WTPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.7N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.0N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.7N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 116.0E. 01SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 17W
(SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND
021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

From WDPN32:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD,
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU
36. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE NER MOVES OFF TO THE WEST, CAUSING TRACK SPEEDS
TO SLOW. NEAR TAU 48, A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA IS
EXPECTED TO GAIN CONTROL AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, TURNING
17W RATHER SHARPLY WESTWARD. 17W WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, SKIRTING THE COAST OF CHINA, NEAR HONG KONG.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 17W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO
THE ASYMMETRY IN THE WIND FIELD AND WEAK OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36,
INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN THE VORTEX. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 72,
NORTH OF HONG KONG. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE SHARPLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AND STAYS OVER WATER RATHER THAN TRACKING INLAND,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.

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