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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 19:46:54 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 051945
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 051944

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
    northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

    ... Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes ...

    A mid-level shortwave trough will lift northeast on Monday,
    impinging on the central US ridge. Strong southwesterly mid-level
    flow associated with the trough will overspread an increasingly warm
    and moist low-level airmass across the north-central US. Given
    low-level flow will be more southerly, the resulting vertically
    veering profiles will result in effective shear ranging from 35
    knots to more than 50 knots. Forecast soundings indicate that an
    elevated mixed layer should advect over the Plains during the day
    resulting in capping issues for most of the afternoon. However, as
    cooler mid-level temperatures overspread the unstable and sheared
    airmass, afternoon thunderstorms will at least be possible. These
    storms should pose a threat for large hail and, if the storms can
    tap into the boundary layer, strong thunderstorm winds. As the
    low-level jet increases during the evening, an increase in storm
    coverage is expected, with perhaps one or more MCSs evolving across
    portions of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Isolated large hail
    and perhaps damaging winds will be possible.

    ..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 06:23:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 060622
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 060621

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0121 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA TO
    THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
    the Upper Midwest.

    ...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

    An upper trough will move from the northern Plains to the Great
    Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a swath of enhanced deep-layer
    southwesterly flow will overspread the Upper Midwest. At the
    surface, low pressure over Manitoba will continue east/northeast
    through the period, with a trailing cold front sweeping east across
    the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley. A moist airmass
    will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate
    destabilization is forecast. Deep-layer flow will largely remain
    parallel to the surface boundary, but sufficient shear will be
    present for some storm organization. The north and east extent of
    severe potential is a bit uncertain given concern over
    inhibition/timing and modest instability. However, given the
    strength of deep-layer southwesterly flow, some severe risk should
    extend along the length of the surface front from the Upper Midwest
    into the central Plains. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary
    concern with this activity from late afternoon into the nighttime
    hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:28:00 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 061927
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 061926

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
    NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
    the Upper Midwest.

    ... Central Plains to the Upper Midwest ...

    Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of
    the Upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period. These storms
    will be primarily driven by strong warm-air advection along and
    ahead of a surface cold front moving east across the region in
    association with a short-wave trough moving across the southern
    Canadian Prairies. These morning storms may pose a marginal risk for
    hail and wind before weakening during the day as the low-level jet
    veers and weakens.

    In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a moist
    airmass south of the residual surface boundary will result an
    unstable airmass by late afternoon. Large scale forcing for ascent
    along the boundary will be nebulous so local-scale processes will
    likely govern if and where afternoon storms may develop. Vertical
    shear decreases with southward extent, but a threat of large hail
    and damaging winds will be possible with any afternoon
    thunderstorms.

    By late evening into the overnight another short-wave trough will
    quickly race east into the Plains. In response to this feature, the
    low-level jet will once again increase, providing some forcing for
    ascent along isentropic surfaces along and north of the front. These
    storms should be able to tap into elevated instability and
    sufficient cloud-layer shear to support a threat for isolated wind
    and hail overnight.

    ..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 06:36:52 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 070636
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 070635

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0135 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the Midwest on Wednesday.

    ...Midwest...

    An upper trough will progress eastward across the Great Lakes on
    Wednesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow over the region. At the
    surface, a cold front will shift southeast through the period,
    becoming positioned from the Upper Ohio Valley to the TX Panhandle
    by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in
    place. Midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly
    steep, but pockets of weak to moderate instability are forecast,
    particularly across the Lower MO Valley into OH. Morning showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of the cold
    front from Iowa into Lower MI. As the front progresses southeast
    through the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorm
    development is expected across the destabilizing warm sector.

    Deep-layer flow is expected to largely remain parallel to the
    surface boundary. This environment should largely favor a more
    linear storm mode and convection could become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized
    convection and damaging winds appear possible within corridors of
    greater instability into Wednesday evening/early Thursday.

    ..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:46:44 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 071846
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 071845

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0145 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

    ...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
    Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
    and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
    on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
    instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
    strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
    severe weather threat does not appear likely.

    ...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
    A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
    Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
    the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
    south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
    across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
    present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
    and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
    but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
    isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
    exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

    ..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:50:26 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 071849
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 071848

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

    CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

    ...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
    Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
    and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
    on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
    instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
    strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
    severe weather threat does not appear likely.

    ...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
    A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
    Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
    the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
    south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
    across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
    present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
    and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
    but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
    isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
    exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

    ..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:33:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 080632
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 080632

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

    ...Discussion...

