721
WTNT45 KNHC 311456
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The disturbance (AL97) that the NHC has been tracking over the
northern Gulf of America continues to produce a small area of
showers and thunderstorms with modest signs of organization.
Overnight scatterometer data indicated the circulation lacked
definition on the western side, and recent surface observations and
data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters suggest the center is
still elongated and ill defined. However, given the expectation that
the system will become a tropical cyclone, and the risk of tropical
storm conditions for portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, we
are initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The
initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 30 kt based on the
overnight scatterometer data.

The initial motion is uncertain given the system is still in its
formative stage, but our best estimate is west-northwestward (285/4
kt). The track models agree that the system should continue
west-northwestward during the next day or so and approach the Upper
Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast within the warning area on
Tuesday. The official NHC track forecast lies very near the HFIP
corrected consensus (HCCA), near the center of the guidance
envelope. A 48-h post-tropical forecast point is shown for
continuity, but the system will likely be dissipated by that time.

The small system is located over SSTs greater than 30 deg C, and the deep-layer shear appears fairly weak as diagnosed from the SHIPS
guidance. Some strengthening is expected before the system reaches
the coast on Tuesday, as long as it is able to develop a more
cohesive tropical cyclone structure. Since the center is predicted
to move onshore between 24-36 h, additional strengthening could
occur between those forecast points that cannot be reflected in the
official forecast. Given the anticipated small size of the system,
it could be prone to quicker intensity changes, so additional
strengthening beyond what is shown cannot be ruled out. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the top of the latest guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to bring tropical
storm conditions to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts on Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line,
Louisiana.

2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday and
Wednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely
across this region, especially in urban areas.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the Upper
Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 27.8N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0000Z 28.3N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1200Z 29.1N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 29.9N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


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