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  • DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 07:51:36 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 060751
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060749

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes and over
    the Northeast through Day 5/Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front
    will develop southeast and east across much of the Midwest and
    Northeast. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could
    develop near the front, especially on Wednesday across parts of the
    Midwest. However, deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to
    the boundary and stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the
    north of better instability.

    Lower amplitude westerly upper-level flow is expected on Day
    6/Friday before another upper trough digs southeast across the
    western U.S. and emerges into the Plains by Day 8/Sunday. Some
    severe potential could return to the Plains during the weekend as
    low-level moisture returns across the region and lee cyclogenesis
    occurs with the approach of the late-period upper trough. Trends
    will be monitored and probabilities may become necessary across
    parts of the central Plains vicinity if confidence in severe
    potential increase.

    ..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 07:34:00 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 070733
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070732

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spread east across the
    Northeast on Day 4/Thursday. As this occurs, a surface cold front
    will shift east/southeast across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic.
    A moist airmass will be in place, but vertical shear will weaken
    through the day and deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the
    surface boundary. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of the
    front, but may tend to be just to the cool side of the boundary.
    Nevertheless, some low-end severe potential could develop from the
    Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as the front sags southward across
    the region.

    During the weekend into early next week, forecast guidance suggests
    a more progressive upper pattern will emerge across the northern
    tier of the U.S. A series of shortwave upper troughs will move from
    the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast
    during this time. Some severe risk is likely to develop ahead of the
    upper shortwave troughs around the Day 5/Friday to Day 8/Monday time
    period. However, large spread exists in both the timing and
    intensity of these upper trough, resulting in vastly different
    evolution and timing of key surface features (mainly surface low
    position). These differences have large implications for where the
    best corridors of severe potential will ultimately develop, but
    severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks for
    portions the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest during the
    weekend.

    ..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 07:26:44 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 080726
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 080724

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity...

    Severe potential could develop across portions of the Plains into
    the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Friday as boundary layer moisture spreads
    northward ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Moderate to
    strong destabilization ahead of the front, and enhanced vertical
    shear courtesy of a modest upper shortwave trough moving across the
    northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, should be sufficient for
    organized convection mainly from Friday evening into early Saturday.

    Some severe potential could persist into Day 5 Saturday as the
    surface front stalls over the central/southern Plains vicinity but
    continues eastward across the upper Great Lakes region. A moist
    boundary layer will be in place, but stronger flow aloft will become
    increasing displaced to the north of stronger instability,
    precluding 15 percent delineation at this time.

    ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue...

    An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will develop eastward
    across the Plains and Great Lakes early next week. Another cold
    front will move across the area, and some severe potential could
    again sweep across the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
    vicinity. Medium range forecast guidance generally maintains
    stronger instability offset from enhanced flow aloft, partly due to
    the early cold frontal passage in the Day 4-5/Friday-Saturday time
    frame and strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in the
    wake of that frontal passage. Trends will be monitored and
    probabilities could become necessary in later outlooks.

    ..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 07:29:22 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 090729
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 090727

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0227 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Sat - Central Plains...

    A cold front will stall across the central Plains on Saturday.
    Low-level east/southeasterly flow will maintain rich boundary layer
    moisture across KS and into eastern CO. Early day convection may be
    ongoing in the vicinity of the stalled boundary within the low-level
    warm advection regime. It is uncertain if airmass recovery and
    renewed thunderstorm development will occur within the unstable warm
    sector given nebulous large-scale ascent and modest vertical shear.
    While low severe potential may eventually evolve, probability
    appears less than 15 percent at this time.

    ...Days 5-6/Sun-Mon -- Central Plains to the Great Lakes...

    An upper trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies to the
    Great Lakes through early Day 7/Tuesday. This will bring enhanced
    southwesterly flow to portions of the northern/central Plains into
    the Great Lakes, particularly on Monday. With the approach of the
    trough, lee low development is forecast across the northern/central
    High Plains on Sunday. Increasing southerly low-level flow will
    transport moisture northward to NE/SD ahead of a
    southeastward-advancing cold front. This could support some severe
    risk across parts of the northern/central Plains and Mid-MO Valley
    vicinity on Sunday. However, large spread exists among forecast
    guidance with regards to the surface low placement, northward extent
    of moisture return, and frontal position. As a result, corridors of
    greater severe potential are uncertain on Sunday.