    An upper trough will migrate across the Northeast on Thursday, while
    a second upper trough digs southward across the northwestern U.S.
    Stronger flow associated with these features will remain confined to
    the northern Rockies vicinity and over New England. High pressure
    will build over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region in the wake of a
    prior cold frontal passage. A seasonally moist boundary layer will
    be in place from the central/southern High Plains through the southern/southeastern U.S. Pockets of stronger heating and modest destabilization across the warm sector will support scattered
    thunderstorm development. However, generally weak vertical shear
    will limit organized severe potential, especially given a lack of
    focus for severe storm development.

    The exception may be with a strong storm or two across the
    central/southern High Plains in a post-frontal upslope flow regime.
    A stalled front will become diffuse across the area on Thursday, but
    vertically veering wind profiles could result in some modestly
    enhanced vertical shear. Some guidance shows early day convection
    and cloud cover across this area, resulting in uncertainty in storm
    coverage during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, lapse rates
    will remain modest and low-level flow will be weak, precluding
    severe probabilities at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 18:50:32 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 081850
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 081849

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

    ...Discussion...
    As a mid-level trough moves into the western Atlantic on Thursday,
    surface high pressure will build into the Midwest/Great Lakes in its
    wake. South of this high pressure center a front will extend from
    Virginia to the central Plains. An expansive area of precipitation
    is expected along this front at the beginning of the period which
    should result in lesser instability, particularly east of the
    Appalachians. Farther west, moderate instability is expected near
    the front from the Lower Ohio Valley to the southern High Plains.
    Mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be weak across much
    of this zone. Therefore, greater instability and storm clustering
    will likely be necessary for a marginal severe weather threat. This
    may occur across portions of the Ozarks or the southern High Plains,
    but the signal is weak at this time. Therefore, no severe weather
    probabilities are warranted.

    A mid-level trough will translate quickly eastward across the
    Northwest on Thursday with ascent overspreading north-central
    Montana by Thursday night. A few fast-moving storms are expected
    across north-central Montana late Thursday night and early Friday
    morning amid weak instability. Despite the dynamic system, weak
    instability and unfavorable diurnal timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

    ..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 06:25:50 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090625
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090624

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0124 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
    Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
    and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
    cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
    through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
    Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
    hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
    northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
    advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
    midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
    moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
    shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
    may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
    Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
    south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
    Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
    with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 07:00:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090700
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090659

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
    Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
    and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
    cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
    through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
    Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
    hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
    northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
    advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
    midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
    moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
    shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
    may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
    Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
    south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
    Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
    with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 06:40:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 050640
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 050639

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will be situated near James Bay on Wednesday, with a
    broad upper trough enveloping much of eastern Canada. A strong upper
    speed max and tight midlevel temperature gradient will extend
    roughly from MN to the Great Lakes, with gradual height falls across
    the region. Meanwhile, a southern-stream upper jet will extend from
    the Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states. Cool
    midlevel temperatures aloft will be prevalent over the Four Corners
    states with -12 C at 500 mb.

    Minimal instability will be present to support any thunderstorms
    from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, despite the cooling aloft,
    as surface temperatures will be relatively cool. A few low-topped
    showers may affect the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night.

    Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula,
    as a front and surface trough gradually move south. Instability and
    shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe weather chances.

    Elsewhere, daytime heating and the presence of cool temperatures
    aloft will support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
    over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Isolated evening/overnight
    thunderstorms may extend into NE, as southwest 850 mb winds develop
    over the central Plains, aiding meager moisture advection. Severe
    storms appear unlikely.

    ..Jewell.. 10/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 07:07:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 290707
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 290706

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

    Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
    Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.

    ...Southern Plains...
    An upper-level trough will move eastward across the south-central
    U.S. on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the
    southern Plains. Surface heating and increasing low-level
    convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development near
    the front. Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage during
    the afternoon, moving eastward across a zone from southwest, central
    and northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Ahead of the front,
    surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F may result in moderate destabilization across parts of the moist airmass. Storms that
    develop within these pockets of stronger instability could be
    associated with an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly as low-level
    lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. However, deep-layer
    shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, which will marginalize
    any severe threat.

    ..Broyles.. 09/29/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 05:10:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 060510
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 060509

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will move slowly into western Quebec on Thursday, with
    a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft from the northern Plains across
    the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Low-topped convective
    showers may occur over parts of the upper Great Lakes by virtue of
    cold temperatures aloft.

