WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.3N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.4N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 24.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.2N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.5N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.4N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 132.8E. 01SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 22W
(KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z,
020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: THE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATED 65 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPECTED STORM POSITION BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.//

From WDPN31:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS PLACED WITHIN THE
COMPETING STEERING PATTERN. AFTER TAU 12, THE NER TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE WEST, ALLOWING FOR THE STR TO BECOME
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THIS WILL CAUSE 22W TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 60, NEAR THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. AFTER TAU 60,
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO BE PLACED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AFTER TAU 60, BUT THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 AS A BUILDING NER TO THE SOUTH LOOSELY CONTROLS THE STEERING. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 22W IS FORECAST TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 60 AS
THE BROAD VORTEX ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST FILLS. AFTER TAU 60, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 120.

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