    As the upper trough continues to lift east/northeast through the
    Great Lakes on Monday, severe potential could develop eastward into
    parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes vicinity.
    Stronger deep-layer flow may become displaced to the north of better instability, and similarly large model spread continues into this
    time frame. Depending on trends, severe probabilities could
    eventually be needed for Sunday and/or Monday.

    ...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed...

    Lower amplitude, quasi-zonal flow is expected to develop by the end
    of the forecast period as the early-week uppers shortwave trough
    lifts into eastern Canada and the sub-tropical high begins to
    rebuild over the southern U.S. This should largely limit severe
    potential, though abundant moisture will reside from the southern
    Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic and daily sporadic strong
    storms could still occur.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 08:59:16 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 050859
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 050857

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Little severe weather threat is evident from Thur/D4 through Fri/D5,
    as a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast maintain
    cool conditions, with high pressure over much of the eastern states
    preventing moisture return.

    For late Sat/D6 into Sun/D7, conditional severe potential may
    develop along the northern Gulf Coast, depending on the evolution of
    a tropical disturbance currently over the southwest Gulf of America.
    NHC currently denotes a 50% chance of cyclone development. A weak
    midlevel trough is also forecast to develop over TX, and move across
    the Gulf Coast states during the same time. The combination of
    increasing moisture and shear could result in an area of tornado
    potential. Any such event is highly conditional on cyclone
    formation, and potential will continue to be monitored.

    From Sun/D7 and beyond, models suggest a western trough may develop,
    though model spread is high.

    ..Jewell.. 10/05/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 08:47:56 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 290847
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 290845

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

    Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Over the weekend, the pattern will consist of a large-scale trough
    over the northeastern U.S.. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast
    to move eastward through the flow. A cold front appears likely to
    move from the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys southward to
    near the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
    possible each afternoon ahead of the front. Deep-layer shear is
    expected to be too weak for a severe threat.

    Early next week, mid-level flow is forecast to be west-northwesterly
    over much of the nation. A relatively cool and dry airmass will be
    in place over most of the continental U.S. The exception could be
    along parts of the immediate Gulf Coast, where moisture and
    instability may be sufficient for thunderstorm development. The
    severe threat is expected to be minimal.

    ..Broyles.. 09/29/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 08:14:24 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 060814
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060812

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0312 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on
    Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary
    upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be
    along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave
    will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone
    may develop toward the central Gulf of America.

    Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction
    along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential
    tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of
    this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out
    of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded
    thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4
    night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool
    due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge
    air mass.

    At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet
    sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the
    developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low.
    Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement
    the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with
    tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the
    coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther
    inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west
    zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some
    additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

    For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an
    amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening
    will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually
    result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however,
    predictability is quite low at this time.

    ..Jewell.. 10/06/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 08:31:54 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 060831
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 060829

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    A surface high will move from the OH Valley into the Northeast on
    Fri/D4 as an upper trough lifts out of the region and temporary
    upper ridging occurs. A stationary boundary is still forecast to be
    along the northern Gulf Coast at this time, and a weak midlevel wave
    will begin to form over TX. Meanwhile, a potential tropical cyclone
    may develop toward the central Gulf of America.

    Low-level winds will begin to veer to a southeasterly direction
    along the Gulf Coast late Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, as the potential
    tropical cyclone evolves. NHC currently gives a high probability of
    this occurring. As such, an influx of rich moisture will develop out
    of the south, with a substantial rain shield and embedded
    thunderstorms likely along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Fri/D4
    night. Initially, surface temperatures over land will remain cool
    due to precipitation and initial modification of the surface ridge
    air mass.

    At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet
    sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the
    developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low.
    Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement
    the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with
    tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the
    coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther
    inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west
    zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some
    additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

    For the period Mon/D7 into Tue/D8, models are now developing an
    amplified upper trough over the western CONUS. Low-level moistening
    will be most prominent later in the period, and could eventually
    result in a zone of strong to severe storm potential, however,
    predictability is quite low at this time.

