176
WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest
AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with
organized deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear,
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the
southern side of the circulation largely away from the center.
Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in
the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt
classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical
Storm Dolly.

The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue
moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong
ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance
is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and
the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the
guidance envelope. This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA
model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and
poleward in the tropical Atlantic.

The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for
strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus. All of our guidance
is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it
reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely
coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV
Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone
when it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin
to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 13.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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