    To the south, high pressure will maintain dry conditions over much
    of the Southeast, the exception being FL where a moist air mass and
    daytime heating will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

    To the west, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur during the
    afternoon over parts of the Four Corners states, and overnight from
    eastern NE into northwest MO. Here, moisture will be the limiting
    factor to any elevated hail chances.

    ..Jewell.. 10/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 19:20:24 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 061920
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 061919

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Thursday and Thursday
    night.

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A large-scale upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on
    Thursday, as mid-level flow becomes west-northwesterly over much of
    the northern U.S. In the southern states, a moist airmass will be
    confined to south Texas and the Florida Peninsula. Scattered storms
    are expect over Florida during the day, and an isolated storm will
    be possible in South Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are also
    expected in the afternoon from the Four Corners region into the
    southern and central Rockies. Elevated storms may also develop in
    parts of the mid Missouri Valley Thursday night. No severe threat is
    forecast across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

    ..Broyles.. 10/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 07:35:32 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 070735
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 070734

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
    NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    An increasing tornado risk may develop into early Saturday morning
    along the north-central Gulf Coast in association with the
    developing tropical cyclone.

    ...Discussion...
    Severe storm chances will be low across most of the CONUS on Friday,
    the exception being over the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night
    into Saturday morning.

    NHC currently forecasts Tropical Depression 9 to become a hurricane
    late Thursday, strengthening further into Friday over the Gulf of
    America. Some uncertainty exists as to the timing of an eventual
    forward acceleration northward. In any case, the system is forecast
    to affect the northern Gulf Coast late in the Day 3 period (which
    ends at 12Z Saturday morning), and as such, low probabilities for
    tornado risk have been added.

    Low-level shear/SRH will be very strong east of the storm center.
    The surface air mass may remain stable over the mainland until very
    close to 12Z Saturday, with a greater chance of larger SBCAPE over
    extreme southeast LA prior to 12Z. Once the coastal boundary moves
    inland, a surge of mid 70s F dewpoints and southerly winds will lead
    to overly enlarged hodographs, supporting rotation in the stronger
    cells with tornado potential.

    ..Jewell.. 10/07/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 19:32:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 071932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 071931

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
    THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AND
    ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A risk for tornadoes may develop across parts of northeastern Gulf
    coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.

    ...Discussion...
    Within the mid-latitude westerlies, it appears that large-scale
    mid-level troughing will undergo substantive further amplification
    across British Columbia through the Pacific Northwest. Downstream
    ridging is forecast to build from the lee of the northern Rockies
    through the upper Great Lakes/northwest Ontario vicinity, with
    large-scale troughing to the east continuing slowly eastward across
    New England and the Canadian Maritimes vicinity.

    In the wake of the lead troughing, the building center of cool
    surface ridging is forecast to shift from the upper Ohio
    Valley/Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic Friday
    through Friday night. At least initially, it appears that the south
    to southwestern flank of this ridging will nose through much of the
    south Atlantic Coast into eastern Gulf Coast states.

    At the same time, Isaias is forecast to approach and migrate inland
    of the northeastern Gulf coast as a hurricane, in advance of
    high-level troughing which models suggest will begin accelerating
    northeast of the Texas coastal plain vicinity by early Friday.
    Model spread remains sizable concerning this trough and the track of
    the tropical cyclone, however.

    ...Northeastern Gulf Coast...
    Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for the latest
    NHC forecast track of Isaias. Based on the accelerating northward
    motion of this system, evolving hodographs and forcing for ascent
    conditionally most conducive to supercell structures with potential
    to produce tornadoes could become focused well to the
    north-northeast of the cyclone center. This may begin overspreading
    coastal areas by early Friday evening, if not earlier. Even as this
    shifts northward, well inland of coastal areas, it is possible that
    hodographs, at least, will remain conditionally supportive of a
    continuing risk for supercells with tornadoes as far south as areas near/west-northwest of the Florida Big Bend through daybreak.

    The primary uncertainty with regard to the risk for tornadoes
    concerns a preceding influx of potentially cool/stable
    boundary-layer air as far south as coastal areas, which may remain
    inhibitive through the period. Based on 07/12Z NAM (with a track
    similar, but perhaps slower than the official forecast track)
    forecast soundings, low-level thermodynamic profiles do not become
    conducive to an appreciable risk for tornadoes until late Friday
    night, generally near/northwest of the Florida Big Bend. This may
    be in the wake of the better large-scale forcing for ascent.

    ..Kerr.. 10/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 07:31:58 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 080731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 080730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
    PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle
    and into parts of Georgia and eastern Alabama on Saturday.