    ..Jewell.. 10/06/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 08:28:04 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 070827
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 070826

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought
    the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward
    southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk
    for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the
    likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the
    Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it
    appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern
    AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing
    midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS
    Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It
    should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent
    outlooks if the center track shifts.

    For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical
    cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians
    and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible
    that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least
    a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.

    For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe
    storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing
    western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level
    moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough
    and date of wave ejection is low predictability.

    ..Jewell.. 10/07/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 08:23:36 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 080823
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 080821

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    On Sun/D4, a shortwave trough and surface low (previously associated
    with the tropical cyclone) will move east across the TN/OH Valleys,
    and toward the Mid Atlantic Sunday night. A warm front and northward
    surge of moisture will occur from GA/Carolinas into VA/DelMarVa,
    resulting in at least a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Substantial rain
    and thunderstorms are likely to exist over the region, and therefore
    boundary layer warming/destabilization is in question. Most models
    show little if any daytime heating. As such, predictability is low
    at this time, but at least low severe probabilities could be added
    in later outlooks as the scenario evolves.

    To the west, a shortwave trough with tropical remnants will affect
    southern CA and AZ, with strong southwest winds aloft. Substantial
    model differences exist regarding destabilization due to increasing
    clouds and rain, though some severe wind and even hail potential
    cannot be ruled out where instability is locally higher. This area
    too may see at least low severe probabilities in later outlooks as predictability increases.

    For the remainder of the period through Thu/D8, a potential western
    trough ejection may occur into the Plains, with the strongest
    instability on or after Wed/D7 as moisture return becomes more
    established with upper 60s F dewpoints possible from TX into OK and
    KS. As such, this area will also be monitored as the event nears,
    and as trough timing becomes more predictable.

    ..Jewell.. 10/08/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 08:18:50 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 020818
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 020817

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Severe storm potential from Monday/D4 to Friday/D8 is forecast to be
    minimal.

    A deep upper trough will move across eastern Canada and the
    northeastern USA Mon/D4 into Tue/D5, with a cold front already
    offshore and high pressure building in from the west. Behind the
    ejecting upper trough, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist
    across the northern tier of states, with some trough amplification
    possible over the Great Lakes Wed/D6 into Fri/D8. That said, a
    minimally unstable air mass will exist over most of the CONUS, with
    little severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms cannot
    be ruled out around Thu/D7 over the upper Midwest beneath the
    northwest flow regime, but this low-predictability scenario will
    depend heavily on enough moisture returning to the region. As such,
    no areas are currently forecast.

    ..Jewell.. 10/02/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:40:14 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 090905
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 090903

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble
    guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada
    or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while
    progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter,
    model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

    ...Day 4/Monday...

    Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon
    along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least
    modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer
    shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude
    ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with
    uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the
    threat too questionable to include a 15% area.


    ...Day 5/Tuesday...

    Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the
    central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a
    deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a
    front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into
    the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into
    eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear
    possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into
    the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential
    appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains
    Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone
    and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for
    ascent and vertical shear will coincide.


    ...Day 6/Wednesday...

    As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a
    short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will
    advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are
    slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the
    midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these
    differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm
    sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible
    with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern
    KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable
    overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated
    area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast
    confidence increases.


    ...Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday...

    Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH
    Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough
    discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized
    severe storm potential is currently too low given the model
    variability in the specific details of the trough and associated
    frontal system.

    ..Mead.. 10/09/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 09:02:08 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 040901
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 040900

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    For Wed/D4 through about Fri/D6, severe chances will be minimal
    across the CONUS as a broad upper trough affects the Great Lakes
    into the Northeast, with high pressure keeping the higher dewpoints
    primarily offshore over the Gulf of America.

    For late Fri/D6 into Sun/D8, predictability becomes low as models
    indicate a possible tropical cyclone over parts of the southwestern
    Gulf of America (NHC 30% change of cyclone formation). This, along
    with a possible weak shortwave trough developing over TX/northern
    Gulf Coast, could result in a rapid northward surge of tropical
    moisture and enhanced shear. This area will be monitored in upcoming
    outlooks as the situation evolves.

    ..Jewell.. 10/04/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)