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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 38

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 14:49:48 2026
    813
    WTNT41 KNHC 291449
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 38
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
    1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

    Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
    completely exposed and all the deep convection sheared well to the
    southwest. This remaining convection continues to be displaced
    further and further away from the low-level center. Recent satellite
    intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB have trended downward to
    around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this
    advisory is lowered to 30 kt, making Fay a tropical depression once
    again.

    Fay is moving southwestward, or 225/10 kt, steered by a mid-level
    ridge located over the central Atlantic. This general motion is
    expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast
    period. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update to
    the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with HCCA corrected-consensus aid.

    The depression is expected to continue to deal with increasing
    vertical wind shear, which should limit convection near the
    low-level center. As Fay moves into a more stable airmass, global
    models are in good agreement that the cyclone will become completely
    devoid of deep convection by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity
    forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at
    that time, before opening into a trough shortly thereafter. Given
    the increasingly hostile environment, it is entirely possible that
    the system could become post-tropical or dissipate even earlier than
    currently forecast.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 29/1500Z 24.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)