    ...Southeastern States...
    As Isaias merges with the developing shortwave trough over the Lower
    MS Valley on Saturday, moderate to strong wind fields will develop
    over much of the Southeast. East of the surface low track, strong
    southerly low-level winds will aid northward movement of moisture
    and instability from the FL Panhandle northward across eastern AL
    and across much of GA and the eastern Carolinas.

    It is anticipated that severe storms may be ongoing within a
    north-south oriented band east of the low, roughly from the FL
    Panhandle into far eastern AL and southwest GA. Some of the early
    day cells near or south of the effective warm front may produce
    tornadoes as low-level shear will be very strong. This threat area
    should lift north during the day across AL and GA. It should be
    noted that depending on the exact surface low track and warm front
    position, the Slight Risk area may be adjusted in later outlooks.

    Overnight, the warm front will continue to lift north, with
    additional destabilization possible toward the southern
    Appalachians, and Carolinas. A low severe probability has been added
    for the night time scenario, which should see generally lesser (but
    still favorable) shear values and boundary layer instability.

    ...AZ...
    The remnants of Rachel are forecast to spread across the region late
    Saturday into Sunday. As this occurs, moisture and instability will
    increase, as well as deep layer shear as a shortwave trough moves
    toward the region. Given the nocturnal timing of destabilization,
    and substantial model differences, will defer possible severe
    probabilities to later outlooks. At this time, it appears isolated
    cells cannot be ruled out into Sunday morning, but severe potential
    will depend heavily on proper destabilization.

    ..Jewell.. 10/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 05:53:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 020553
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 020551

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A large-scale upper trough will continue to deepen Sunday as the
    parent low moves out of Ontario and into western Quebec. A leading
    shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes into the
    Northeast, with an attendant cold front. However, little if any
    instability will be present to support thunderstorms.

    Behind the leading wave, a secondary and stronger backside speed max
    will nose into the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, with another
    surface high building across much of the Midwest.

    Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from the TX Coast to
    FL, where low-level moisture and instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE)
    will exist. Weak shear and warm temperatures aloft will not favor
    severe storms.

    ..Jewell.. 10/02/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 19:26:36 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 021926
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 021924

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A deep midlevel trough will move from the Great Lakes to New
    England, as upstream ridging persists from the Four Corners into the
    Great Basin. A previously stalled front will be reinforced and will
    begin to move southeastward across the southern states, in the wake
    of the Great Lakes midlevel trough. A moisture plume will persist
    along and ahead of the front, with sufficient buoyancy for embedded thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, in an environment with
    weak vertical shear. Elsewhere, isolated/diurnal convection with a
    few lightning flashes will be possible over the high terrain of
    southwest CO. Farther west, a weak midlevel trough over the eastern
    Pacific will approach northern CA/OR by late Sunday. There is low
    potential for enough moistening/ascent to support isolated lightning
    flashes. However, the threat appears sufficiently low to preclude
    adding a thunderstorm area for CA/OR in this update.

    ..Thompson.. 10/02/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 20:04:12 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 081931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 081930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
    PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ALABAMA INTO
    GEORGIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle
    and into parts of eastern Alabama and Georgia Saturday through
    Saturday night.

    ...Discussion...
    Models indicate considerable further amplification of large-scale
    mid/upper troughing along much of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday
    through Saturday night. It appears that this may include the east-northeastward acceleration of a short wave trough into/across
    southern California and northern Baja coastal areas, preceded by the
    inland acceleration of remnants of Rachel into the lower Colorado
    Valley by 12Z Sunday.

    Downstream, broad mid/upper ridging is forecast to build within the
    stronger mid-latitude westerlies, east of the Rockies through the
    Atlantic Seaboard. However, within a lingering weaker branch of
    westerlies, a developing mid-level low, including remnants of
    Isaias, is forecast to begin gradually turning northward and
    northeastward, around the northwestern periphery of westward
    building mid/upper ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic
    through the northern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.

    ...Southeast...
    The weakening low-level circulation center of Isaias is forecast to
    continue accelerating northward, across western Alabama during the
    day Saturday, before slowing across the lower Tennessee Valley
    Saturday night. As it progresses away from the Gulf coast, and
    increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture return off
    the Gulf, the associated risk for severe weather seems likely to
    diminish.

