105
WTNT45 KNHC 011446
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Edouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has
been trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles,
Louisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of
the system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable
increase in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and
a recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary
layer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably
strengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these
data to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial
intensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional strengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very
warm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane
regional models continue to highlight the potential for continued strengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard
is well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected
that cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of
the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved
radar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional
strengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU)
beginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely
to rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday.

Some short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the
past few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is
northwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to
continue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard
onshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this
afternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The
updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the
previous prediction based on the latest consensus trends.


Key Messages:

1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf
Coast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the
southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron
later today.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from
High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana,
where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible.

3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday
as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this
region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be
possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 29.4N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 30.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)