooding are likely today, and both significant and
life-threatening flooding is possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bOh9BKb3rrkhPh6DSRq9Zla4riEhhpBStEniW1s1poHjulsQglym5vMOKp8w7E65BqSM-FqiuNfJHAq0teg-xmqb0M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38501167 38421023 38260955 37740918 36360961
35030935 34380997 34041067 34021111 33941167
33801236 33641322 33271382 33261433 33411464
33801498 34201542 34621568 35011609 35651605
36781584 37621537 38281429 38411304
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:56:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111756
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-112355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1481
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Intermountain West

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111755Z - 112355Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall in association with Post-T.C. Rachel will
continue to lift north up across portions of the Intermountain
West, including areas of eastern NV, central/northern UT, and into
southeast ID. Persistent areas of heavy rain may result in some
flooding concerns this afternoon including a localized burn scar
flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W satellite imagery along with OSPO
ALPW data shows a deep plume of tropical moisture in association
with Post-T.C. Rachel continuing to rapidly advance well inland
across portions of the Intermountain West. A well-defined frontal
zone across the Great Basin will be advancing gradually east and
continuing to interact with this moisture axis and the elongating
low and mid-level vort energy from Rachel.

The combination of this moisture with convergence along the front,
along with strong orographics/upslope southerly flow in the
850/700 mb layer across the region will continue to foster areas
of heavy rainfall with some potential for embedded convective
elements. Some MUCAPE values reaching 500+ J/kg are nosing up
across southern and central UT, and this nose of modest
instability may tend to advance farther north into northern UT
this afternoon to facilitate the convective threat. GOES-W visible
satellite images due to show areas of partial clearing across
central and western UT, and the increase in solar insolation
should favor an uptick in boundary layer instability.

Enhanced 850/700mb moisture flux and the uptick in instability may
favor some rainfall rates with any convective elements reaching as
high as 1 inch/hour. The ejecting remnant energy of Rachel with
the orographics will tend to support these higher rates also being
a bit more focused over areas of higher terrain.

Additional rainfall amounts through this afternoon of up to 2
inches will be possible, and especially where any heavier rainfall
rates with convection materialize. These additional rains may
cause some areas of flooding, with there being a localized burn
scar flash flood threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8HM6JPcYgwcSv0bG7HzzmP7tLrgultsMs_FMsjA0erqjNvbMs4kqxgF4S6uy9ELN3I_4g_uBb8X8t62mSesuOI950NQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43631200 43551111 42511082 40801093 39671122
38521203 38471312 38501417 39501454 40781420
41881373 42991300
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 22:45:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112245
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1482
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Ohio Valley...Central Appalachians...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112245Z - 120430Z

SUMMARY...A strengthening area of low pressure in central Virginia
is likely to produce a pivoting axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms over soils that received 1.5-3" of rainfall today.
With rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr possible, and more urban
communities containing more hydrophobic surfaces at-risk, flash
flooding will be possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis shows a surface low over
southern WV weakening at the same time surface pressures are
lowering in the Mid-Atlantic. The 850mb low over central WV
continues its slow progression east with with elevated moisture
and theta-e levels starting to decrease as the best lift and
moisture moves east of the Appalachians. Still, its slow
progression is resulting in storm storms producing localized
rainfall rates of 1"/hr over the flashy portions of western WV.
Farther east, a warm front is slowly lifting north and west over
the DelMarVa, but is unlikely to make it west of the I-95 corridor
between DC and Baltimore.

Over the next few hours, as the surface low strengthens in central
VA, the surface-925mb flow will intersect the warm front and its
vapor transport will revolve around the 925mb low's northern and
western flank. This setup not only leads to some additional
upslope enhancement into the central Appalachians (particuarly the
Blue Ridge), but also causes surface-925mb FGEN over the I-95
corridor. 21Z RAP shows >1.5" PWs pivoting over northern VA,
northeast MD, and into the Delaware Valley at the same time that
as much as 500 J/kg of MUCAPE becomes available. Most RAP model
soundings on the 21Z HRRR show warm cloud layers between
10,000-12,000ft deep, and low-mid level RH values averaging close
to 90%.