    Guidance suggests that the return of higher low-level moisture
    content will remain focused along/east of weak surface troughing,
    developing along the southwestern flank of a surface ridge slowly
    shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic coastal
    areas. It appears that this will generally set up across Georgia
    into parts of the Carolinas, where boundary-layer dew points
    increasing into the 70s F probably will contribute to at least
    modest CAPE on the order of 1000+ J/kg, despite weak lapse rates.
    Coupled with the maintenance of at least moderate southerly 850
    flow, and enlarged low-level hodographs, forcing for ascent
    downstream of the approaching mid-level low/trough may support
    continuing convective development, including supercell structures,
    Saturday into Saturday night. Some of this activity may pose a risk
    for tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

    Due to lingering forecast uncertainties, including those associated
    with the extended time frame involved, the Slight Risk area has not
    been changed at the present time. However, this may need to be
    adjusted in later outlooks for this period.

    ..Kerr.. 10/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:39:34 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090729
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090728

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
    THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
    COLORADO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    few tornadoes appear possible over portions of the Carolinas into
    the Delmarva Sunday into Sunday evening, and parts of the lower
    Colorado Valley mainly Sunday morning.

    ...Synopsis...

    A mid/upper-level low over KY/TN Sunday morning is forecast to
    evolve into an open wave within a broader-scale trough progressing
    through the central and southern Appalachians toward the Atlantic
    Coast. Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel initially
    over southern CA will become increasingly sheared within a broad
    belt of enhanced midlevel flow extending from the Desert Southwest
    into the central Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure
    will develop from KY into the upper OH Valley with secondary
    cyclogenesis forecast on Sunday afternoon in the lee of the Blue
    Ridge over central VA. That cyclone will be collocated with a
    surface trough advancing east through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain
    and a warm front lifting north through the southern Mid-Atlantic.


    ...Delmarva into the Carolinas...

    Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast
    on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable
    cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air
    mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector.
    Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s
    will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas
    where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively
    strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe
    storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will
    exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather
    probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model
    data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.


    ...Lower Colorado and Vicinity...

    As detailed in the recently issued Day 2 Convective Outlook, the
    enhancement of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent will coincide
    with an at least modestly unstable air mass late Saturday night into
    early Sunday. That regime is likely to persist through at least
    Sunday morning with an associated risk for a few severe storms
    capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The
    overall weakening of the midlevel trough by afternoon and limited
    instability lead to uncertainty as to whether any severe weather
    threat will spread north into the Great Basin and central Rockies.

    ..Mead.. 10/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 19:22:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 031921
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 031920

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper low will continue to intensify as it moves quickly eastward
    over the Northeast States and eventually offshore on Monday. In the
    wake of the wave, northwesterly flow aloft will intensify as
    expansive ridging develops across the central US. A surface cold
    front near the Gulf Coast will continue to meander southward, with
    high pressure and subsequent northeasterly low-level winds behind
    it. Robust moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast states,
    but with only weak instability and vertical shear overlap. Thus,
    scatted thunderstorms are likely, but with little to no severe
    potential.

    Elsewhere, cool mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse
    rates (8-8.5 C/km) beneath an upper-level shortwave trough may
    support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great
    Basin late Monday into early Tuesday. However, limited moisture and
    buoyancy suggest overall coverage/intensity will remain limited.

    ..Lyons.. 10/03/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 06:50:16 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 040649
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 040649

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are unlikely on Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A deep upper trough will quickly move out of eastern Quebec and New
    England on Tuesday, with a secondary lower-amplitude trough diving
    southeast across Ontario and Upper Great Lakes. This northwest flow
    regime will generally maintain high pressure over much of the
    central and eastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds near the
    Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. As such, available moisture and
    instability will remain largely offshore, except over FL where
    afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Severe storms are unlikely due
    to the weak shear/lapse rate environment.

    Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect the
    eastern Great Basin into western CO, as a weak midlevel wave moves
    over the area with cool temperatures aloft. Severe storms are
    unlikely given weak instability and shear.

    ..Jewell.. 10/04/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 19:28:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 041928
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 041927

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A strong upper low, initially over the East Coast, will continue to
    move offshore as a second broader trough and strong jet move into
    the northern US from southern Canada. The increasingly strong
    northwesterly flow aloft and a surface cold front will reinforce a
    cooler and stable high pressure air mass over much of the central
    and eastern CONUS. Northerly offshore surface winds extending to the
    Gulf and Atlantic Coasts will limit available moisture for much of
    the US.

    Thunderstorm chances will be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast
    and FL where weak shear and poor lapse rates should preclude any
    organized severe risk. Additional scattered showers and
    thunderstorms may affect the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners
    region as a weak midlevel wave moves over the area steepening
    low/mid-level lapse rates. Storm coverage should remain low and a
    severe risk is unlikely given weak instability and deep-layer shear.

    ..Lyons.. 10/04/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)