338
WTNT34 KNHC 092052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS...
...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SEEKING SAFE SHELTER...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Isaias is moving
toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. A north-northeastward to
northeastward motion is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track,
Isaias is expected to make landfall along the coast of the western
Florida Panhandle this evening. The center is then expected to move
across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Isaias makes landfall this evening. Weakening is expected to begin
tonight after landfall, and Isaias is forecast to become
post-tropical on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 58
mph (93 km/h) was recently measured at Fair Point Light 2 near Gulf
Breeze, Florida. A wind gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) was reported at
the Pensacola Naval Air Station.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft
Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft
Lower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Upper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Within the Hurricane Warning area, tropical storm conditions
are now occurring, and hurricane conditions are expected this
evening into early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds are expected to
spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern
Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the
tropical storm warning areas.

RAINFALL: From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama,
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized
totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2
to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and
coastal Carolinas.

Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. Considerable flash
flooding and landslides are also possible across the Southern
Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: The risk for tornadoes this afternoon in the Florida
Panhandle will continue into this evening and tonight across the
Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. The
tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern
Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of
the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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