The low pressure system exit off the coast later tonight, and the
window for slower moving storms may be a few hours at most. That
said, FFGs have dipped substantially over western and northern VA,
central MD, and even as far north and east as southeast PA with
some 1-hr FFGs under 1". University of Maryland mesonet sites show
between 2-3" of rain have fallen since midnight in central MD, and
when factoring in these storms occurring near a more urbanized
corridor from northern VA to southeast PA, there is some concern
that 1-2"/hr rainfall rates could result in localized flash
flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_s35M4b3Y6BufG4aDbpR0dkJlu9s9nBr-Ifv0WDcnnRh1G37poB1bP8JtBGpx7rKmyPLxqmU5OPmp0cwPeETkPNeDx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40187596 40167499 39637503 38517636 37927713
37347821 37417913 37608043 37968165 38328211
38928219 39528179 39267989 39567818 40077676
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 23:33:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112333
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1483
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Southern UT...Southeast
NV...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112330Z - 120430Z

SUMMARY...The interior Southwest will continue to see scattered
thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates of 1"/hr atop
increasingly sensitive soils. Additional areas of flash flooding
are likely with locally significant flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...The prolonged fetch of anomalous IVTs surpassing 500
kg/m/s and PWs above the 97.5 climatological percentile will
continue into the first half of the evening. Persistent SWrly
700mb winds will continue to favor upslope enhancement along
various mountain ranges (Mogollon Rim, Zion Nat'l Park, San Juan).
CAPE levels are beginning to come down as surface based heating
decreases, but soils remain quite saturated. Southeast NV,
southwest UT, and northern AZ contain 50-75% soil saturation per
FLASH CREST with localized values topping 75%. Latest 22Z HRRR
shows pockets of >1" rainfall totals and the 18Z HREF shows low
chances (20-30%) for 6-hr QPF > 10yr ARIs in southern UT, northern
AZ, and southeast NV. Upslope enhancement may linger a bit longer
over the San Juan Mountains given their placement farther east and
downwind of the longwave trough. Additional flash flooding is
likely this evening as a result of the lingering efficient
rainfall rates and increasingly sensitive soils.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8pKDTdd8bzTR-Rj2eZnPV3-JS_5LwPlYIvz11EkpfXFiw0Vn6bKOoR0dDtuTFuwLrI7n1H1Txacjh-SdJibIYD4HsQs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39400989 39010901 38770823 38520771 38140723
37350726 37150766 37130892 36910947 36510990
35981035 35111070 34111115 33751153 33701199
33961268 34561354 35241435 36121452 36971430
37631375 38521255 39321069
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 11:57:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121156
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-121755-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Areas affected...Western and Northern AZ...Southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121155Z - 121755Z

SUMMARY...An increase in showers and some thunderstorm activity
may result in some additional areas of flash flooding going
through the morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a gradual uptick in
the coverage of shower activity across areas of western and
northern AZ in association with an ejecting shortwave trough that
is seen lifting northeastward toward the region ahead of a deeper
layer trough farther to the west.

This energy and proximity of a cold front are working in tandem
with a nose of modest instability to facilitate the convective
development. MUCAPE values are locally near 500 J/kg, and the
latest OSPO ALPW data shows a relatively focused channel of
moisture in the 850/700 mb cloud-bearing layer to promote some
relatively efficient convection for locally heavy rainfall rates.

The latest HRRR guidance and the 06Z HREF suite suggest some
additional expansion of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
going through the morning hours as the shortwave energy lifts
across the region. DPVA associated with this along with orographic
ascent over areas of higher terrain will support some localized
enhancement of the convection.

Some spotty 1+ inch/hour rainfall rates will be possible over the
next several hours, and especially across northwest AZ. The latest
hires CAMs suggest some localized swaths of up to 2 inches of rain
being possible where some brief cell-training occurs. Given these
additional rains and the sensitive antecedent conditions on the
ground, some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.
Some of the slot canyon and burn scar locations will be at
greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Ew_rw_GpGhRgtJrel0dwD_psUY4sYGA7LfYiHwSKAf8sm1FhbjBdIjj3nI7UESH4_A_dtWKc6-WymIzbIUJGs6J5fs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38301094 37491009 36041105 34991114 34071112
33481152 33061229 33101322 33411396 34221445
35731443 36761409 37561353 38171254
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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