1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER.TROPIC

  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 37

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 08:51:22 2026
    811
    WTNT41 KNHC 290850
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 37
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
    500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

    Proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the convection around Fay
    has increasingly become more sheared in the last several hours.
    Infrared imagery does still show some of the convection has cloud
    tops near -70 C. In addition, the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was
    2.0/30 KT, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are
    in the range of 33-43 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been
    held at 35 kt for this advisory.

    The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated
    initial motion of 235/11 kt. Fay is expected to keep a general
    southwestward to west-southwestward motion for the next couple of
    days as the cyclone is guided by the flow along the southern
    periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic.
    The current NHC track forecast is almost identical to the previous
    one with just a few minor adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI
    forecast aids.

    With the convection expected to pulsate for the next couple of days,
    the intensity will also fluctuate as well. However that convection
    will likely become increasingly separated from the center as the
    SHIPS guidance indicates increasing vertical wind shear over the
    couple of days. Based on the global models, Fay will struggle to
    maintain deep convection as it moves into a more stable air mass and
    an area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity
    forecast is based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance and Fay is
    still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so.
    The global models show the system degenerating into a trough
    afterwards.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 29/1800Z 24.0N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 30/0600Z 23.1N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
    36H 30/1800Z 22.7N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 01/0600Z 22.6N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Katz


    = = = = = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)