WTPN21 PGTW 310730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300730ZAUG26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.4N 132.6E TO 23.2N 133.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.6N 132.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.6N 133.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 268
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI DAITO JIMA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH ELEVATED WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG BOTH ENDS OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH
EXTENDS FROM TAIWAN TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
THE CENTER OF THE LLCC WILL BE PRONE TO SHIFTING ALONG THIS TROUGH
AXIS, EITHER TOWARD THE WEST AND CLOSER TO OKINAWA OR EAST AND FURTHER
AWAY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, OFFSET BY A NARROW BAND OF DRY AIR
SEPARATING THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CIRCULATION. THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS CURRENTLY OVER 100 NM. HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE WIND FIELD IS NEEDED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WHILE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
AGREE ON GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS GENERALLY QUASI- STATIONARY, THE PRECISE FORMATION LOCATION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS LESS CERTAIN. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 300730).

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010730Z.//
NNNN


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